GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Panama is the worst performing economy in Latin America, except perhaps for Venezuela. The first semester drop in GDP (-18.9%) was larger than the second worst, Peru (-17.3%), and twice the regional average of -8.4%. The third quarter followed the same pattern: -23.6% reduction in activity, where...

Exports are surging

CHINA · Report · 24 Dec 2020

Growth continues to be strong. Industrial output rose 7% y/y in November, reaching its fastest growth rate since April. Investment rose 2.6% y/y, and was up 0.8 pps from October. Consumption was the worst-hit macro variable of the pandemic. But retail sales of social consumption goods recovered ...

Essential CIS Politics: December 2020

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 24 Dec 2020

• Russia has begun to vaccine the vulnerable against coronavirus despite doubts about Sputnik V. • E-commerce is surging in Russia. Ozon’s IPO is an example of this. • Peace is insecure between Armenia and Azerbaijan despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers. • Kazakhstan has begun a parli...

MPC: Good delivery, but next step still uncertain

TURKEY · Report · 24 Dec 2020

The Monetary Policy Committee hiked the policy rate (weekly-repo) by 200 bps today, some 50 bps higher than the median forecast, to 17% (see chart). Importantly, the language on inflation has also turned more hawkish, with clear emphases on the “continuation” of adverse inflation dynamics. On the...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman reforms subsidies, Dubai Q2 GDP -18%, vaccines roll out

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Dec 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * JCPOA foreign ministers and House Democrats support a speedy US return to the deal. * Qatar and Bahrain made encouraging comments related to resolving the Gulf rift. * Ho...

The president’s lack of leadership, and the VP’s authoritarian and leftist stance, feeds economic pessimism

ARGENTINA · Report · 23 Dec 2020

Key health and economic indicators published after we posted our last Quarterly forecast show some improvement. The number of COVID-19 infections fell in November, and the first two weeks of December. GDP and employment preliminary estimates by INDEC for Q3 show a stronger-than-expected recovery....

OFZ: Expecting foreign demand in 2021

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Dec 2020

Today the Finance Ministry conducted the last OFZ primary auction in 2020. Significant FX market volatility and the quickly setting holiday mood influenced the government’s decision to offer the symbolic R10.7 bln of inflation-linker, which was more than 3 times oversubscribed. As a result the ag...

Regime in control but lacking legitimacy in 2021

VENEZUELA · Report · 23 Dec 2020

Maduro will start 2021 in a relatively strong position. When the new National Assembly is inaugurated on 5 January 2021, his regime will control all branches of government. He has survived tough U.S. sanctions, weakened the opposition, and kept the military on his side. But his regime, which mobi...

Introspection at the end of 2020

COLOMBIA · Report · 23 Dec 2020

Balance of payments data show that the current account deficit continued to shrink, from a 3.6% of GDP deficit at the start of 2020, to 3% in Q2, then 2.7% in Q3. While this reduces the economy’s exposure to financing gaps, the reduction deserves a closer look. The improvement in remittances and ...

MPC Preview: The good, the bad…and the minimalist

TURKEY · Report · 23 Dec 2020

The CBRT/MPC will hold arguably the most crucial rate-setting meeting of recent times tomorrow (December 24). Various polls point to a consensus of around 150 bps hike of the policy rate (median), with estimates ranging between 75-200 bps. What do we expect? The title above sums up the three poss...

Mysterious non-residents: the hryvnia weakens signaling eased demand for local state bonds

UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Dec 2020

On Dec 22nd MinFin managed to raise UAH 18.3 billion and $138.5 million locally. That’s an apparent success even though the issuance less than a week ago on Dec 15th was twice as large. The lion's share of the issue, UAH 13.8 billion as well as $138.5 million, has less than a one-year maturity. S...

Israel goes to the polls for the fourth time in two years

ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Dec 2020

Israel goes to the polls for the fourth time in two yearsThe Israeli Parliament will disperse, and elections are expected on March 23rd. This is the fourth time in two years, a sign of political instability. Nevertheless, we do not think this is necessarily a negative development this time around...

Russia launches new Arctic ship

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Dec 2020

On December 18 a ship named North Pole made its maiden voyage from St Petersburg. The 83 meter ship is to explore the Arctic. The North Pole is to be a permanent research ship.The ship will study the geology and oceanography of the North Pole. The ship is run by the state meteorology service. The...

COSTA RICA: Edging toward an IMF deal

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 22 Dec 2020

Costa Rica is now closer to a serious and formal fiscal adjustment process. We have been skeptical in our previous reports about the willingness, the scale and the timing of the required adjustment, although always keeping hope for an agreement with the IMF in Q1 2021. At last, President Carlos A...

One problem solved, on to the next

ECUADOR · In Brief · 22 Dec 2020

As anticipated, the Board of Directors of the IMF approved the second disbursement for Ecuador for $2.0b. This disbursement will be used mainly to catch up with arrears with local governments, public servants, and private sector suppliers, as announced by Minister Mauricio Pozo.On the other hand,...