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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Car sales in Russia down 9%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2021

On January 14 the Association of European Businesses (AEB) published data on car sales in Russia in 2020. Russians bought 1.6 million cars in 2020 as opposed to 1.76 million the previous year. The decline is less marked than in most countries. Owning a car is still beyond the reach of the working...

To boost 2020’s GDP, Beijing sharply increased all the things it has been trying to rein in
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Jan 2021

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Contrary to the triumphalist reading of the press, China’s 2020 GDP growth data were very problematic. While we all focus on the headline growth number, it is important to recognize that the Chinese economy in almost every important structural way has...

Russia arrests Navalny on his return
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2021

On January 17 Alexei Navalny flew back to Russia after months recovering in Germany. As the government warned him he would be, he was arrested within minutes of landing. The reason for his arrest was for parole violations. He has been in and out of jail several times already. Hundreds of well-wis...

The BoI commits to FX purchases of 30bn USD in 2021
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Jan 2021

Highlights: Inflation came in slightly below expectations • The CPI declined by -0.1% m/m (-0.7% y/y); we had expected 0.0%. • Housing rental prices surprised on the downside. • Core inflation declined to -0.4% y/y from -0.2% in November. • The PPI (exc. fuel) declined by to -1.4% y/y from...

The ANC’s January 8th Priorities in the Context of South Africa’s Economic Reality
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Jan 2021 · 1 response

The ANC issued its first January 8th Statement on its founding date (8th January 1972) and in 1979, it was decided to mark the ANC’s anniversary on every January 8th. In recent years, this day has been marked with huge country-wide celebrations. Its economic importance, however, is that it paves ...

The BoI commits to FX purchases of 30bn USD in 2021
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Jan 2021

Inflation came in slightly below expectationsThe CPI declined by -0.1% m/m (-0.7% y/y), we had expected 0.0%. Housing rental prices surprised on the downside. Core inflation declined to -0.4% y/y from -0.2% in November. The PPI (exc. fuel) declined by to -1.4% y/y from -1.3%. Low inflation is mos...

Waiting for Biden, vaccine and reform
TURKEY · Report · 17 Jan 2021

The countries in Turkey’s region are apprehensively waiting for the arrival of the Biden Era, predicted to have a renewed focus on Middle East, Russia and Iran. The first section in politics covers how prepared Turkey is and what can be expected in the upcoming Erdogan-Biden talks. A small disast...

Russia to withdraw troops from the Central African Republic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2021

On January 15 Moscow told the United Nations that the military instructors in the Central African Republic (CAR) will come home. The news was supposed to be confidential but was leaked by diplomats. Moscow has made no official announcement.The UN Sanctions Committee is observing the situation in ...

Russia withdraws from Open Skies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jan 2021

On January 16 Moscow announced that it is no longer bound by the Open Skies Treaty. The United States withdrew from it in 2020. The US and Russia have been exchanging accusations of breaching the treaty for years. Russia forbade flights over Kaliningrad.US allies in Europe wanted to maintain the ...

Natural Gas prices rising in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jan 2021

Since the start of 2021 there have been demonstrations in Ukraine against the hike in natural gas prices. The market has been liberalized. In Ukraine temperatures fall to -20 C at this time of the year.President Zelensky vowed to cut gas prices by 30%. Naftogaz said it will cut prices to USD 0.25...

Sberbank's profit USD 10 billion 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jan 2021

On January 15 Russia's largest bank published its profit for 2020. The profit was 7.7% down on 2019. The bank is state owned and has a market capitalization of USD 88 billion. Profits for Sberbank collapsed in Q2 2020, although they have since rebounded.The bank aimed to make USD 13.6 billion 202...

Russian tax service: our citizens have USD 180 billion abroad
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jan 2021

On January 14 the Federal Tax Service provided an estimate of the assets that Russian citizens hold in other countries. These assets are kept in 700,000 accounts. The figures are based on information reported by Russian citizens in tax returns and information sharing between governments. The true...

The hyperinflation menace remains near
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Jan 2021

Our central inflation forecast scenario has inflation slowing down a bit in 2021, to 2,200 percent this year from 2,500 percent last year. Black market dollars appreciate against the bolivar by 1,700 percent and sell for 20 million bolivars by year end but lose bolivar purchasing power for the fo...

​GULF WEEKLY: Oman issues bonds and appoints heir, Kuwait’s cabinet resigns, Covid rates rise
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Jan 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * The UAE has reached 14% vaccination but covid infection rates have tripled in two weeks. * The core of Neom is envisaged as a 170km futuristic zero-carbon linear city call...

Retail sales and China’s “Super Cities”
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Jan 2021

Retail sales have declined due to Covid. However, we expect a strong pick-up in sales as the impact of Covid weakens because of several factors. First, the growth in household bank deposits has remained strong; and second, the majority of national retail sales occur in a small subset of the count...

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