GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

All sights are on the vote on the Emergency Amendment in the House. The government is working to conclude the vote this week. Once approved, the government will draft a provisional measure specifically on the stimulus aid payments. The IBGE releases data on unemployment and the IPCA for February....

GDP in 2020 and Some Indications for 2021

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Mar 2021

The deepest of all recessions tracked by the CODACE lasted two quarters and caused GDP in 2020 to contract by 4.1%. On the demand side, the performance of household consumption was fundamental for the recovery that occurred in the third and fourth quarters. The greatest contribution came from the...

The spike in inflation expectations is less justified in Israel

ISRAEL · Report · 08 Mar 2021

* Private consumption is set to accelerate as the economy has opened up significantly. * The fiscal deficit reached 12.4% of GDP; we expect a lower deficit of 8.5% by year-end. * Inflation expectations (as reflected in the bond market) have moved higher, but we think the inflation enviro...

Mediocre numbers for industry and retail sales in January

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Mar 2021

Industrial output changed by +0.2% mom, -3% yoy on sda basis in January, following a much better +1.4% yoy in Q4 2020. Similarly, retail sales changed by +0.5% mom, -0.9% yoy on sda basis in January, representing no improvement from -0.9% yoy in Q4. All figures are in volume terms, of course. In ...

The spike in inflation expectations is less justified in Israel

ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Mar 2021

Inflation expectations have increased in Israel (and globally) Yet, Israel has had a very low inflationary environment in recent years. The structural current account surplus will continue to support appreciation. In addition, Israel’s hi-tech service sector will continue to attract inflows. Assu...

On myths and illusions

TURKEY · Report · 07 Mar 2021 · 1 response

The Erdogan government has failed to suppress the raging COVID-19 epidemic or provide adequate financial aid to those who suffer from its consequences. A hasty decision to ease curfews and other social restrictions is backfiring badly, jeopardizing the all-critical summer tourism season. All p...

Cost of flights in Russia rises dramatically

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Mar 2021

On March 3 Kommersant reported the hike in air fares. Russia is open to tourists from certain countries. The average price for a flight from Russia to a domestic destination was USD 212 in March 2021. That is 40% higher than what it was just before coronavirus.Tickets to Dubai are 100% higher YoY...

Kolomoisky designated corrupt by the US

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Mar 2021

On March 5 the United States stated that Ihor Kolomoisky is guilty of significant corruption. He and his close relatives have therefore been banned from entering the United States. It is speculated that the banned list might be extended to cover his associates.The statement against Kolomoisky rel...

Covid watch

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Mar 2021

Excitement this week over the rollout of donated Chinese vaccines and arrival of more from Covax has, by the weekend, been doused by reports of rising covid19 infections, with the more transmissible variants of the coronavirus having been detected locally. Yesterday, the health department reporte...

US imposes sanctions on oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyy, big political reshuffle is on agenda

UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Mar 2021

Today, on March 5th the Secretary of state Antony J. Blinken announced “the public designation of oligarch and former Ukrainian public official Ihor Kolomoyskyy due to his involvement in significant corruption”. Sanctions were also imposed on members of Ihor Kolomoyskyy’s immediate family. Mr. Bl...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ postpones taper, Khashoggi report reverberates, Kuwait forms cabinet

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Mar 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines include: * OPEC+ surprised markets by keeping cuts unchanged for April, including Saudi’s extra 1m b/d. * Iran rejected an EU proposal for talks but there were hints of a softening later in the week after the US withdrew a cr...

Alberto Fernandez's Kirchnerist speech during the opening session of Congress

ARGENTINA · Report · 03 Mar 2021

President Alberto Fernandez (AF) gave a long yet carefully structured speech during the Congress’s opening session. He reviewed his government’s achievements, defended it from what he called “malicious criticism that responds to unspeakable interests of concentrated economic powers”, and made sev...

The dangers of deafness to suffering

COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Mar 2021 · 2 responses

Last year’s 6.8% contraction represents, not surprisingly, the worst economic downturn in Colombian history – and only the fourth year in more than a century in which the economy has posted negative results. Though most sectors, especially manufacturing and commerce, followed overall GDP, agricul...

Eonomics: February data point to future challenges

MEXICO · Report · 01 Mar 2021

Even as some branches of industrial and service activity continued to pare their losses from the lows of 2020 and the trend remains toward a reopening of activity, GDP contracted -4.3% in the fourth quarter (and -8.2% for 2020), with health the only service sector to show growth. We expect a simi...

January Trade Balance surprised on the upside

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 01 Mar 2021

Most market attention will be set today on Alberto Fernandez’s speech during the opening sessions of Congress, which is expected to happen at noon, local time. This said, in this opportunity, we would like to review January’s trade balance published Friday afternoon. Even though the December to F...