GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Consumer prices rose by 1.7% in January, m/m, somewhat higher than the consensus forecast of 1.5%, with the 12-month CPI inflation increasing further to 15%, from 14.6% a month earlier. Twelve-month domestic-PPI inflation continued to rise as well, although at a more subdued rate than the past se...

HNA and debt in China

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Feb 2021

One of China’s largest conglomerates, HNA, has been under a cloud for several years, and has officially been put in bankruptcy reorganization under the Chinese courts. Several senior former executives have been accused of corruption for stealing as much as US$10 billion from HNA company units. Th...

High Uncertainty Before the Elections

ECUADOR · In Brief · 02 Feb 2021

Elections for the first round of the Ecuadorian presidential elections will take place next Sunday, February 7th. Information from polls were available until January 28th, and the uncertainty remains due to diverse results from different pollsters. There are 11 pollsters approved by the National ...

Costa Rica Macroeconomic Program for 2020-2021

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 02 Feb 2021

On January 29th, Central Bank of Costa Rica released the macroeconomic program for 2021-2022. The main indicators estimated by the Bank, as well as those defined as monetary policy targets, are displayed in Table 1, taken from the Central Bank’s publication.

Russian economy contracted 3.1% in 2020

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Feb 2021

On February 1 Moscow announced its official statistics for economic growth in 2020. The shrinkage was less severe than anticipated. The avoidance of a second lockdown was partly the reason for this. Spain by contrast experienced an 11% economic contraction. Rosstat revealed that hotels, restauran...

Russian macro: money markets becoming less distorted in 2021 as Minfin’s meddling set to subside

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Feb 2021

Ruble liquidity tightened in 4Q20 and continued to do so in January, as well, despite massive spending from the federal budget at the very end of the year. In December alone the government spent R3.9 trln (versus R2.1 trln in November). The federal budget deficit reached R1.7 trln in December, a...

Russia: We can cut ourselves off from the global internet

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Feb 2021

On February 1 Dmitry Medvedev said that the government has the ability to isolate the country from the global internet if the situation demands it. He noted that Russia could also disconnect from SWIFT. Medvedev is deputy chair of the Security Council. The law permits the government to do so. How...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Feb 2021

The evolution of the pandemic continues largely to dictate the country’s economic and political situation. The new upsurge of contagion and rising death rate, partly due to mutations of the coronavirus and partly because of the absence of a national plan to deal with the pandemic, has brought the...

Taxes hikes and ISA sale to raise pandemic funds

COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Feb 2021

Increasing the scope of the welfare state and strengthening the state presence nationally, two key tenets of the 1991 Constitution, have raised government spending over the last three decades. Given the public spending pressures generated by the pandemic, and the need to start a fiscal adjustment...

Politics: Local and global barriers to the vaccination effort

MEXICO · Report · 01 Feb 2021

The spread of Covid-19 in Mexico has proven much worse this winter than had been expected, with no break in sight. The latest evidence points out that the country is among the worst nations in managing the pandemic. Despite the gravity of the situation, the government failed to rectify its mis...

Covid lockdown is unlikely to be eased before early April

HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Feb 2021

A few days ago, the government cabinet decided to extend the existing Covid lockdown until March 1, i.e., by a full month. This was just as expected, of course. Although the second wave of Covid has retreated substantially in every respect, but it is not at all out of the way yet. Moreover, it wa...

Budget 2021-22

INDIA · In Brief · 01 Feb 2021

The problem. Most GDP growth and jobs emerge from the willingness of private persons to put equity capital and emotional energy into building private organizations. The most important problem of the Indian economy is the loss of dynamism in private investment from 2011 onwards. In recent years, w...

A more agitated political environment in Brasilia and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Feb 2021

Congress and Superior Courts resume activity. In the Senate, the election for the presidency is scheduled for Monday, February 1, at 4pm, and in the House, at 7pm. The truckers’ strike scheduled for this Monday is unlikely to receive much support. Material for the production of the CoronaVac vacc...

GDP contracts by a mere 3.1% in 2020

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Feb 2021

Rosstat reported that the Russian GDP decreased by 3.1% in 2020, which is in line with GKEM Analytica’s expectations. As was mentioned in the previous notes, ongoing regular upward revisions of monthly statistics explain a slightly better outcome relative to what GKEM Analytica expected. On top o...

Economics: Data heightens 2021 economic tasks

MEXICO · Report · 01 Feb 2021

The economic news of the past month showed some signs of an easing of the recessionary panorama as the -3.3% yoy fall in industrial activity for November was one of the least pronounced negative results of 2020 thanks largely to gains in some components of the manufacturing sector. However, the d...