GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Highlights of Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up: Recent economic data point to steady economic activity in July: Credit card purchases increased by 4.9% in July (through 28.7). The Google Mobility Index points to some stability in the past 2 weeks. Production of electricity (adjusted), is up back to la...

Ceasefire in eastern Ukraine

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Aug 2020

On Monday 27 July a ceasefire took effect in Donbass. There have been countless ceasefires that have failed since 2014. The OSCE is observing the situation and cited 111 breaches on day one. This is not as bad in previous ceasefires.The presidents of Ukraine and Russia discussed the situation. Ru...

Rubles falls dramatically

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Aug 2020 · 1 response

On July 31 the Ruble lost value - reaching its lowest level for a few months. The USD was worth 74.13 RUB at the end of US trading hours. RUB has lost 4% of its value in 2 weeks. RUB is doing even worse against EUR. Russian rate cuts contributed to this. Investors have put their money into safer ...

Clash between the STF and social media does not reduce Bolsonaro’s supporters’ digital activism

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Aug 2020

In a statement made yesterday, Facebook said that it will appeal the decision of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) that closed the accounts of Bolsonaro’s supporters on its platform. Twitter also announced that it would be doing the same. STF Minister Moraes asked for the accounts to be suspended ...

Growth perspectives drop sharply from the previous market projections. Cortizo just announced a 9% decline for 2020 and a rebound of 4% for 2021

PANAMA · Report · 31 Jul 2020

We project the GDP level and growth for 2020 based on the two scenarios: the re-opening of private and public construction and mining in the last quarter of the year, or a continued stalling of most economic activity due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The first would translate into a 9.5% decline (in ...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar/Kuwait drop GDP data, South Yemen separatists drop self-rule, PIF drops Newcastle bid

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Jul 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * The near-term outlook for oil is weakening after a recent surge partly driven by dollar weakness * Saudi posted a -$29bn deficit in Q2 but there were signs of expenditure ...

Racing for the vaccines

INDONESIA · Report · 31 Jul 2020

Indonesia has been challenged by the continued increase in new Covid-19 infections, even though the number of people who have recovered is also increasing. In fact, for the first time, the number of people who recovered in one day has started to exceed the new cases. It is hoped that this develop...

China’s lopsided economic activity

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 31 Jul 2020

Very recent trade data from June and July shows a strong uptick in activity at Chinese ports. This is reflected in the bottoming-out of export data. But the specific data on exports by sector is not reflecting strong demand. Domestically, sales data shows China’s heavy reliance on infrastructu...

The NBU overtake completed: third member of the NBU Board removed

UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Jul 2020

I was overoptimistic assuming the new NBU Governor Kyrylo Shevchenko will take a pause before totally removing the old team from the NBU. Ukraine placed Eurobonds successfully. As a consequence, tension eased and Shevchenko promptly moved on with cleaning the Central bank from pro-reformist peopl...

South Africa gets favorable IMF loan to support BOP against Covid-19

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 31 Jul 2020

On July 27, 2020, the IMF approved South Africa’s application for emergency financial assistance related to the financing of its Covid-19 pandemic response, under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). The amount approved totals US $4,286.5 million, i.e., 100% of South Africa’s quota for the fund....

Still under GCQ

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 31 Jul 2020

President Duterte announced today another 15-day extension of general community quarantine (GCQ) for Metro Manila and other key regions in the country. The decision was unsurprising despite earlier warnings of a possible return to more stringent measures due to the rising number of covid-19 cases...

Financial thunderclouds in the south

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Jul 2020

Costa Rica will be soon be walking a tightrope, as various forces act in concert. First, the still-developing pandemic has affected nearly 16,000 people, costing more than 100 lives, and causing negative growth, high unemployment and a rise in poverty. Second, the fiscal situation is critical. Th...

The difficult debate about higher taxes

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jul 2020

According to news outlet G1, the special advisor to the Ministry of the Economy, Guilherme Afif Domingos, said that the government will include the following measures in the Tax Reform proposal: an increase in the exemption limit from the Individual Income Tax (IRPF); fewer deductions; a higher r...

Kazakh lockdown extended again

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jul 2020

On July 29 the president announced that quarantine is going to last a further two weeks. Some bureaucrats had hinted that some restrictions will be relaxed. Kazakhstan ended quarantine on May 11 but was obliged to reimpose it. Officially 86 000 people have caught the disease but only 793 have died.

No rest for the weary

TURKEY · Report · 30 Jul 2020

The politics section starts with our suspicions that Ministry of Health may be underreporting COVID-19 cases, which, of course, is only a suspicion, but if true, it has very significant and negative repercussions for the economy, and public trust more broadly. Beyond COVID-19, we have articula...