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Russia’s pandemic/political update: seeking points of no return
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Jan 2022

As the restrictions imposed by the Russian authorities in 2021 to counter the pandemic were moderate, selective, and short-lived, the country’s economic performance turned out to be better than expected. It now looks as though the 2021 GDP growth well exceeded 4.0%. Economic activity looked stron...

Low inflation in Israel allows the BoI to be patient
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Jan 2022

1. The BoI sees inflation under control and stresses the luxury of being patient with monetary tightening, despite strong activity and employment growth. 2. Hi-tech services exports continue to surge, supportive of shekel appreciation. 3. Private consumption growth has shifted more to...

Despite strong activity and employment growth, the BoI sees low inflation ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Jan 2022

The policy rate statement today had a slightly more hawkish tone as data released since the previous rate decision has been rather robust, with strong employment growth in November (92k new employees) and accelerating activity. and private consumption. On the other hand, the possible downside ris...

​A big surge in inflation, more to come
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2022 · 1 response

Consumer prices rose by a much higher than expected 13.6%, m/m, in December, with 12-month CPI inflation hence finishing the year at 36.1%, up from 21.3% in November. It is worth highlighting that this is the highest consumer price inflation number since September 2002, and the largest miss (of t...

Difficulties in the recovery
INDIA · Report · 03 Jan 2022

We treat the best days of January 2021 as the benchmark of what was seen in the nature of a rapid recovery after the lockdown of March and April 2020. In late December 2021, the economy was behind those values in important aspects. The pace of recovery has not been good in recent months, particul...

OMAN: 2022 budget looks promising, despite some slippage in consolidation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Jan 2022 · 1 response

Oman’s budget was released on Sunday, building on headline numbers announced a few weeks ago, along with more details of the preliminary 2021 outturn. Broadly speaking, the 2021 results and the 2022 budget show the government’s continued seriousness about fiscal consolidation, even after the unex...

New year, new wave (Omicron watch)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 Jan 2022

The new year has started on a sour note for the tens of thousands newly sickened by the coronavirus. Although limited sampling has meant that the Omicron variant has been detected in only a few of the local cases so far, it is reasonable to assume that the sudden multiplication of cases since Chr...

Belarus's Constitution to be altered in favor of Lukashenko
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jan 2022

On December 27 draft amendments to the constitution were announced. These would copper-fasten the president's control over the country and permit him to remain en poste until 2035.President Lukashenko, 67, said that the changes will be the subject of a referendum in February 2022. Lukashenko was ...

NASA still wants to work with Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jan 2022

Notwithstanding poor relations with Moscow, the US is still eager to deepen cooperation on the International Space Station, until 2030 at least. On December 31 the NASA Administrator said so. The International Space Station (ISS) is run by the US, Russia and other countries.NASA is happy to conti...

Armenia to allow imports from Turkey
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Dec 2021

On December 30 Yerevan announced that the ban on purchasing Turkish goods will not be extended. Armenia introduced a ban on Turkish products in 2020 to penalize the Turks for supporting Azerbaijan in a war against Armenia. The ban was for a year.As of January 1 2022, it will be lawful to import T...

New increase in the monetary policy rate in a context of inflationary pressure and strong economic recovery
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 30 Dec 2021

The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic announced an increase in the monetary policy rate of 100 basis points, placing said rate at 4.5% per year. It is the second time that the monetary policy rate has increased after the reductions experienced during 2020 in order to support the economic rec...

China and Russia to agree space cooperation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Dec 2021

On December 29 the two nations announced that they will sign a Cooperation Program for 2023-27. The signing will take place in early 2022 and it will include building the International Lunar Research Station by 2035.Roscosmos and Chinese state media both announced the agreement to sign. Why is it...

The last charts of 2021
TURKEY · Report · 30 Dec 2021 · 1 response

In this last econ report of 2021, we share a few pictures --and a bit of text-- on the latest (macro) state of affairs. Growth has remained stronger than envisaged throughout the year, but inflation has surged, too, likely exceeding 30% in December. We think an abrupt slowdown in economic acti...

Season’s greetings from Rosstat: as the revised numbers suggest 2020 GDP contraction was not as deep as reported earlier, the 2021 dynamics will look better as well
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Dec 2021

Rosstat just reported that the 2020 GDP was higher in nominal terms, and contraction in real terms was not as significant as reported earlier - the new figure is 2.7% instead of 3.0%. Rosstat also revised up Russia’s GDP 2019 growth to 2.2% (from 2.0% reported earlier). Even though making such re...

​GULF WEEKLY: Covid and oil rebound, Kuwait forms government, Shell signs Oman gas deal
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Dec 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Covid cases have increased 10-fold in two weeks, particularly in the UAE, but deaths remain low. * Oil has rebounded to $79, partly due to supply problems, including in Libya (where elections were postponed). * There appe...

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