GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Last week, the CAGED data indicated net creation of 133 thousand jobs (seasonally adjusted), when the expectation of the market was the creation of only 18 thousand. A gap of this magnitude between the forecast and the actual figure in the formal job market is not only a consequence of uncertaint...

Rates remain stable at 0.1% , FG unchanged

ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Aug 2020

Policy rates remained stable at 0.1% today with the monetary statement stressing the strong impact of the Covid crisis on the level of GDP in Q220 estimated at -11%, especially weighing on private consumption and investments. The inflationary environment remains low (-0.6% y/y) and the shekel has...

Rate stability likely today, but further accommodation possible

ISRAEL · Report · 24 Aug 2020

Highlights: Monetary policy: We do not expect a policy rate change today, but we cannot rule out some additional accommodation. This could take the form of the ECB style LTRO at a negative interest rate, under the condition that these loans are passed on to the private sector. The Bank of Isra...

Recovery slows, but continues

CHINA · Report · 24 Aug 2020

Industrial output rose 4.8% y/y in July, the same rate as in June, down 1.1 pps from Q4 2019. Investment grew 8.3% y/y, up 2.7 pps from June, and up 2.9 pps from Q4, and is still mainly driven by state investment, with a growth rate of 12.7% y/y. The best performer among fixed asset investments i...

Natural gas discovery: I can neither deny nor confirm....

TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Aug 2020

Upon hearing President Erdogan’s “good tidings” on Friday, which turned out to be a modest natural gas reservoir in Black Sea, with hints of much bigger surprises to come, I set out to write a comprehensive essay on Turkey’s natural gas market and how the discovery would alter its dynamics. Howev...

Mass protests in Belarus

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Aug 2020

On August 23 tens of thousands of people protested in Minsk demanding that the president resign and fair elections be held. The opposition claimed it was over 100 000 people. The protests were almost entirely peaceful. The police watched but did not intervene against the illegal protests. Why? It...

Rosneft seeking approval for Arctic drilling

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Aug 2020

On August 20 the CEO of Rosneft met Putin. Igor Sechin presented him with a vial of Arctic oil. The Zapadno-Irkinsky Field's oil has only 0.02% sulfur Sechin claimed. This makes it among the world's purest. This field is part of a planned major oil project with Vostok Oil. If it goes ahead it wil...

Rate stability likely today, but some form of further accommodation possible

ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Aug 2020

Monetary policy: We do not expect a policy rate change today, but we cannot rule out some additional accommodation. This could take the form of the ECB style LTRO at a negative interest rate, under the condition that these loans are passed on to the private sector. The Bank of Israel is under pre...

Russian State borrowing at highest level since 2005

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Aug 2020

A report by the Audit Chamber published on August 20 showed that government borrowing is about to reach its highest level in 15 years. Government bonds of USD 56 billion need to be issued to fill the gap in the budget. The public sector borrowing requirement is so huge because of the fall in hydr...

Russia sets up offshores onshore

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Aug 2020

The Finance Ministry published changes to the tax code on August 19. There will be a 5% tax for Russian offshore companies which are based in Vladivostok and Kaliningrad. These cities are Special Administrative Regions (SARs). These offshores onshore were set up in 2018. This allowed Russian comp...

Russia anti-corruption campaigner poisoned

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Aug 2020

On August 20 Alexei Navalny reportedly drank poisoned tea at a Russian airport. The waiter suddenly disappeared. Navalny was rushed to a hospital following an emergency landing by the plane he was on. He has been declared well enough to fly to Germany for medical treatment, despite reports of his...

Positive news in the social area strengthens Bolsonaro’s positive image

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Aug 2020

During his time in Rio Grande do Norte (RN), President Jair Bolsonaro announced that the emergency aid will be extended until December this year. According to Bolsonaro, the value of the benefit after its extension is not yet defined. The aid that has been paid since April to informal workers ...

A few reactions to today’s announcement by President Erdogan

TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Aug 2020

As heralded by the media coverage of the past two days, President Erdogan announced today that Turkey has discovered natural gas reserves in the Black Sea region. Initial findings suggest reserves of about 320 billion cubic meters, but there is potential for further finds, Erdogan said. He also a...

A painful wait

ECUADOR · Report · 21 Aug 2020

The grand finale for the debt renegotiation was expected for August 20, but has been postponed until the end of the month in anticipation of a green light on a new IMF program. This new program might not be a short-term stand-by given that the current administration is requesting the inclusion...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait ends RFFG transfers, Saudi inflation spikes, US pushes for sanctions snapback

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Aug 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oman saw the biggest government restructuring in a decade. * Kuwait’s parliament suspended revenue transfers to the RFFG but kicked back a vote on the debt law for two wee...