GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On August 14 the EU announced 'smart' sanctions on Belarus. The sanctions will target Lukashenka, some organizations and some top officials. The list has not yet been drawn up. This is to penalize the government for their large scale electoral fraud. All EU members agreed to the sanctions in prin...

Emergency aid program boosts Bolsonaro’s popularity

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Aug 2020

The new Datafolha poll, published today, shows that the R$ 600 emergency aid program, paid by the government to informal workers who were affected by the coronavirus pandemic, is boosting President Jair Bolsonaro’s popularity. According to the poll, the government’s positive ratings (great/goo...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE-Israel normalization, Aramco dividend, Oman loan, Bahrain downgrade

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Aug 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: ● The UAE normalized relations with Israel, linking this to a suspension of annexation plans. ● Oil had a flat week as the IEA and OPEC both reduced their demand expectations....

July’s CPI came in slightly above expectations

ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Aug 2020

July’s CPI reached 0.2% m/m (-0.6% y/y, following -1.1% in June), slightly above expectations of 0.1% m/m. There were no real inflation surprises in July. Petrol prices increased by 4.3%. Domestic vacation costs increased seasonally by 5.8%, while apparel prices declined by 5.9%. Housing rental (...

South Africa finally moves to recover looted public funds – at least some of it

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 14 Aug 2020

At the beginning of the month, Eskom – South Africa’s embattled state utility that provides over 90% of the country’s electricity, alongside the state’s Special Investigating Unit (SIU), started legal proceedings against those implicated in corruption that saw the utility losing billions through ...

Inefficient Stimulus

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Aug 2020

China has switched from SME to infrastructure-led stimulus. This will lead to greater pressure on both bank and private capital, along with a “crowding out” of investment in more profitable parts of the economy. This is also less efficient state-driven investment. However, it has been the capital...

GDP fell by more than expected in Q2, but our latest 2020 forecast is still standing

HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Aug 2020

According to preliminary data, GDP fell by 13.5% yoy on sda basis in Q2. The MNB expected -7%, the Finance Ministry predicted -9.9%, the analyst consensus was -10.5 and -10.7% in two different polls, and our forecast, published in July, was -12%. A week ago, Eurostat estimated Euro Area Q2 GDP gr...

Putting the worst behind us

CHILE · Report · 13 Aug 2020

Recent economic data support the idea that economic shrinkage bottomed out in May, and there are reasons to believe that the recovery will accelerate in coming months. But room for optimism remains limited. In June, the 12-month variation of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity stayed negati...

Pazuello’s statements at Congressional public hearing

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Aug 2020

Today, Eduardo Pazuello, interim Minister of Health, participated in a public hearing of the Joint Committee that monitors government spending in combating the pandemic. Pazuello’s attendance was proposed by Senator Esperidião Amin (PP-SC). Pazuello said that information on the Russian COVID-1...

Protests threaten Belarussian president's hold on power

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Aug 2020

On August 13 thousands of people mostly wearing white marched around Belarussian cities linking arms. The police are flummoxed about how to deal with these human chains. Several automotive factories have gone on strike against Lukashenka and police brutality. Hundreds of workers have held a vote ...

Russian angel investor arrested in Belarus

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Aug 2020

On August 10 a well known IT investor Kirill Golub was arrested in Belarus as part of the roundup of anti-Lukashenka activists. He is a member of Changer International Business Club and the club announced his arrest. Golub is Russian but lives in Latvia. Over 6 000 people have been arrested. The ...

Debate over the spending ceiling divides the government

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Aug 2020

The direction that the government will take after the pandemic is causing an intense internal debate. In the past few weeks, pressure has grown to increase the spending ceiling. Those advocating for this understand that resuming growth must come through an increase in public investment.

Federal budget deficit widened in July amid increased spending

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Aug 2020

The Russian federal budget deficit widened in July so that the 7m20 tally reached R1.5 trln as in 1H20 it was slightly over R1.8 trln. Expenditures in July exceeded R2.0 trln while in 1H20 average monthly expenditures stood below R1.7 trln. As is happens regularly, the Finance Ministry releases p...

Presentation - Lira Volatility Redux: Could This Be the Final Straw?

TURKEY · Report · 12 Aug 2020

Outline: How Did We Get Here? What Was Ankara Thinking? Why Now? What Has Been the Response So Far? Will It Be Enough? What’s Next? Why the “Final Straw” in the Title?

Ministry of Economy growing isolated

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Aug 2020

The resignations of the special secretaries of Privatization, Salim Mattar, and De-bureaucratization, Management and Digital Government, Paulo Uebel, had wide-ranging repercussions on the market.