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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Extraordinary growth in economic activity in April 2021
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 26 May 2021

Today the Central Bank disclosed that the Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity grew 47.1% in April 2021 compared to April 2020. This expansion not only made it possible to reverse the drastic year-on-year drop of 29.8% experienced in April 2020 but also exceed the level of pre pandemic economic...

Oil exports set to fall regardless of Chinese tax
VENEZUELA · Report · 26 May 2021

China has announced a substantial levy on oil-related items that include Venezuela’s main oil export, the Merey 16 blend. Pdvsa sends just over 400,000 barrels per day of Merey 16 to China—60 percent of its total exports. If implemented as written, China’s planned tax would grind those exports to...

Administrative Reform proposal approved in the CCJ, mayors and governors should testify in the CPI next week and STJ adjudicates Eletrobras’s appeal
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 May 2021

A Special Committee to analyze the Administrative Reform proposal will be created by the President of the House. The CPI should schedule mayors and governors to testify in the Committee next week. Eletrobras’s R$ 11 billion case should be voted on in the STJ; two ministers have yet to cast their ...

Can China fund its semiconductor ambitions?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 26 May 2021

China has made investment in technology a key policy for the coming decade, with semiconductors as the centerpiece. However, there are questions about China’s ability to “decouple” from the global semiconductor chain by building its owns state giants. One major question concerns funding. The pol...

Essential CIS Politics: May 2021
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 26 May 2021

* Russia is struggling with inflation, and interest rates may rise again. * Belarus demands airliner land in Minsk, prompting heavy sanctions. * Russia and NATO countries expel several of each other’s diplomats. * Russia has tightened restrictions on foreign-owned med...

Russia fines Google
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 May 2021

On May 24 a court issued a fine to the internet giant for not taking down forbidden material. Google had been given a 24 warning to comply. As the company did not abide by the court ruling by the deadline the fine was imposed. About 5 000 links were supposed to be deleted.As a penalty Google traf...

Russia’s industrial growth gathers pace in April
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 May 2021

Rosstat reported that industrial output rose y-o-y by 7.2% in April and by 1.1% in 4M21. Mining was still down by 1.8% and 5.7% y-o-y in April and 4M21. Similar numbers for manufacturing looked more impressive – 14.2% and 4.5%. In May and June, y-o-y growth will become double-digit in the mining ...

Start of tightening course confirmed at today's Monetary Council
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 May 2021

Interest rates were not touched at the Monetary Council's monthly rate-setting meeting today, May 25. However, the statement confirmed most of what vice governor Virág said about a week ago, though expressed this time in the more indirect and enigmatic language typically used by high-level decisi...

General Eduardo Pazuello attended a political event, CPI hears Mayra Pinheiro and Tax Reform sees some progress
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 May 2021

Active members of the military are not allowed to participate in political events. Pazuello should be summoned to testify in the COVID CPI once again. The presidents of the House and the Senate meet to discuss Tax Reform, and congressional leaders meet to discuss presidential vetoes and the Feder...

Rusal divesting itself of polluting assets
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 May 2021

The aluminium company is starting a major restructure. The aim is to make the most of the green energy revolution. Rusal wants to ingratiate itself with environmentally friendly investors.On May 20 Rusal said it will break itself into two companies. One will produce green aluminium and the other ...

Politics: Campaign 2021 results forecast – Part One
MEXICO · Report · 25 May 2021

With less than two weeks to go before Mexico’s June 6 mid-term elections, Morena’s initial commanding lead nationwide appears to be slipping, according to several public opinion polls. All the surveys concur –albeit with discrepancies normal in the world of public opinion polls that often use dif...

Arctic oil spill could cost Lukoil USD 13 million
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 May 2021

On May 25 Izvestia reported that the oil spill in the Russian Arctic is going to lead to fines for Lukoil of at least USD 8 million. However, if much of the oil in the Kolva River causes serious damage the fine will be closer to USD 13 million.On May 14 the oil spill at the Oshkoye field in the K...

EU bans Belarussian airlines from EU skies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 May 2021

On May 25 the EU announced its response to Belarus forcing down an EU airliner on May 24. A Ryanair flight was forced to land in Minsk so that Belarussian dissident journalist Roman Prostevich would be arrested.No Belarussian airliners will be permitted in EU airspace. Belavia is the country's ma...

Economics: Covid’s toll on the jobs market remains even as restrictions ease
MEXICO · Report · 24 May 2021

Mexico’s labor market in the first quarter of 2021 continued to be defined and deeply affected by the Covid pandemic. While formal employment as measured by the number of workers enrolled with the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) dropped an annual 2.9% in the first quarter, it managed to ...

Pressure on the ministerial team and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 May 2021

Congressional leaders are working on a deal on federal budget adjustments and presidential vetoes. The presidents of the Lower House and Senate will discuss Tax Reform with Paulo Guedes. In the Lower House, the Constitution and Justice Committee may vote on Administrative Reform. In the Senate, R...

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