GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Uncertainty is high regarding budget approval: whether to approve the 2020 and 2021 budget separately (as Netanyahu wants) or jointly in one framework (as stipulated by the coalition agreement. This disagreement, if it is not settled by August 25th (the deadline for the 2020 budget approval), wil...

President of Belarus claims election victory

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Aug 2020

On August 9 President Lukashenka announced that he had won re-election with 80%. Three other candidates stood against him. Luakshenka took the precaution banning well known opponents and arresting thousands of demonstrators. The opposition candidates said the result was fraudulent. Some have call...

Lira volatility: what’s next?

TURKEY · Report · 09 Aug 2020 · 2 responses

As we start what is likely to be another reasonably turbulent week, in a series of probably many more to come, we provide a quick update on our thoughts, as of Sunday evening, Turkish time.

Highest ever fiscal deficit measured in January-July

HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Aug 2020

The central government's cash deficit reached HUF 328bn in July, making the first seven months' cumulative deficit as high as HUF 2165bn or 8.1% of GDP. The local press was hasting to point out that this was the highest ever January-July deficit recorded in this category, and it is true. It is al...

Fiscal deficit likely to reach 10% GDP, below expectations

ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Aug 2020

Highlights of the Weekly Israeli Macro Wrap Up 10.8.20: Uncertainty is high regarding budget approval: whether to approve the 2020 and 2021 budget separately (as Netanyahu wants) or jointly in one framework (as stipulated by the coalition agreement. This disagreement, if it is not settled by Augu...

US seeks to sequester Ukrainian oligarch's property

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Aug 2020

On August 7 the Justice Department issued a civil forfeiture complaint against realty belonging to Ihor Kolomoisky. The aim is to confiscate his real estate without compensation. Kolomoisky owns property in Texas and Kentucky through a company of his. The civil complaint claims that Kolomoisky an...

Belarus loading fuel into controversial nuclear power plant

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Aug 2020

On August 7 fuel was put into the reactor at Astravets nuclear power station. The power plant was built by Rosatom and paid for by a USD 10 billion loan from Russia earlier in 2020. The first electricity is supposed to flow later in 2020. There is a second reactor which is not yet finished. The n...

Ballooning fiscal confusion and too little economic support

COLOMBIA · Report · 07 Aug 2020

For the first time since 2012, Colombia is living without a fiscal rule. Prior to the crisis, this year's national central government deficit was expected to fall from 2.5% of GDP in 2019 to 2.3% of GDP in 2020, based on 16.7% of GDP 2020 revenues and 19% of GDP of expenses. Under the new COVI...

Bolsonaro seeks to minimize the negative impact of deaths from Covid-19

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Aug 2020

With the country approaching 100,000 deaths from the coronavirus, President Jair Bolsonaro is seeking to minimize the damage of the pandemic to his image. Last Thursday, in his weekly Facebook live stream, through which he usually communicates with followers, Bolsonaro declared that he has a clea...

GULF WEEKLY: PMIs expand, Beirut port explosion, Jabri alleges Saudi assassination plan

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Aug 2020 · 1 response

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * PMIs expanded in Saudi and UAE and showed a very strong rebound in Qatar. * Oil strengthened, despite the OPEC+ taper, as Iraq recommitted to compensatory cuts. * A forme...

2020–2022 Outlook: Recovery possible under new government

VENEZUELA · Forecast · 07 Aug 2020

Avid readers of our research will find this summary to be similar to that of last quarter. This is no accident—our view has changed little over the past few months. Again this quarter, our outlook through 2022 begins with a single scenario for 2020, then branches off into two scenarios for 2021...

China’s inventory problem

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 Aug 2020

China’s infrastructure-driven stimulus may be running into problems due to industry overbuild. Much of the demand is production led, fed by loans to the state sector, which controls much of the production of key materials such as steel. The data on inventory suggests China could face demand probl...

Belarus opposition rally despite ban

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Aug 2020

On August 6 several thousand people congressed in Minsk in support of Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya who is running for president. The rally had been planned by her but then the government suddenly withdrew permission. Gathering without permission is a crime in Belarus. Tsikhanouskaya canceled the rall...

Russian business income lowest since 1990s

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Aug 2020

On August 3 data was published showing that revenue for businesses during Q2 2020 was its lowest for over 20 years. SMEs have been particularly hard hit. The Russian Statistics Agency said that 3.5% of household income derived from entrepreneurs in Q2. By entrepreneurs it meant SMEs and small ren...

Popularity and unemployment

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Aug 2020

The newest PoderData poll shows that the popularity of President Jair Bolsonaro is recovering. The poll was carried out from August 3-5 and points out that his negative ratings (bad/very bad) are on a strong downward trend, although they remain high (41%). Despite these positive aspects, the issu...