GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

When it comes to everything from managing the pandemic and the economic crisis all the way through to the administration’s approach to fighting corruption, public opinion is turning decidedly against the president’s claims and policies. In recent months, as Covid-19 has continued to spread, Presi...

The government is working toward creating a social brand and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jul 2020

Congress may resume discussion of Tax Reform. On Thursday, July 16, congressmen may analyze presidential vetoes. President Jair Bolsonaro sanctions the new regulatory framework for the sanitation sector. The president may also sign a decree regulating the law that deals with suspension of labor c...

Economics: AMLO's wellbeing claims wearing thin

MEXICO · Report · 13 Jul 2020 · 1 response

Less than nine months into President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador’s term of office, he officially declared that at least half of all families and 95% of poor households were benefitting from at least one of his administration’s cash-transfer programs. But mounting evidence pokes gaping holes in th...

A deep recession in 2020, but a strong rebound in 2021

PERU · Forecast · 13 Jul 2020

We are keeping unchanged our forecast for a 17% y/y contraction in the real GDP growth rate in 2020 and a 6.5% y/y rebound in 2021. Compared with the market consensus and the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) forecasts, we are more downbeat in the near term but similarly upbeat on the 2021 rebo...

Additional fiscal stimulus is positive, if implemented rapidly

ISRAEL · Report · 13 Jul 2020

The MoF launched a new fiscal aid program aimed mostly at small businesses, which will increase the fiscal deficit by 0.7% of GDP. Consumer confidence declined sharply in June due to renewed restrictions. The BoI announced a corporate bond purchasing plan of 15bn ILS. We expect June’s CPI to decl...

Fidesz has just lost its parliamentary two-thirds, but only in the formal sense

HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Jul 2020

On July 10, one of Fidesz' parliamentary deputies passed away, due to an unfortunate traffic accident. As a result, Fidesz now has only 132 MPs in the unicameral National Assembly, just one short of the number required to have a two-thirds constitutional majority. There will be an interim electio...

On realism, fantasy and pain

COLOMBIA · Report · 13 Jul 2020

With the publication of the new Medium-Term Fiscal Framework, we finally have a clear picture of expectations for impacts on revenues, the deficit, debt and financing. The NCG deficit is projected to soar to 8.2% of GDP this year, from 2.5% in 2019. Fiscal consolidation is expected to start in 20...

Holland sues Russia over MH17

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Jul 2020

On July 10 the Netherlands filed a case against Russia at the European Court of Human Rights. Russia is a signatory to the European Convention on Human Rights and is subject to the jurisdiction of the court.The Dutch alleged that the Malaysia Airlines flight was shot down over Ukraine in 2013 by ...

Revising down inflation projections

VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Jul 2020

Inflation slowed to 13 percent in June, according to our estimates, down from 53 percent in May. That’s consistent with the low-inflation rate scenario laid out in our June report. Slower rates of money supply growth and bolivar depreciation and weak consumer spending helped constrain inflation. ...

Additional fiscal stimulus is positive, if implemented rapidly

ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Jul 2020 · 1 response

Highlights of the Weekly Israel Macro Wrap up:Recent data suggests that economy recovery has stalled: Credit card purchases in the first week of July actually declined by 1.6% compared to the previous week, and are down 9.5% YTD. The Google Mobility Index points to stability in leisure/retail, 17...

The season of spin doctors

TURKEY · Report · 12 Jul 2020

Upon a positive ruling by High Court of Appeals, President Erdogan quickly ordered the reconversion of Hagia Sophia to a mosque by July 24th. While Western press may view the decision as the death sentence of secularism in Turkey and sign of Erdogan’s undisputable control over Turkish politics, t...

Russian mining company disputes arbitrary fine

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jul 2020

On July 8 Nornickel said that it would challenge the government's 'request' to pay USD 2.05 billion to clean up a diesel spill in the Arctic. The company said the damage is not as extensive as the government claims. The company is willing to pay for the actual damage caused but the company said t...

Russia might resume international flights from July 15

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Jul 2020

Russia might resume international flights from July 15. On July 10 the deputy prime minister said that Russia is negotiating with other governments to recommence flights from July 15. People would only be allowed into Russia if they are coming from a country with under 40 coronavirus cases per 10...

Mourão seeks to mitigate wear on environmental policy

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jul 2020

Today, Vice President Hamilton Mourão, head of the Amazon Council, said that the deforestation warnings in the region in June occurred because measures to contain it began too “late”. According to Mourão, Operation Green Brazil ideally would have started in December, 2019. Measures to prevent...

EU offers USD 147 million package to Moldova

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jul 2020

On July 10 the EU announced that it has approved to aid to Moldova to help it service its debts. USD 11 million of this is a grant and USD 22 million is a loan. The loan is low interest and very long term. The EU took into account the impact of coronavirus on the country. There is a separate USD ...