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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russia announces digital currency
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Oct 2020

On October 21 the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) said that a digital ruble will be introduced. This will not be a cryptocurrency as these are outlawed in Russia.CBR thinks that the fast growth of fintech will need a kind of RUB that is more amenable to electronic transders. CBR is not going to set ...

The NBU leaves prime rate at 6%, an increase is possible in 2021
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Oct 2020

Today, the NBU Board again left prime rate unchanged at 6%. Despite September consumer inflation was modest (+0.5% m/m or +2.3% y/y), the Central bank anticipates inflation speed up over the upcoming months. That was the main reason behind the decision. The NBU lowered inflation forecast down to ...

MPC: Back to old ways
TURKEY · Report · 22 Oct 2020

In a surprise move, the Monetary Policy Committee raised the Late Liquidity Window (LLW) rate by 150 bps to 14.75% from 13.25%, but left the O/N as well as the policy rate (one-week repo rate) unchanged at 11.75% and 10.25%, respectively (all simple; see chart). Parenthetically, the Bank put the ...

The First Deputy Head of the NBU Kateryna Rozhkova has been stripped of her key authorities
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Oct 2020

NBU Governor Kyrylo Shevchenko took away from the First Deputy Head of the NBU Kateryna Rozhkova her traditional authority over banking supervision, according to the NBU press-release today. Rozhkova from now will be dealing only with supervision of non-banking institutions. Recall last Friday, o...

Sberbank launching geoanalytics service
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Oct 2020

The bank cum tech firm wants to make money out of its account holders' data. It will analyze data about transactions and the locations these happened at. They are using 2GIS' service. Sberbank bought 2GIS earlier in 2020.Sber will sell this info to companies so the companies know where to set up ...

Kazakh elections announced for January 10
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Oct 2020

On October 21 the president announced parliamentary elections for 2021. The main party in the Majilis is Nur Otan (Light of the Fatherland). The Communist Party and Ak Zhol (White Path) are also in the Majilis. International observers said that all elections in Kazakhstan have been uncompetitive....

Covid-19 weekly update – week ending October 19, 2020 – further signs of mild weakening among consumers
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Oct 2020

The trends continue of mild growth in the state sector and growing weakness in the consumer sector. Generally weakening growth in key consumer metrics, including auto sales, congestion, and mixed film attendance, suggest that the demand side is still a problem for China. Much of the recovery is ...

A brighter economic outlook amid high political risk
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Oct 2020

This year we have assumed the inevitable. GDP will fall between 10% -11% by the end of the year, as it has already fallen 9.97% q/q and 12.4% y/y in Q2 2020. Household consumption fell 11.9% y/y and government consumption was also down, by 10.5% y/y, in Q2. Exports, which until Q1 contributed pos...

US indicts 6 Russian intelligence officers for cybercrime
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Oct 2020

On October 19 the US formally charged 6 GRU officers with cyberattacks on the Ukrainian power grid, the Winter Olympics and the French elections. The officers are said to have carried out a NotPetya malware attack that impacted computers all over the world resulting in losses of over USD 1 billio...

Everything still depends on Covid prospects
HUNGARY · Forecast · 19 Oct 2020

Forecasts on COVID-19 have proven to be largely wrong everywhere around the globe so far, and ours have been no exception. Unfortunately, analysts must have a view on the ongoing pandemic all the time, as everything else will greatly depend on the prospects for the epidemic. So, we are also start...

​OMAN: Bonds are finally coming to market
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Oct 2020

* Oman is coming to market to raise up to $4bn in 3/7/12 year tranches. * The revised budget expects a full-year deficit of -$10.9bn (-16.3% of GDP). * The fiscal deficit disclosed for Jan-Aug of -$4.3bn seems to be an undercount. * Government debt is at least $48bn (72% of GDP), and GRE d...

Emergency aid, Bolsonaro, the municipal elections and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Oct 2020

The highlight of the week will be the confirmation hearings in the Senate for government appointees to regulatory agencies, the TCU and CVM. Senators will also analyze the president’s first appointment to the Federal Supreme Court (STF), Kassio Marques, while the STF will decide on the removal of...

Shortening of the Debt Maturity and Risk of Financial Repression
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Oct 2020

The scare provoked by the information that the debt/GDP ratio will reach 100% at the end of 2020 and continue to grow thereafter is one thing. The foreboding generated by its consequences, which are severe, is another thing, much different. The higher risk is being reflected in asset prices: both...

Shallower recession in 2020, and stronger rebound in 2021
PERU · Forecast · 19 Oct 2020

We tweaked our forecasts last week, on the back of the most recent reports. We now expect a shallower recession in 2020, with real GDP contracting by 13.7% y/y, less than our July forecast of -17% y/y. We also forecast a stronger rebound in 2021, reaching 11.1% y/y (from 6.5% y/y previously). The...

South Africa’s economic reconstruction and recovery plan offers little new
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 Oct 2020

The third and last phase of South Africa’s response to Covid-19, the economic reconstruction and recovery plan, was delivered by President Ramaphosa on October 15. The first two phases outlined at the beginning of the pandemic response were themed "preserve" and "recover". The former comprised he...

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