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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GDP contraction in Q420 likely to be modest
ISRAEL · Report · 01 Feb 2021

Economic indicators for Q420 have been fairly positive, with strong export growth (especially hi-tech services) and only a moderate decline in private consumption. The shekel stabilized last week as rapid vaccinations (supporting inflows) has been a positive factor offsetting likely BoI intervent...

We calculate an 18% downturn in the economy for 2020 and a rebound of 4.7% for 2021
PANAMA · Forecast · 01 Feb 2021

We calculate a decrease in real economic activity of 18% for 2020. According to our estimations, construction (public and private) and related industries, retail trade, tourism, the Colon Free Zone, international transportation, banking, and energy production accounted for most of the recession. ...

A longer-lasting trade surplus
INDONESIA · Report · 01 Feb 2021

Indonesia has enjoyed a number of commodities booms in the past few decades. These range from sugar, to rubber, to oil, with the most recent being the coal and CPO booms. These rapid periods of growth in commodities helped the trade balance and also increased the welfare of the people, which even...

A chance for negotiations in 2021
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Feb 2021

This year may bring mediated talks between Venezuela’s regime and opposition. The United States and European Union both want to push for a negotiated solution to Venezuela’s crisis that leads to competitive elections, making sure the required institutional changes are implemented. Maduro ha...

Special Report - Why did Armenia lose the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Feb 2021

Now that the dust has settled on the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict the pundits have been able to opine on the reasons for Armenia’s heavy defeat. They have also been able to draw inferences from how the two nations fought and why one emerged so patently on top. The conflict ended with a ceasefire ...

GDP contraction in Q420 likely to be modest
ISRAEL · In Brief · 31 Jan 2021

Highlights:Economic indicators fairly positive in Q420, but slow in January Hi tech service exports (10% of GDP) increased by 19% in 2020. Despite the third closure, private consumption declined modestly in Q420 with credit card purchases down 1.5% q/q and chain store sales down 2.2%. January wit...

​"Cristinomics" conditions the IMF negotiations
ARGENTINA · Report · 31 Jan 2021

The government has always been vague regarding the economic model it has in mind or how it would achieve its goal of simultaneously supporting domestic consumption while remaining a competitive exporter. In short, how can it spur domestic absorption while seeking a balance of payment inflows to f...

Q&A on politics and the economy
TURKEY · Report · 31 Jan 2021 · 1 response

Support for both President Erdogan and the AKP-MHP alliance seem to be declining in the polls, as the epidemic flares up once again, while poverty and unemployment are wreaking havoc across the nation. The base-case scenario is Turkey remaining under restrictions through the second quarter of the...

Iran buying Russian vaccine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jan 2021

On January 30 Iran announced that it will receive Sputnik V doses on February 4. Iran has already approved the vaccine. There will be further shipments later in February. Iran and Russia have had a fairly warm relationship for the last 30 years.Iran has refused to countenance vaccines made in the...

Sberbank investing USD 400 million in online retail
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Jan 2021

On January 28 Russia's biggest bank announced it aims to become the country's main online retailer, too. It has signed a memorandum of intent to increase its stake in Goods.Ru. The bank wants to buy an extra stake in Goods.Ru from M.Video-Eldorado Group for USD 52 million.Sber's stake in Goods.Ru...

​OFZ issuance: poor start of the year
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Jan 2021

The first month of the year 2021 was not fruitful for the Finance Ministry in terms of the borrowing on the local market. Since the beginning of the year, the government has managed to place OFZ worth only R61.1 bln, which is a very poor result given the annual plan of R3.7 trln. Demand from inte...

​GULF WEEKLY: Saudi bonds and new governor, Kuwaiti budget and reappointed prime minister
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Jan 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Increased vaccine supplies are on the way as Covid cases continue to rise. * The US and Iran insist the other comply first, but Rob Malley’s appointment points to a deal. ...

Central America and Caribbean Outlook 2021 - Post-pandemic progress - Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Dominican Republic and Panama
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jan 2021

Our live webinar features Francisco de Paula Gutierrez, Felix Delgado, Magdalena Lizardo and Marco Fernandez as they discuss their countries’ fiscal, macro and political prospects for the coming year. This webinar was moderated by Esteban Tamayo, Citi Research Economist for Colombia, Peru and the...

Russian private equity firm attracts USD 260 million to digital fund
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2021

On January 21 Kommersant reported that Elbrus Capital's investment fund for the Russian digital sector is doing very well. It is the third fund launched by the investment house, which has tech as its niche. Elbrus specializes in former USSR countries. Elbrus' aim is to raise USD 600 million by th...

Essential CIS Politics: January 2021
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 28 Jan 2021

• Russia is slowing the spread of the coronavirus, distributing vaccines as Moscow reopens. • Russia’s gold reserves have risen in value significantly as the RUB remains undervalued. • In Kyrgyzstan a new president was elected. • In Kazakhstan the ruling party won elections marred by a total l...

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