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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A quick note on Evergrande
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 Sep 2021

The Evergrande crisis appears to be accelerating. Although the dollar bonds rose Tuesday on hopes for a better recovery rate, the overall tone is very negative. The central government has hired outside advisors to assess Evergrande’s credit situation. Morgan Stanley and Fitch have downgraded thei...

​Is the governing coalition falling apart? Alberto Fernández is the new De la Rúa?
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 15 Sep 2021

In our last market Brief, we pointed out that the harsh political defeat of “Frente de Todos” (FdT), in last Sunday´s primaries represented a severe blow in the relationship between the president (AF) and the vice-president (CFK).CFK was hardly able to hide her irritation after the primaries, all...

Russian macro forecast: Growth model to evolve – investment to play a greater role
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 15 Sep 2021

In 2021 as a whole, Russia's GDP will well exceed its pre-pandemic level as, having contracted by 3.0% in 2020, its growth this year can reach 4.2-4.3%. This will require a rather unusual and strong q-o-q growth in 3Q21 and 4Q21, which in not impossible as the services sector has potential to exp...

Merger of the DEM and the PSL could be finalized this month, the Special Committee on Administrative Reform will vote on the rapporteur’s report, and Rodrigo Pacheco returned the measure that would have changed the Civil Framework of the Internet
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Sep 2021

The merger between the DEM and the PSL could have a direct impact on the 2022 elections. Some members of the PSL are waiting for Jair Bolsonaro to join a party before deciding whether they will stay or follow the President and join his party. The Administrative Reform proposal is likely to be app...

Russia encouraging electric vehicles
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Sep 2021

As of 2022 electric vehicles will be able to access toll roads for free. The story appeared on the RBC website and followed the publication of a draft plan document by the government. On August 23 the Prime Minister signed the Development Concept for the Production and Use of Electric Automobile ...

Is Bahamas approaching a "Thunderball" moment with an election occurring during a Covid wave?
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 15 Sep 2021 · 1 response

Most of the action in the James Bond movie “Thunderball” occurred in The Bahamas, where after two movies there, actor Sean Connery chose to live for the rest of his life. The term "Thunderball" refers to the mushroom cloud seen during the testing of an atomic bomb. Thunderball Grotto, shown in th...

No real surprises in the August CPI
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Sep 2021

The CPI in August rose by 0.3% m/m (in line with consensus, we were expecting 0.24%) and by 2.2% y/y, up from 1.9% last month. Core inflation rose by 0.2% and by 1.9% y/y, up from 1.7% last month.There were no real surprises in the various items. The main housing (rental) item increased slightly ...

The court-ordered payments PEC to be put to a vote in the CCJ, the Special Committee on Administrative Reform to vote on Arthur Maia’s report, and the PGR asked the STF to suspend Bolsonaro’s MP on content limitation on social media
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Sep 2021

A request to review the text may postpone the vote on the court-ordered payments PEC unitl next week. President of the House Arthur Lira hopes to send the Administrative Reform proposal to the Senate by early October. The plenary of the House will resume voting on the Electoral Reform proposal. T...

Ukrainian gas controversy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Sep 2021

On September 8 three members of Naftogaz's board of supervisors resigned. The three members are all foreigners. Naftogaz sought Western board members to give it more credibility. The resignations came as the board members kept clashing with the CEO Yuriy Vitrenko.Years of mismanagement have meant...

OFZ: In stand-by mode
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Sep 2021 · 1 response

The CBR’s hawkish message is likely to put a pause on the inflow of international investors’ funds into the OFZ market. The yields in the long end of the curve remain attractive in real terms, especially in anticipation of a potential cut of the inflation target by the regulator, but the moment t...

Delinking debt in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Sep 2021

China’s leadership is promoting the concept of delinking debt from government obligations. Two recent examples are the high profile debt workouts for property developer Evergrande and asset management company Huarong, which have raised questions about the Chinese government’s support for the corp...

GDP growth likely to reach 7% this year; CA surplus remains robust, housing supply remains depressed relative to demand
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Sep 2021

GDP growth in Q221 was revised to 16.6% (from 15.4%), as private consumption expanded by 39.2% (revised from 36.3%), investments expanded by 13.2% (from 9.7%) and exports by 19.8% (previously 18.1%). We expect GDP growth to reach 7% this year, fueled by strong hi-tech exports and strong private c...

More FX-denominated bonds and reverse FX swaps
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Sep 2021

The market saw a Monday unusually rich with government and central bank measures, to which some extra explanation might be useful.First, the ÁKK revised its annual financing plan, raising its FX-denominated bond issuance target by a large amount, to EUR4.5bn from EUR1.8bn. At the same time, they ...

Politics: What we can expect from the current Congress
MEXICO · Report · 13 Sep 2021

Now that the first ordinary session of the 65th Legislature is underway we are starting to get more of an idea of what we can expect from lawmakers in the next three years, and it spells a tougher road ahead for President López Obrador throughout the final half of his administration. His Morena p...

Fighting Inflation, Fiscal Risk and Tepid Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 13 Sep 2021

With GDP for the second quarter now known, and all signs indicating that the economy is recovering, we project growth for 2021 of 5.2%. Assuming the water crisis does not lead to electricity rationing, our projection for growth in 2022 is 1.2%, meaning expansion of only 0.7 percentage point above...

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