GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

We urge our readers to keep their eyes firmly focused on the essentials, amidst the feel-good mood encompassing the EMs and Turkey. The nation is nowhere close to reaching herd immunity via vaccination, as new strains are running rampant in the population. Each day with lockdowns and shop clos...

Turkey and Azerbaijan conduct combined military manoeuvres on Armenian frontier

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Feb 2021

On February 2 the two countries' armies exercised in eastern Turkey. This was close to the frontier with Armenia. Turkish troops are openly stationed in Azerbaijan. Up till now Azerbaijan has not sent a significant number of troops to Turkey.The ostensible reason for the drill was to practice fig...

Russia fines nickel giant USD 2 billion

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Feb 2021

On February 5 a court fined Nornickel for the environmental disaster it caused in 2020 when 21,000 tonnes of diesel was spilled in the Krasnoyarsk Region. It was the worst disaster to hit the Arctic.The fine imposed is a record. Nornickel has argued the fine should be only USD 280 million. The ac...

GULF WEEKLY: Biden focuses on Yemen, Kuwait on negative outlook, BP sells Oman gas stake

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Feb 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Restrictions expanded across the region in response to the current Covid wave. * Oil has risen to $59, the most in nearly a year, supported by the voluntary Saudi cuts. *...

GDP set to grow more than 7% in 2021

CHINA · Forecast · 05 Feb 2021

We forecast Chinese GDP to rise 7% in 2021, less than our peers’ forecasts of around 8%. Our forecast is based on the global economic uncertainty brought on by the pandemic, and the significant chance that China will take countercyclical measures to address structural reforms. GDP climbed 2.3% y/...

2021–2022 Outlook: Crony Capitalism

VENEZUELA · Forecast · 05 Feb 2021

This report lays out our central scenario outlook for 2021–2022, which we call Crony Capitalism. It assumes that the regime stays in power and keeps its policy framework essentially unchanged. Economic policy is pragmatic to a degree, but the government is unable to meaningfully improve expectati...

Russian macro: money markets becoming less distorted in 2021 as Minfin’s meddling set to subside

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Feb 2021

Ruble liquidity tightened in 4Q20 and continued to do so in January, as well, despite massive spending from the federal budget at the very end of the year. In December alone the government spent R3.9 trln (versus R2.1 trln in November). The federal budget deficit reached R1.7 trln in December, a...

Taxes hikes and ISA sale to raise pandemic funds

COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Feb 2021

Increasing the scope of the welfare state and strengthening the state presence nationally, two key tenets of the 1991 Constitution, have raised government spending over the last three decades. Given the public spending pressures generated by the pandemic, and the need to start a fiscal adjustment...

Politics: Local and global barriers to the vaccination effort

MEXICO · Report · 01 Feb 2021

The spread of Covid-19 in Mexico has proven much worse this winter than had been expected, with no break in sight. The latest evidence points out that the country is among the worst nations in managing the pandemic. Despite the gravity of the situation, the government failed to rectify its mis...

A more agitated political environment in Brasilia and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Feb 2021

Congress and Superior Courts resume activity. In the Senate, the election for the presidency is scheduled for Monday, February 1, at 4pm, and in the House, at 7pm. The truckers’ strike scheduled for this Monday is unlikely to receive much support. Material for the production of the CoronaVac vacc...

Economics: Data heightens 2021 economic tasks

MEXICO · Report · 01 Feb 2021

The economic news of the past month showed some signs of an easing of the recessionary panorama as the -3.3% yoy fall in industrial activity for November was one of the least pronounced negative results of 2020 thanks largely to gains in some components of the manufacturing sector. However, the d...

A longer-lasting trade surplus

INDONESIA · Report · 01 Feb 2021

Indonesia has enjoyed a number of commodities booms in the past few decades. These range from sugar, to rubber, to oil, with the most recent being the coal and CPO booms. These rapid periods of growth in commodities helped the trade balance and also increased the welfare of the people, which even...

A chance for negotiations in 2021

VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Feb 2021

This year may bring mediated talks between Venezuela’s regime and opposition. The United States and European Union both want to push for a negotiated solution to Venezuela’s crisis that leads to competitive elections, making sure the required institutional changes are implemented. Maduro ha...

Special Report - Why did Armenia lose the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

CIS POLITICS · Report · 01 Feb 2021

Now that the dust has settled on the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict the pundits have been able to opine on the reasons for Armenia’s heavy defeat. They have also been able to draw inferences from how the two nations fought and why one emerged so patently on top. The conflict ended with a ceasefire ...

Q&A on politics and the economy

TURKEY · Report · 31 Jan 2021 · 1 response

Support for both President Erdogan and the AKP-MHP alliance seem to be declining in the polls, as the epidemic flares up once again, while poverty and unemployment are wreaking havoc across the nation. The base-case scenario is Turkey remaining under restrictions through the second quarter of the...