GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

We have extended our outlook for inflation, exchange rates, and dollar purchasing power to 2022. In our central scenario, inflation slows to 2,200 percent this year and 1,600 percent next year from 2,500 percent in 2020. We continue to forecast under one central and two alternative scenarios. ...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar commissions LNG expansion, Saudi activist freed, Khamenei digs in heels

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Feb 2021

A skimmable summary of key developments, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Khamenei and Biden reasserted “you first” positions, and Iran produced uranium metal. * Biden will reverse the terrorism designation of the Houthis in Yemen, although the...

President Ramaphosa’s 2021 State of the Nation Address offers a mixed scorecard

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 12 Feb 2021

President Cyril Ramaphosa opened this year’s Parliament and delivered the 2021 State of the Nation Address (SONA) under an undoubtedly reshaped global and domestic economic environment. Usually a glamorous and expensive affair, the opening of Parliament in 2021 was scaled down to 30 Members of Pa...

Rising inflation: King Canute´s new tide

ARGENTINA · Report · 12 Feb 2021

The government’s attempt to stop inflation with price controls, export regulations and wage agreements, while simultaneously financing the fiscal deficit with expanding monetary aggregates and rising BCRA debt, reminds us of the legend of King Canute and his futile order to the sea, to stop the r...

Russian family savings increase twofold in 12 months

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Feb 2021

Data released by Rosstat on February 10 showed that savings are up dramatically despite incomes going down. Russian household savings are now USD 70 billion. People have saved more because they cannot spend on travel and entertainment as much. Working from home also helped. Household consumption ...

Fitch downgraded key Panamanian banks following the Republic's recent assessment and negative valuation of the financial Operating Environment

PANAMA · In Brief · 11 Feb 2021

As the result of the February 3 downgrade of Panama's Sovereign risk by Fitch Ratings from BBB to BBB-, the agency downgraded yesterday five important Panamanian banks - including the state-owned Banco Nacional de Panama (BNP). Banco General, the largest private bank in the country, dropped two n...

Russia planning to streamline guest worker regulations

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2021

On February 10 the government said it is examining the simplification of the visa process for migrant laborers. The country has been confronted by an accute paucity of workers in farming, construction and public sanitation. In March 2020 Russia closed its borders. Tens of thousands of guest worke...

Russian limp growth means country will not reach advanced economy status

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2021

On February 11 the IMF stated that Russia's anemic economy means that the country will not achieve advanced status. Growth was a poor 1.3% even before coronavirus struck. The economy contracted by 3.1%: less than almost any other major economy. That is partly attributable to the absence of a seco...

The Russian budget posted a small deficit in January as expenditures were up y-o-y

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2021

Federal budget revenues dropped by 3.7% y-o-y in January amid 3.3% y-o-y growth of expenditures. Oil-and-gas revenues were down by 19.7%, while non-oil-and-gas revenues were up by 6.7% y-o-y. In January, the government collected 8.0% and spent 7.8% of the annual plan. The result looks good as usu...

Troubled Waters Ahead

ECUADOR · In Brief · 10 Feb 2021

When 99.67% of the compiled votes have been counted, the difference between Guillermo Lasso from CREO (19.59%) and Yaku Perez (19.70%) has shrunk around 0.2% since yesterday. There are still 3.53% of compiled votes being revised and counted (close to 400,000 individual votes pending of being veri...

Russia declines to attend European security seminar

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2021

On February 9 Moscow turned down an offer to take part in a security conference with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The OSCE comprises 57 countries. Since 1991 Russia has always taken part. The refusal is a symptom of Russian disaffection, and Moscow stated that a...

Minfin pushes OFZ yield curve up

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2021 · 1 response

Today the Finance Ministry conducted three primary OFZ auctions and raised R49.4 bln (in three placements), the best result since the beginning of the year. However, the cost that the borrower paid looks high. As a reminder, last week the Ministry cancelled the placement of fixed-rate paper due t...

“The Grand Bargaining” officially started yesterday

TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Feb 2021

We have been priming our audience for the “Day of Reckoning” between Biden Administration and Erdogan Regime. The presence of S-400s on Turkish soil, a NATO member, was unacceptable to NATO and US. Unless Ankara took a step back, Biden is likely to tighten existing CAATSA sanctions month by month...

The government is struggling with mass vaccination

HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Feb 2021

PM Orbán and his environment keeps proudly referring to the fact that in December 2020, exactly 4.5 million people were found by the Statistical Office in some sort of employment, only 14 thousand short of the level recorded one year earlier. That is a great achievement indeed, but unfortunately ...

The future looks clearer, but risks persist

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 09 Feb 2021 · 1 response

The Dominican Republic began 2021 feeling the onslaught of the second wave of COVID-19, internally evidenced by the increase in the number of infections and deaths, and externally by greater restrictions on international mobility - the most extreme expression of which is the ban on flights from C...