GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

• Russia is slowing the spread of the coronavirus, distributing vaccines as Moscow reopens. • Russia’s gold reserves have risen in value significantly as the RUB remains undervalued. • In Kyrgyzstan a new president was elected. • In Kazakhstan the ruling party won elections marred by a total l...

Russia’s economic performance has seemingly improved in 4Q20, albeit accelerated inflation suppressed real retail sales

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2021

According to Rosstat’s preliminary estimates, Russia’s retail sales contracted by 4.1% in 2020. Food retail was down by 2.6%, while non-food retail dropped by 5.2%. These numbers are generally in line with expectations. As inflation accelerated in 4Q20, retail sales decreased in this quarter more...

Russian private equity firm attracts USD 260 million to digital fund

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2021

On January 21 Kommersant reported that Elbrus Capital's investment fund for the Russian digital sector is doing very well. It is the third fund launched by the investment house which has tech as its niche. Elbrus specializes in former USSR countries. Elbrus' aim is to raise USD 600 million by the...

Yuan faces further appreciation pressure

CHINA · Report · 28 Jan 2021

Chinese GDP rose 2.3% y/y in 2020. The slower growth mainly occurred in Q1 and Q2. Growth rose to 4.9% y/y in Q3, and 6.5% y/y in Q4, reaching the normal levels. Industrial output saw a similar GDP trend, and grew 2.8% y/y from 2019. Specifically, output rose 7.1% y/y in Q4, up 1.2 pps from Q4 20...

Recovery outlook: neither bad nor good

UKRAINE · Forecast · 28 Jan 2021

Ukraine survived 2020 rather smoothly, compared to the rest of the world. Economic growth dropped by 4.5% y/y, which is a very good result for Ukraine in the storm of global crisis. Incomes continued to grow. The current account balance reached an astonishing surplus of $6.9 billion, or 4.6% of ...

Inflation Report: Hawkish rhetoric continues

TURKEY · Report · 28 Jan 2021

The CBRT has released the first Inflation Report of the year, according to which the Bank, as broadly expected, kept the end-2021 and 2022 inflation forecasts unchanged at 9.4% (midpoint of 7.3%-11.5%) and at 7% (midpoint of 4.6%-9.4%), respectively. Inflation is expected to ease to the official ...

4Q20 GDP: improving but weak

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jan 2021

As expected, the contraction in GDP declined from double digits in 2Q and 3Q to 8.3% yoy in 4Q following looser quarantine restrictions and increased supply of public transport. The 4Q level of activity was a 5.6% improvement over 3Q on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Nevertheless, the weakness of t...

Russia penalizing social media networks for not censoring protest memes

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2021

On January 27 Moscow's communications regulator (Roskomnadzor) announced fines levied on seven social media networks that did not remove pro-Navalny videos. Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, TikTok, Vkontakte, Odnoklassniki and YouTube were all found to be in breach of a law that obliges them to remo...

As w-o-w inflation remains high the government considers some administrative measures

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Jan 2021

Rosstat reported Russia’s inflation during the seven days ending January 25 remained at 0.2%, i.e., it was on average the same as w-o-w inflation in December and earlier in January. The y-o-y inflation in January will likely be close to 5.5%. A closer look at the breakdown of inflation components...

Moscow to reopen bars as coronavirus falls

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Jan 2021

On January 27 Moscow relaxed its work-from-home rule and restaurant curfew. Coronavirus cases are going down further and further. Until now only 30% of staff could work in person. Restaurants and bars had to close 11 pm and 6 am.The city will decide by February 6 whether students will be allowed ...

Consumer sector metrics in China

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Jan 2021

As China moves into 2021, two key questions for the economy are: 1) Will consumer spending increase to match the gains in other sectors? 2) Will China be able to reduce the stimulus through state spending on fixed asset investment? The official data on retail sales for December 2020 and FY2020...

Japan and Russia negotiate on Arctic and food

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jan 2021

On January 15 Tokyo suggested to Moscow that the two nations collaborate on transporting goods along the Northern Sea Route (NSR), fisheries, kelp cultivation and comestible trade. The Japanese have long wanted the return of the Kurile Islands, which the USSR conquered in 1945. The Russian Consti...

Monetary Policy and Its Limits

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Jan 2021

At its last meeting, the COPOM deleted the forward guidance – the commitment to keep the SELIC rate at 2% for an extended period – meaning that as soon as deemed necessary, the monetary authorities will proceed with monetary normalization. The current directors of the Central Bank have given stro...

Weathering the storm

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Jan 2021

In El Salvador, we continue to perceive calm political conditions, a month before legislative and municipal elections. Despite serious fiscal problems, now aggravated by the pandemic, the absence of discussion of hot topics related to fiscal adjustment amazes us. As we’ve said in previous reports...

Finance Minister Ignacio Briones resigned

CHILE · In Brief · 26 Jan 2021

As expected, Finance Minister Ignacio Briones resigned on Tuesday to launch a presidential run. Briones’ political skills and common touch made him a valued addition to the government in the aftermath of the 2019 protests. His popularity has made him a natural choice as a presidential candidate f...