GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On February 5 President Zelensky announced that his country will be given millions more doses of AstraZeneca and Novavax. The vaccines are being purchased from India mostly. The first consignment will arrive in late February 2021.The government has been castigated for not obtaining Western vaccin...

Russia fines nickel giant USD 2 billion

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Feb 2021

On February 5 a court fined Nornickel for the environmental disaster it caused in 2020 when 21,000 tonnes of diesel was spilled in the Krasnoyarsk Region. It was the worst disaster to hit the Arctic.The fine imposed is a record. Nornickel has argued the fine should be only USD 280 million. The ac...

Russia declares several EU diplomats PNG

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Feb 2021

On February 4 Moscow announced the expulsion of certain Swedish, Polish and German diplomats. The diplomats supposedly attended unauthorized protests on January 23. The protests were for the release of Alexei Navalny. All demonstrations in Russia require police permission. The EU's foreign minist...

Russia political/pandemic update: Epidemiological situation stabilizes, politics gets more intriguing

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Feb 2021

In the aftermath of the New Year holiday period, the country’s daily registered cases of newly infected people fell from around 27K (where they were at the very end of 2020) to 16-17K as of early February. Even though the authorities did not tighten restrictions, it looks as though Russians mostl...

GULF WEEKLY: Biden focuses on Yemen, Kuwait on negative outlook, BP sells Oman gas stake

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Feb 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Restrictions expanded across the region in response to the current Covid wave. * Oil has risen to $59, the most in nearly a year, supported by the voluntary Saudi cuts. *...

GDP set to grow more than 7% in 2021

CHINA · Forecast · 05 Feb 2021

We forecast Chinese GDP to rise 7% in 2021, less than our peers’ forecasts of around 8%. Our forecast is based on the global economic uncertainty brought on by the pandemic, and the significant chance that China will take countercyclical measures to address structural reforms. GDP climbed 2.3% y/...

2021–2022 Outlook: Crony Capitalism

VENEZUELA · Forecast · 05 Feb 2021

This report lays out our central scenario outlook for 2021–2022, which we call Crony Capitalism. It assumes that the regime stays in power and keeps its policy framework essentially unchanged. Economic policy is pragmatic to a degree, but the government is unable to meaningfully improve expectati...

Poor retail sales and industry data reported for December

HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Feb 2021

Following seven consecutive months of moderately positive mom growth rates, retail sales fell by 0.2% sda in volume terms in December. Needless to say, the last month of any year is of special importance in this respect, given that retail sales are typically 20-25% higher during the Christmas sho...

Should we worry about inflation? (2)

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Feb 2021

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) today announced that January inflation shot up to 4.2% from 3.5% in December, traced largely to food inflation which rose 6.6%. In the space of one month, average prices went up 1.3%, the highest since June 2008 with food prices contributing close to 3/4s...

The balancing act of saving lives, livelihoods and economic revival

SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 04 Feb 2021

As the global economy starts to recover from the catastrophic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, countries are faced with the challenge of managing the second wave of infections and securing vaccines for the virus. The latter is already exposing the fact that the road to recovery will be uneven and...

Russia and Turkey establish a joint base in Azerbaijan

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Feb 2021

On January 30 the Russian and Turkish armies opened their shared base in the Aghdam Region. There are 60 soldiers from each army, and there is no joint commander. This is the first time in over 100 years that Turkey has stationed troops in Azerbaijan. The purpose of the base is to launch monitor ...

Surprise picks for Central Bank board

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 03 Feb 2021

President Duque announced today that Ana Fernanda Maiguashca and Gerardo Hernández, members of the Board of Banco de la República since 2013 and 2017, respectively, will be replaced by Bibiana Taboada and Mauricio Villamizar.The year started with wide speculation as to who was going to be replace...

Inflation y-o-y to stabilize, disinflation expected from March

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Feb 2021

Rosstat reported that during the last week of January, the w-o-w inflation was at zero, and as of February 1, inflation YTD reached 0.7%. It is not yet the official number for January as monthly inflation numbers assume a broader consumption basket than preliminary estimates of weekly inflation. ...

Gazprom exported more to the EU than ever in January 2021

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Feb 2021

On February 1 VTB Capital estimated that Gazprom's exports to the EU hit a record in January 2021. Gazprom sent 19.4 billion cubic meters to the EU that month. That was worth USD 4.5 billion. The gas sent was a 45% increase on December 2020Gazprom is eager to complete Nord Stream 2. France is lob...

Call for new Constitution: DoA

TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Feb 2021 · 1 response

Before I comment on President Erdogan’s call for a brand-new constitution, I’d like to update our audience about more immediate and possibly market-relevant events. Currently there is a stalemate between the government and Bosporus University students, who are protesting the appointment of a pres...