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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Government prepares announcement of economic measures; Maia focuses on reforms
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Aug 2020

In order to build a positive agenda, the Jair Bolsonaro government is working on the final format of the basic income program – Renda Brasil, which will replace Bolsa Família – and other projects aimed at restarting economic growth. According to the newspaper O Estado de São Paulo, the Minister o...

Economics: Main issues of the Pension Reform proposal
MEXICO · Report · 24 Aug 2020

The stated purpose for the social security reform package the López Obrador administration announced on July 22 with the support of the country’s business and social sectors is to raise disability or retirement pensions. They propose doing this by increasing the contributions paid into the system...

The SA Government is making progress in tackling corruption, but the governing ANC is still stuck in the rot
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Aug 2020 · 1 response

Corruption in government has been brought back into the spotlight by the many allegations of corrupt dealings regarding the monies related to the Covid-19 fiscal rescue package. This has led to President Ramaphosa's writing a letter (published on August 23) to members of his governing African Nat...

Russian economy and finances: economy gradually improves, markets to stabilize
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Aug 2020

As several sectors of the economy saw relative improvements in July, such as the strong m-o-m rebound in retail sales that continued to raise consumption following a deep fall reported in April, and better performance in manufacturing, the Economics Ministry estimated that Russia’s GDP contracted...

Politics: Governors’ rebellion de-activated overnight
MEXICO · Report · 24 Aug 2020

The federal government’s response, or lack thereof, to this year’s pandemic and economic crisis has become a major focus of a growing number of state governors who have been trying to coordinate efforts to challenge federal policies and develop practical alternatives of their own. But factors of ...

Lessons and consequences of the senators’ vote and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Aug 2020

On Tuesday, August 25, the government will announce new social and economic measures. It may also come to a decision on the extension of the emergency aid payments. Important bills are on the voting agenda in the House, for example the Bankruptcy Law, the regulatory framework for the natural gas ...

Labor Market: Recent signs and trends
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Aug 2020

Last week, the CAGED data indicated net creation of 133 thousand jobs (seasonally adjusted), when the expectation of the market was the creation of only 18 thousand. A gap of this magnitude between the forecast and the actual figure in the formal job market is not only a consequence of uncertaint...

Rates remain stable at 0.1% , FG unchanged
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Aug 2020

Policy rates remained stable at 0.1% today with the monetary statement stressing the strong impact of the Covid crisis on the level of GDP in Q220 estimated at -11%, especially weighing on private consumption and investments. The inflationary environment remains low (-0.6% y/y) and the shekel has...

Rate stability likely today, but further accommodation possible
ISRAEL · Report · 24 Aug 2020

Highlights: Monetary policy: We do not expect a policy rate change today, but we cannot rule out some additional accommodation. This could take the form of the ECB style LTRO at a negative interest rate, under the condition that these loans are passed on to the private sector. The Bank of Isra...

Recovery slows, but continues
CHINA · Report · 24 Aug 2020

Industrial output rose 4.8% y/y in July, the same rate as in June, down 1.1 pps from Q4 2019. Investment grew 8.3% y/y, up 2.7 pps from June, and up 2.9 pps from Q4, and is still mainly driven by state investment, with a growth rate of 12.7% y/y. The best performer among fixed asset investments i...

​Natural gas discovery: I can neither deny nor confirm....
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Aug 2020

Upon hearing President Erdogan’s “good tidings” on Friday, which turned out to be a modest natural gas reservoir in Black Sea, with hints of much bigger surprises to come, I set out to write a comprehensive essay on Turkey’s natural gas market and how the discovery would alter its dynamics. Howev...

Mass protests in Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Aug 2020

On August 23 tens of thousands of people protested in Minsk demanding that the president resign and fair elections be held. The opposition claimed it was over 100 000 people. The protests were almost entirely peaceful. The police watched but did not intervene against the illegal protests. Why? It...

Rosneft seeking approval for Arctic drilling
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Aug 2020

On August 20 the CEO of Rosneft met Putin. Igor Sechin presented him with a vial of Arctic oil. The Zapadno-Irkinsky Field's oil has only 0.02% sulfur Sechin claimed. This makes it among the world's purest. This field is part of a planned major oil project with Vostok Oil. If it goes ahead it wil...

Rate stability likely today, but some form of further accommodation possible
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Aug 2020

Monetary policy: We do not expect a policy rate change today, but we cannot rule out some additional accommodation. This could take the form of the ECB style LTRO at a negative interest rate, under the condition that these loans are passed on to the private sector. The Bank of Israel is under pre...

Russian State borrowing at highest level since 2005
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Aug 2020

A report by the Audit Chamber published on August 20 showed that government borrowing is about to reach its highest level in 15 years. Government bonds of USD 56 billion need to be issued to fill the gap in the budget. The public sector borrowing requirement is so huge because of the fall in hydr...

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