GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Virtually leaderless, the country is facing acceleration of number of deaths caused by the pandemic, deepening of the recession and the worst institutional crisis since redemocratization in 1985. These crises are feeding into each other, creating a dangerous vicious circle, which appears to pleas...

Clashes on Uzbek-Kyrgyz Border

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jun 2020

On May 31 civilians on the frontier of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan fought each other with stones. Several houses were set on fire. Over 30 people have been injured but so far no one has died. Some of the wounded have required surgery. The fighting centered around the Sokh Enclave. Sokh is Uzbek ter...

Positions delivered to the Centrão

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jun 2020

The Jair Bolsonaro government continues to advance in the appointment of positions for the parties of the so-called “Centrão”. Today, the appointment of Marcelo Lopes da Ponte, chief of staff of Senator Ciro Nogueira (PP-PI), to the presidency of the National Education Development Fund (FNDE), an...

Politics: Official Covid-19 data misgivings

MEXICO · Report · 01 Jun 2020

Mexico is apparently starting to reopen. However, the authorities are providing the most contradictory evidence and explanations for such a move, along with incoherent and constantly shifting guidance as to what the reactivation is supposed to consist of. Clearly a battle is raging in the adminis...

Economics: Data pointing to an economic precipice

MEXICO · Report · 01 Jun 2020

The GDP report for the first quarter confirmed fears that the recession in Mexico had started to accelerate, a shift that economic readings for the first two months of the year had already begun to anticipate, including especially significantly lagging ones corresponding to January (the coinciden...

Polarization takes to the streets

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jun 2020

President Jair Bolonaro will have to respond to a case in the Superior Electoral Court that calls for the annulment of his electoral ticket. States and municipalities should receive part of the R$ 60bn in aid from the federal government. This week, civil servants who wish to run for office in the...

Extra OPEC+ cuts will be credit positive, as is Qatar's LNG carrier order

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Jun 2020

Highlights: * OPEC+ is expected to bring forward its meeting to this Thursday. * The current -9.7m b/d cuts are likely to be extended for at least two months. * Most of the revenue gains from this action are likely to come in Q4 and 2021. * Separately, Qatar's order of 100+ LNG carriers...

Russia pandemic update: Looking for herd immunity and becoming less affected

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jun 2020

In the past two weeks, the daily number of confirmed cases has fluctuated between 8K and 10K, and its rate of growth decelerated from over 4% closer to 2%. The disease spread has seemingly stabilized in Russia. It cannot be ruled out that the new “generation” of viruses is now less aggressive tha...

GDP in the First Quarter and Perspectives

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jun 2020

In Brazil, the reaction to the pandemic only started in earnest in the second half of March, but this was sufficient to provoke 1.5% contraction in GDP for the first quarter. Although a campaign is clearly underway to relax the social distancing, the contagion curve is still increasing exponentia...

China virus check – week ending June 1

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 01 Jun 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Slowing growth in coal consumption in the power industry but rising for iron ore blast furnaces. 2) Traffic congestion is flat. 3) Expressway traffic is variable, but with no trend. 4) Underground metro rail traffic is weak, apart fro...

Larger bond issuance is likely to be met with stronger BoI purchases

ISRAEL · Report · 01 Jun 2020

The economy continues to open up, despite an increase in Covid infections in some schools. Credit card purchases in the second half of May reached 96% of the January-February level. Government bond issuance increased by 24% in June to 13bn ILS, indicating concern regarding a large fiscal deficit...

Preparing for the “new normal”

INDONESIA · Report · 01 Jun 2020

Indonesia was “officially” hit by COVID-19 in early March 2020. In the period of three months after the official announcement, various efforts have been made by the government to mitigate the harsh consequences of the semi lockdown implemented to cut down on the spread of the virus. Many people ...

Russia loses monopoly on Space Station travel

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 May 2020

On May 30 SpaceX ferried people to the International Space Station (ISS). SpaceX is a US company owned by Elon Musk. Until now Russia was the only country to transport people to the ISS. SpaceX's flight is the first ever crewed flight by a private space company. Roscosmos will not like this. Rosc...

Summer brings new hopes

TURKEY · Report · 31 May 2020

Turkey’s COVID-19 daily case figures declined to three-digits on Saturday, allowing the administration to lift several restrictions on economic activity and social mobility. Most nations had to make that painful choice between public health and economic prosperity. Turkey, too, is normalizing bef...

Larger bond issuance is likely to be met with stronger BoI purchases

ISRAEL · In Brief · 31 May 2020

Highlights of the Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up: The economy continues to open up: Restaurants, pools, health clubs and hotels have opened up. Entertainment venues are scheduled for mid-June. Incoming/outgoing tourism will remain restricted until July, at least. Credit card purchases declined by 26...