GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

We write this Market Brief at around 9 p.m. Istanbul time, at which time USD/TL was fluctuating around 7.25, very close to its all-time highs. Also, Central Bank Governor Mr. Uysal had called a meeting with executives of commercial banks to discuss the latest market developments, to which the BRS...

June industrial output is unsurprising and still ugly, but substantially improving at least

HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Aug 2020

Of the various pieces of June industry data reported by the Statistical Office this morning, the relevant ones are: +17.1% mom, -12.6% yoy, implying -25.7% yoy for the whole of Q2, all on seasonally adjusted basis. Once again, there is no easy way to translate this into a GDP growth component for...

GDP shrinks 16.5% in 2Q

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Aug 2020

The strict lockdown imposed in 2Q to curb the spread of covid-19 resulted in the steepest drop in GDP for one quarter since the time series started in the early 80s. The 16.5% GDP contraction reflects a 20% shock to domestic demand, particularly household spending and investments which fell 15.5%...

Turkey’s corona scandal could shake up Erdogan administration

TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Aug 2020

I’ve long suspected (and expressed the such in my humble essays), that Erdogan administration is tampering with COVID-19 patient data to attract tourists and increase out-of-home consumption.Now, there is proof, which is 99% watertight, which allows me to discuss the true extent of the outbreak a...

Fiscal deficit reaches 7.2% GDP LTM

ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Aug 2020

July’s fiscal deficit reached 12bn ILS compared to a deficit of 2bn in July 19. The fiscal deficit in the last 12 months reached 7.2% of GDP compared with 6.4% last month. Expenditures (excluding additional outlays for the Covid crisis) actually declined in January-July by 0.4% y/y, as the result...

The debate on the emergency aid extension

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Aug 2020

While leaving the Alvorada Palace on August 5, President Jair Bolsonaro stated, “It is not possible to continue the aid for a long time,” when referring to the extension of the R$ 600 paid by the government to informal workers. Bolsonaro noted that the aid costs the federal government R$ 50 billi...

Untouchables, The End

COLOMBIA · Report · 05 Aug 2020

On August 4, five Supreme Court (SC) Justices unanimously found enough merits to impose house arrest on former president and current senator Alvaro Uribe. Uribe and his lawyers may have been involved (allegedly) in witness tampering, in a case against him for (allegedly) supporting the creation o...

June retail sales data is a proof of gradual economic recovery

HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Aug 2020

Retail sales grew by 3.7% mom in June on seasonally adjusted basis, implying a -0.5% yoy number. The latter was much better, of course, than the -3.5% yoy figure seen in May and the -9.5% low point of the year-on-year curve back in April. This kind of recovery seems to have followed the general E...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Aug 2020

For more than two months, Brazil has been recording more than a thousand Covid-19 deaths daily, with a total so far of 93 thousand deaths and 2.7 million infected people, despite the low levels of testing. Nevertheless, the country continues without a health minister or a national plan to face th...

Costa Rica: CB Macroeconomic Program

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 04 Aug 2020

The Central Bank of Costa Rica released the mid-term revision of the macroeconomic program for 2020-2021 on July 30th. After updating the pandemic evolution, here and abroad, the Bank concludes that the provisional April assumptions on the public health and economic activity consequences don’t ho...

Cármen Lúcia wants explanation about dossier from Ministry of Justice

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Aug 2020

Today, Minister of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) Cármen Lúcia requested an explanation from the Ministry of Justice about a dossier prepared by the Secretariat of Integrated Operations (Seopi) against 579 federal and state civil servants identified as “anti-fascists”.

Russia is ending tax treaty with Cyprus

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Aug 2020

Russia intends to charge 15% tax on dividend payments on money remitted from Russia companies registered in Cyprus. Many Russian companies are registered on the Mediterranean island because of it is tax advantageous.The new tax will assist in paying for the country to recover after COVID-19. The ...

China virus check - week ending August 3, 2020

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Aug 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China showed hopeful signs. There appears to be a bottoming out in many measures, such as metro passenger traffic. We added some data on cinema attendance, for which the results are poor. Obviously, many public indoor activities will take a long time to re...

Flash: Congress denies confidence to the new Prime Minister

PERU · In Brief · 04 Aug 2020

This morning Congress approved a no confidence vote on the newly appointed Prime Minister, Mr. Pedro Cateriano. The Constitution mandates that the Prime Minister needs to seek a confidence vote from Congress. In case it is denied, the whole Cabinet need to be reshuffled. President Martin Vizcarra...

Inflation falls, but no cause for celebration

TURKEY · Report · 04 Aug 2020 · 1 response

Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 0.58% in July, compared with consensus expectation of 0.8%-0.9%, which reduced the 12-month rate to 11.8%, down from 12.6% in June. Domestic-PPI inflation came in at 1%, m/m, with the 12-month rate increasing further to 8.3%, from 6.2% a month ago, at...