GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The outlook for the Covid-19 pandemic has greatly deteriorated over the last two months. Contrary to earlier expectations that the epidemic would recede during the summer though it might return when the weather gets colder in the Northern Hemisphere, the current prospect is continuous further spr...

Economics: A powerless energy program

MEXICO · Report · 20 Jul 2020

The government has rolled out its energy sector program for the remainder of the administration that offers nothing encouraging. The haphazard way it seems to have been slapped together and its failure to address a vast array of essential issues is probably a good indication of the extent to whic...

Initial signs of growth deceleration

ISRAEL · Report · 20 Jul 2020

There are increasing indicators pointing to weakening activity due to increasing restrictions on the economy; this trend is expected to continue in the short run. June’s CPI (-0.1% m/m and -1.1% y/y) came in according to expectations; core inflation (-0.5% y/y) remains well below target. Today th...

A lot of nothing

TURKEY · Report · 19 Jul 2020 · 1 response

The politics update you will soon be gazing at on your screens is penned with an extraordinary lack of enthusiasm, even an adrenaline drain, which left the politics author lethargic to the point of falling asleep on his keyboard. The 30-year veteran nevertheless rises up the challenge of producin...

Initial signs of growth deceleration

ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Jul 2020

Highlights of Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 20.7.20: Recent data suggests that growth has taken a downturn in July: Credit card purchases declined by 5% in the first two weeks of July. The Google Mobility Index points to declining activity in shopping/leisure as well as going to work. The Poalim PM...

KUWAIT: Emir suffers health scare just as credit rating put on negative outlook

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Jul 2020

The 91-year old emir underwent undisclosed surgery on Saturday. The key question is when succession will happen and who will be the next crown prince. This all comes as difficulties in fiscal reform and determining how to finance the deficit have resulted in a series of rating actions, including ...

Fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jul 2020

Fighting between Armenia and AzerbaijanOn July 17 Russia offered to act as a mediator in peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The two Caucasian countries have been firing across the border for 3 days and this has claimed at least 18 lives.Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Trea...

Debate on taxing electronic transactions shows signs of resistance

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jul 2020

The initial debate on some items of tax reform, such as taxation on electronic transactions, defended by the economic team, already shows the first signs of resistance in the debate. Today, in an interview with “Rádio Gaúcha”, Vice President Hamilton Mourão said that he considers a new tax on ...

New head of Ukrainian National Bank

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jul 2020

On July 16 the president nominated Kyrylo Shevchenko to be head of NBU. He previously headed Ukrgasbank which is state run. The appointment has been confirmed by parliament.

The Russian economy in 1H20: Strong rebound in some sectors in June, a few others to catch up

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Jul 2020

Rosstat reported that retail trade bounced back in June by 15.8% m-o-m (not seasonally adjusted) which pulled y-o-y figure to -7.7%, i.e., well above the initially reported -19.1% and -23.2% May and April figures. The 1H20 y-o-y tally was down by 6.4% with prospects of some recovery in 2H20. The ...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ will taper, ICJ backs Qatar, Oman discusses VAT law, Sharjah bond

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Jul 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * OPEC+ is pressing ahead with its taper but Libya’s oil blockade is back on. * The ICJ ruled in Qatar’s favor over the airspace blockade but Saudi banned beIN Sports. * Th...

USA, UK and Canada allege Russia hack COVID-19 research

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jul 2020

On July 17 three major Western countries claimed that Russia had attempted to steal their studies on coronavirus vaccine. They claimed that APT29 is connected to the SVR (Russian external intelligence agency). Russia is working frenetically on a coronavirus vaccine. The allegation is that Russian...

Reform agenda sees important progress

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jul 2020 · 1 response

According to media reports, the Minister of Communications, Fabio Faria (PSD-RN), held a meeting last night, July 15, with the Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, and the President of the Lower House, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ). The meeting was held at Faria’s residence, indicating a rapprochement ...

On the way to the presidential election through Covid-19

ECUADOR · Forecast · 16 Jul 2020 · 1 response

Covid-19 hit Ecuador on March 15, when the government ordered a curfew that for most cities lasted more than 70 days. However, the Ecuadorian economy has been weak since 2019, when GDP closed with a dismal y/y change of 0.1%. In Q1 2020 it fell 2.1% q/q and 2.4% y/y – the worst declines since Q1 ...

Russian economy shrank 10% in Q2

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jul 2020

On July 15 Russian Central Bank (CBR) published a report on Q2. It states that recovery will be slow and patchy. Production and supply chains have been obstructed. April was the worst month and the economy to grow in May when lockdown started to be relaxed a little.The report noted that oil expor...