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August inflation unsurprisingly rose a bit further, explaining yesterday's MNB move
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Sep 2020

CPI-inflation was reported at 0% mom, 3.9% yoy, the latter slightly up from 3.8% in July and in line with analyst expectation. Core inflation also went up moderately, to 4.7% yoy from the previous 4.5% by the KSH's basic measure, to 4.2% yoy from 4.1% by the MNB's tax-adjusted indicator, and to 4...

Agreement to overturn veto on exemption from payroll tax
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2020

Today, the leader of the government in Congress, Senator Eduardo Gomes (MDB-TO), told the newspaper Valor Econômico that an agreement is underway to overturn, next week, President Jair Bolsonaro’s veto of the extension on the exemption from payroll tax in 17 sectors. The exemption will be exte...

No surprise as South Africa’s economy contracts by 51% in Q2 2020
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Sep 2020

The 2Q GDP results had been expected to be the worst in decades because of the effect the Covid-19 pandemic has had on the country and the economy. The second quarter was the period during which strict lockdowns, some of the strictest globally, were implemented in the country, which of course gre...

Coronavirus vaccine mass trials in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Sep 2020

On September 8 Moscow announced that a coronavirus vaccine has been rolled out to the public. Up until now it has been mainly administered to soldiers. Now it is being trialed on volunteers from the general public.The vaccine - named Sputnik V- is due to enter general circulation. The Health Mini...

Priority reform proposals have been submitted and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2020

This will be a shorter week due to this week's holiday. In Congress, expectation surrounds the vote on presidential vetoes. Minister Luiz Fux takes over as president of the Federal Supreme Court, replacing Minister Dias Toffoli. In the economy, we highlight the release of the August IPCA. This...

FX intervention accelerates, additional monetary tools likely
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Sep 2020

The BoI purchased 2.56bn USD in August and 14.1bn YTD in order to slow shekel appreciation. The shekel appreciated by 1.1% in August (against the basket) and by 2.7% YTD. Appreciation is supported by a CA surplus (which apparently improved in Q3 due to the lack of flights abroad), net FDI, foreig...

Correa's Sentence for Eight Years of Jail is Ratified
ECUADOR · In Brief · 07 Sep 2020

Today at 3 pm Quito's time, the Criminal Cassation Court ratified the sentence of eight years of prison for bribery for Rafael Correa, Jorge Glass (former vice-president), three former ministers including Alexis Mera (Correa's legal advisor), other memebers of the Correistas' group, and several C...

The opposition split
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Sep 2020

The December 2020 legislative elections mark the end of a political cycle. Maduro needs to achieve a measure of stability to remain in power until the 2024 presidential election and mitigate the risk of the status quo with an interim government that enjoys international support, unwilling to reco...

Politics: Squaring off in decisive Legislature
MEXICO · Report · 07 Sep 2020

The third and last year of the federal legislature elected along with President López Obrador in 2018 holds special importance for AMLO’s governing project. Given the risk that the government’s commanding majority in the Chamber of Deputies may not survive the June 6 midterms, he is looking to lo...

Economics: External accounts project uncertainty in the near future
MEXICO · Report · 07 Sep 2020

External account data clearly captured the extent of the profound economic contraction in April-May, including a precipitous fall in demand that tended to ease up during June-July, but as yet there is no evidence of a clear recovery trend. Second quarter balance of payments results showed Mexi...

Two bits of good news on retail sales and industrial output
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Sep 2020

Most recent data releases by the Statistical Office (KSH) have provided for some rare good news on the economy, even if only in relative terms.For one, retail sales rose by 1% yoy in July, following -4.3% yoy in Q2, the latter contributing to a -8.6% yoy outcome for household consumption in the s...

Fiscal deficit reaches 8.1% GDP LTM, tax revenues surge in August
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Sep 2020

Domestic demand improved in August, but renewed closure likely: • Weekly credit card purchases increased by 3.8% m/m in August, both due to summer seasonality but in addition the fact that Israelis remain home this summer is private consumption supportive. • Consumer confidence improved in Augu...

Kazakhstan bans foreign accounts for bureaucrats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Sep 2020

On September 2 Kazakhstan announced that politicians, bureaucrats, judges and relatives thereof will be forbidden from having bank accounts in other countries. This is because some public officials have been found to have salted away huge sums of money that cannot be accounted for. Media reports ...

Gas hopes, harsh realities
TURKEY · Forecast · 06 Sep 2020

Ankara is trying to turn around a weak economy and poor local sentiment through divisive politics, confrontational foreign policy and promises of great riches from gas discoveries. Will it work? We don’t see how it possibly could, which means further market volatility is highly likely, making the...

Fiscal deficit reaches 8.1% GDP LTM, tax revenues surge in August
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Sep 2020

Highlights of Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 7.9.20 Domestic demand improved in August, but renewed closure likely: Weekly credit card purchases increased by 3.8% m/m in August, both due to summer seasonality but in addition the fact that Israelis remain home this summer is private consumption suppo...

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