GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Kuwait’s emir has flown to the Mayo Clinic after emergency bladder surgery. * The Saudi king is recovering in Riyadh after gallbladder surgery. * MBS’s succession as King...

Oil demand in China: a short-term bounce?

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Jul 2020

China has clearly been one of the success stories in handling the coronavirus. The flattening of the curve was a reflection of the nature of the tightly controlled political system. The numbers may not be completely trustworthy but even at multiples the caseload is still much lower than in other ...

Once more on rate cuts, Mr. Varga ... and the strong forint

HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Jul 2020

On July 21, the MNB reduced its base rate to 0.6%, and the forint has strengthened a lot against the euro since then.Later in the week, finance minister Varga announced that he sees the economy a lot weaker than before, and the forint continued to strengthen.Well, yes, the forint can strengthen o...

Arctic companies facing financial hit from global warming

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jul 2020

On July 23 a leaked confidential Morgan Stanley report on Russian Arctic companies was published in Vedomosti. It said that because permafrost is melting in the Arctic companies operating there face grave difficulties. Their infrastructure is jeopardized. The melting means that soil becomes unsta...

Emerging markets and the new oil calculus - China, GCC, Mexico, Russia, Venezuela

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 23 Jul 2020

In our live webinar on the “new normal” in the oil industry, Andrew Collier, Justin Alexander, Mauricio Gonzalez, Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Ruth Krivoy discuss the recent radical changes in supply and demand in the energy markets and their impact on emerging market economies. Our webinar is modera...

Russian growth in 2020-2021: a relatively smooth trajectory, albeit uneven across sectors

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 23 Jul 2020

Last month some international organizations such as the World Bank, OECD, IMF, updated their 2020-2021 forecasts and turned less optimistic. The global recession in 2020 is now seen a bit deeper, while the rebound in 2021 looks less robust and more prolonged. Russia looks quite unimpressive amid ...

Today’s 25 bps cut brings the South African Reserve Bank’s total interest rate cuts in 2020 to 300 bps

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Jul 2020

The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee again voted to cut interest rates today by 25 basis points following their scheduled July meeting, which puts the repo rate at 3.5% and the prime rate at 7%. This follows the Bank's repo rate cut of 50 bps in May. Cumulatively, this places the Reserve ...

Essential CIS Politics: July 2020

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 23 Jul 2020

* A referendum in Russia approved over 200 constitutional amendments. Crucially, one of them allows Putin to seek two more presidential terms. * Russia has emerged almost fully from lockdown and is open to tourism but there is little sign of an economic rebound. * Kazakhstan was ...

Optimism on inflation outlook maintained

TURKEY · Report · 23 Jul 2020

At today's meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the one-week repo rate unchanged at 8.25%, in line with the overwhelming consensus in that direction. To recall, this is the second consecutive meeting that the MPC stayed on hold (see chart), a decision that seems driven by the worse-t...

The Finance Ministry lowered its GDP forecast for this year

HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Jul 2020

Speaking in a radio interview on Kossuth Rádió this morning, finance minister Varga said this morning that GDP is likely to fall by an average 5% in volume terms this year, instead of the government's previous expectation of -3%, which now seems too optimistic. This would follow the previously an...

The NBU leaves prime rate unchanged at 6%

UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Jul 2020

The NBU Board left prime rate unchanged at 6% today. The decision was made despite new Head of the NBU Kyrylo Shevchenko stated few days ago that the NBU should continue further prime rate cuts for the sake of cheaper loans for economy. At the press-release the NBU mentioned that “This [decision]...

Plan to slash spending

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jul 2020

On July 21 it was reported in RBK that the Finance Ministry aims to reduce government spending by a drastic 10% in 2021. The objective is to return the country to fiscal health after the deficit soared due to coronavirus and low oil prices. The aim is to slash USD 65 billion from the budget 2021-...

Congress finds the government’s Tax Reform proposal limited in scope

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jul 2020

The Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, submitted the government’s Tax Reform proposal to Congress yesterday. According to media reports, legislators support more ambitious measures and consider the proposal limited in scope. Despite the reactions of some congressmen, the submission of the...

Russian anti-corruption organisation shut down

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Jul 2020

On July 20 the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) dissolved itself. FBK lost a lawsuit against Yevgeny Prigozhin. Prigozhin is a confidante of Putin's and he is said to be behind the Internet Research Agency which is widely suspected of meddling in foreign elections.In 2019 FBK said that Prigozhin'...

Details of the Tax Reform proposal finally delivered to Congress

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jul 2020

The government sent the first Tax Reform proposal to Congress yesterday, July 21. This first phase includes the unification of the PIS and Cofins taxes, creating the Social Contribution on Operations with Goods and Services – CBS. The second phase includes changes to the income tax for individual...