GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On January 19 the Russian Central Bank (CBR) published statistics showing that foreign investment in 2020 was the lowest in 26 years. There was only USD 1.4 billion of FDI in 2020. That is partly owing to coronavirus. FDI in 2019 was USD 29 billion.However, the long-term pattern on FDI in Russia ...

Critical mass of Covid vaccinations expected by end-summer

HUNGARY · Forecast · 21 Jan 2021

Our new quarterly forecast is published in an era of unusually high uncertainty. The key unknowns are the development and success of Covid vaccinations globally, the implementation of the new rule-of-law legislation in Europe and the outcome of the 2022 parliamentary election domestically. Given ...

Recovery, but with significant risks

CHILE · Report · 21 Jan 2021 · 1 response

Economic recovery resumed in November after October’s pause, although less intensely than in August and September. Although the 0.3% 12-month variation was helped by a low comparison base due to the violent protests of Q4 2019, the seasonally adjusted non-mining IMACEC increased by 1.4% m/m. In t...

MPC: Words vs. actions, redux

TURKEY · Report · 21 Jan 2021

At today’s meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee/CBRT left the policy rate unchanged, at 17%, in line with the consensus expectation (see chart). The Bank tried to balance this inaction with more “hawkish” amendments to the MPC statement, which, along with a stronger emphasis on the difficult in...

Prime rate moves into negative territory

UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Jan 2021

The NBU Board left prime rate unchanged at 6%. The decision was delivered despite consumer inflation has already sped up to 6.3% y/y in January, according to the NBU Governor Kyrylo Shevchenko. Already in February inflation will break 7% ceiling. This means real policy rate from now will be in ne...

Data watch: Gross international reserves

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Jan 2021

Last year, gross international reserves (GIR) surged 25% to end the year at close to $110 billion. This is remarkable considering the unprecedented global scale and severity of the covid19 crisis. While short-term capital exited emerging markets as in past crises, this time around in the Philippi...

The Government of Panama taps the bond market (between US$ 2 billion and US$2.5 billion), and the IMF approves a PLL for the equivalent of US$2.7 billion

PANAMA · In Brief · 20 Jan 2021

There was good news for the Government of Panama's finances at the beginning of the year. First, the IMF Executive Directorate agreed to a two-year Precautionary Liquidity Line of Credit (PLL) of US$ 2.7 billion with the Ministry of Economy and Finance, with US$ 1,350 million available for the fi...

Bogus presidential debates

ECUADOR · Report · 20 Jan 2021

After three debates, our opinion of the political and economic future of Ecuador depending on whom is elected has not changed. And we are sure that the confusion of many was not dissipated by the debates, either. We still consider Guillermo Lasso as the best option, and Andres Arauz as the worst....

Navalny video accuses Putin of using USD 1.35 billion in bribes to build a palace

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jan 2021

On January 19 Alexei Navalny's supporters published a video showing Putin's house Paraskoveyevka. The house is by the Black Sea. The money for its construction was allegedly plundered from the treasury. Aerial footage of the palace was released. It is unclear how the footage was obtained since th...

Truck traffic, Covid-19 and the economy in China

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Jan 2021

There is continued debate about the severity of Covid-19 in China, and more generally, about the accuracy of the country’s economic data. The latest WHO visit to China starting on January 14 to assess the source and impact of Covid-19 has continued to raise questions about the transparency of the...

Russia alleges that the US cut off phone lines at NYC Consulate

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jan 2021

On January 20 Moscow made the accusation against the United States. It is possible that this is an American riposte against a cyberattack on the US that Washington says was perpetrated by Moscow. Thirty phone lines were cut for over a day.The incident is a diplomatic spat on the day that Biden as...

BAHRAIN: Fiscals look weak ahead of bond issuance

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Jan 2021

Bahrain is looking to issue around $2bn in 7-30 year bonds, its third issuance in less than a year. This is to refinance a bond maturing next week, given a paucity of FX reserves, and partly finance the large and structural deficit. The data from the bond prospectus on the 2020 fiscal outturn loo...

The Russian ruble: settling in the comfort zone

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Jan 2021

During the pandemic-hit 2020, the Russian economy demonstrated that its ability to absorb external shocks is rather strong, as its GDP contraction was moderate, while in the past decade it demonstrated that it lacks strong growth drivers as the average annual economic growth was quite unimpressiv...

Turkey and Azerbaijan agree on free trade

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jan 2021

On January 19 Ankara ratified a trade deal with Azerbaijan. Bilateral trade in 2020 was worth USD 2 billion. Turkey exported 85% of that, and Azerbaijan 15%. Turkey's main exports to Azerbaijan are building materials, technical appliances and vehicles. The deal was signed 11 months ago.

Russian icebreaker sails the Northern Sea Route for the first time in January

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jan 2021

On January 16 a ship completed a journey that was thought impossible at this time of year. Global warming has some upside for Russia. The LNG tanker Christophe de Margerie sailed from the Chukchi Sea to the Bering Strait.Moscow trumpeted the achievement. The Northern Sea Route will probably be na...