GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Argentina webinar featuring Esteban Medrano - A debt restructuring during the pandemic. Esteban Medrano discusses Argentina's macro situation in the face of the pandemic, as well as scenarios for the restructuring.

Fábio Faria's appointment to the Ministry of Communications

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jun 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro announced yesterday, June 10, the re-creation of the Ministry of Communications, which is no longer part of the Ministry of Science and Technology, and appointed Federal Rep. Fábio Faria (PSD-RN) as its minister. Faria's appointment has the following consequences: ...

In April real growth was estimated at -29.8% and for Jan-Apr at -7.5%

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 11 Jun 2020

The Central Bank has just reported that in April the economic activity declined by 29.8% compared to April last year and that between January and April it fell by 7.5%. This is the sharpest decline in economic activity in recent economic history. These figures are not surprising at all. In fact, ...

Kyrgyz former PM jailed

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Jun 2020

On June 9 former Prime Minister Sapar Isakov was convicted of misusing public funds and sentenced to 18 years in jail. The money was intended for museum and horse race course. Isakov was already incarcerated for the other financial crimes and mishandling the two cases that he is now convicted of....

Foreign Policy: Victory in Libya amidst trouble in Syria

TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Jun 2020 · 1 response

Since the onset of the Covid-19 outbreak, I’ve steadily reduced my coverage of foreign policy.This wasn’t because Turkey was not doing anything new, but because what transpired “abroad” had little pertinence for economy, markets or the equilibrium in domestic politics. This state of affairs conti...

The NBU slashes prime rate by 200 bps, down to 6%

UKRAINE · In Brief · 11 Jun 2020

The NBU Board slashed prime rate by 200 basis points down to 6% today. The lowest level in Ukraine’s history. New IMF program, slowing inflation (+0.3% m/m or +1.7% y/y in May), and strengthening national currency created positive background for more aggressive easing steps. Economic situation ha...

Russian bank profits at a record low

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Jun 2020

On June 10 the chief of the Russian Central Bank said that profits in banking fell to an all time low in May 2020. Banks made USD 7 million profit in May 2020. The net profit for the whole of 2020 to date is USD 8 billion. The bulk of this was earned in Q1. The Russian banking sector was in good ...

Current account surplus widens in May and is set to remain strong in June

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Jun 2020 · 1 response

CBR reported that Russia’s current account and trade surpluses widened in 5m20 relative to 4m20 and reached $28.9bn and $43.2bn (from $23.5bn and $35.6bn as CBR estimated earlier these two surpluses for 4m20). This means that in May the trade surplus unsurprisingly widened in May to $7.6bn as the...

TSE cases and the Fake News Inquiry put pressure on Bolsonaro

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jun 2020

The trial in the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) of two cases filed by then-candidates Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) and Marina Silva (Rede), asking for the annulment of the electoral ticket of Jair Bolsonaro and Hamilton Mourão, after a hacker attack against a Facebook group entitled “Women united agai...

IMF approves USD 5 billion for Ukraine

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jun 2020

On June 10 the IMF executive board signed off on a USD 5 billion standby arrangement for Ukraine to last 18 months. Ukraine shall receive USD 2 billion immediately. The remainder shall be paid out in four installments up to December 2021. The aid is USD 200 million more than originally discussed....

Moscow lifts lockdown almost completely

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jun 2020

On June 9 Moscow largely left lockdown. People can go out at any time for any purpose. Masks and gloves are mandatory on public transport and in stores. Traffic is back to normal levels.Some are sceptical about the wisdom of ending lockdown. There were 1,195 new cases in Moscow on June 10. Some s...

IMF approves new program, $2.1 billion first installment underway

UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Jun 2020

Finally, the IMF approved an 18-month $5 billion Stand-By Arrangement for Ukraine. The first installment is very generous – $2.1 billion – reflecting the emergency from the COVID-19 pandemic. The next payments presumably will be equally distributed among four installments. We should wait for the ...

The government is working on social assistance

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jun 2020

The Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, confirmed today that the government will extend the payment of emergency aid for informal workers for another two months. However, Guedes has not yet revealed what the installment will be. In previous instances, President Jair Bolsonaro had spoken of R$ 300....

Russian macro: Oil near breakeven price - FX interventions to subside, ruble moving toward equilibrium

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Jun 2020

As oil prices continued to climb in recent weeks, and the Urals blend price exceeded $40/bbl on June 8, the Russian ruble appreciated to below 70 per USD. In early June, the Ministry of Finance announced its daily FX interventions plan, which can only strengthen the ruble in the current environme...

Good news and bad news: inflation and budget data is out for May

HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Jun 2020

The May CPI-inflation data, released this morning, was definitely good news. It was not primarily the headline rate, which fell to 2.2% yoy from 2.4% in the previous month, as the monthly average increase of prices still reached 0.5%, i.e. not particularly impressive, only allowing for a decreasi...