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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Summertime, when the livin’ ain’t easy
TURKEY · Report · 06 Jun 2021

The YouTube broadcasts of a Mafia boss Mr. Sedat Peker are still creating tremors in Turkish politics, as each installment brings new charges and new persona into the plot. The recent broadcasts have focused on AKP members receiving kickbacks and the illicit weapons trade to fundamentalist entiti...

The new government is expected to be fiscally responsible
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Jun 2021

Highlights:Politics: The new “change” government will be sworn in by next week, barring any unforeseen developments. We think this government is a positive development for fiscal policy and stimulating growth.Economic indicators continue to point to a strong recovery Broad unemployment declined t...

Putin bans 'extremist' candidates from elections
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jun 2021

On June 6 the president signed a law which precludes those with any connection to 'extremist' bodies from seeking election to parliamment in September 2021 and for at least 3 years afterwards. The government is clearly worried about the elections. They have never gone this far before. Those with ...

Sleepless in Cali
COLOMBIA · Report · 04 Jun 2021

Destabilization via vandalism, roadblocks in major cities and paralysis of the crucial Buenaventura seaport has been effective, proving Colombia quite vulnerable to obstructions in key logistical corridors. The country may be at a critical moment, similar to that of 1903, when Panama broke away. ...

Retail sales data was relatively strong in April
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jun 2021

Retail sales fell 1% mom but rose 12.2% yoy, sda, in volume terms in April. The mom number was depressed by this year's Covid lockdown, whereas the yoy figure was greatly lifted by last year's lockdown, which resulted in an extremely big, 13.7% mom drop in April 2020.The conclusion from this data...

Economic performance improves in April
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 04 Jun 2021

Rosstat reported that Russia’s economic performance looked better in early 2021 than was earlier reported. The statistical agency revised upward previously published monthly data for services, transportation, and some other segments of the economy. Apart from agriculture (which was almost flat y-...

General Pazuello will not be punished for attending a political event, and the privatization of Eletrobras and Administrative Reform see progress
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Jun 2021

Former Minister of Health and General Eduardo Pazuello will not be punished. He was appointed Secretary of Strategic Studies of the government. Congress should vote on the CSLL rate for banks, the end to the Reiq program, the privatization of Eletrobras and Administrative Reform. Next week’s test...

​GULF WEEKLY: S&P negative on Bahrain, Aramco plans sukuk, Oman protests end, oil at a 2-year high
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Jun 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * There was positivity after the 5th round of US-Iran talks, but still no deal. Iran was also positive about its talks with Saudi. * Coronavirus cases continued rising in UAE, Kuwait and Oman but eased in Bahrain and Qatar. ...

​May inflation at 4.5%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Jun 2021

As expected, the headline inflation rate stayed at 4.5% in May, reflecting a 0.1% monthly increase in prices. Food prices fell 0.4% mom due mainly to continuing decline in vegetables, with meat prices likewise retreating marginally. The increase in non-food inflation may be traced to catering ser...

Russia to drop USD from reserve fund
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jun 2021

On June 3 the Finance Ministry said that it will no longer keep holdings in USD. It will switch to more RMB, EUR and gold. The national welfare fund has USD 41 billion in USD at the moment. The switch away from USD is to be completed in a month.The liquid part of the NWF is USD 120 billion. It wi...

Russia makes greenhouse gas law
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jun 2021

On June 3 the Duma passed a law restricing the greenhouse gas emissions of private companies. A system to govern emissions will be established. Russia is the 4th biggest emitter in the world.The government shall encourage Russian firms to invest in environmental restoration and to cease behavior ...

Don't be fooled by randomness
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2021

Consumer prices rose by 0.89% in May, lower than the consensus (and our) estimate of some 1.3%, which resulted in a drop in the 12-month rate drop --after 7 consecutive months of increase-- to 16.6% from 17.1% in April. On the other hand, producer prices (domestic-PPI inflation) rose by 3.9%, m/m...

Electoral politics may induce a default on IMF debt despite a significant improvement in the fiscal and external accounts
ARGENTINA · Report · 03 Jun 2021

Unexpectedly, the fiscal accounts came in significantly better than projected in the 2021 budget. The primary deficit during the first four months was 192 billion pesos, which represents only 12% of the primary deficit budgeted for the year. This result was the consequence of an impressive 93% in...

The European Court spoke on a rule-of-law issue, but it is not the important decision yet
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Jun 2021

Today's news is that Hungary lost on a rule-of-law issue at the European Court. But just to clarify, it was not the much awaited crucial decision, which is due on the conformity of the newly approved fiscal rule-of-law mechanism with EU law. The Court rejected a Hungarian complaint, by saying tha...

Inflation remains high, prompting the CBR to hike the key rate
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Jun 2021

Rosstat reported that w-o-w inflation in the last seven days of May was at 0.12%, and cumulative inflation in May reached 0.61% m-o-m, which is a kind of a flash estimate. It is not yet the final official figure due to be published on June 7. Even though Rosstat now publishes inflation numbers wi...

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