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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Walking a tightrope
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 02 Sep 2020

When we flagged a looming recession back in April and projected a deep 7% GDP contraction in May, the most pessimistic at the time, we had expected that after one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, the economy would slowly transition by year-end into a “new normal.” Although the govern...

Facebook accuses Russia of meddling in US election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Sep 2020

On September 1 Facebook said that Russians are trying to sway the US presidential election. The FBI has been investigating. 13 Facebook accounts and 2 pages were set up by people claiming to be journalists. The accounts were aimed at left wingers. They have been taken down by Facebook for breakin...

India withdraws participation in Russian military drills
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Sep 2020

On August 31 New Delhi announced that its troops will not take part in the KavKaz 2020 exercises in Russia. The drills are due to take place in September 2020. India says it needs its soldiers at home because of the threat from China. China has been massing troops on its frontier with India. In J...

US warns Ukraine against Chinese investment
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Sep 2020

On August 29 the US Government announced that the Secretary of State spoke to President Zelensky and tried to dissuade him from allowing China to buy a Ukrainian engine manufacturer. Mike Pompeo claims that Chinese influence in the country is undesirable. China seeks to buy Motor Sich. The US has...

Russian economic forecast better than expected
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Sep 2020

On August 31 it was reported that the government anticipates that coronavirus will inflict less harm on the economy than previously envisaged. The Ministry of Economic Development said that the GDP will be 3.9% down in 2020. Originally this fall was forecast to be 5%. Investment is estimated to f...

Gazprom profits down
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Sep 2020

On August 31 Gazprom published worrying figures. The gas giant showed that its profit is 25 times lower in Q1 and Q2 2020 than it was in Y o Y. Its profit was only USD 447 million. Its turnover is down by a third. Much of the turnover covers the cost of doing business and maintaining its infrastr...

The partial lockdown of the people and the economy in July and August reduced our projections for 2020
PANAMA · Report · 01 Sep 2020

As the opening of the economy did not occur as anticipated, the outlook for economic activity, employment, tax revenue, etc., had to be revised lower this month, even assuming that a new normal −​ if contagion numbers improve −​ might take place in mid-to-late September. Our projections for 2020 ...

China virus check – week ending August 31, 2020
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 01 Sep 2020

The news of the week is marked by one surprising change: cinema box office receipts jumped substantially above 2019 levels. This occurred despite a 50 percent limit on theater attendance. The increase was most due to the launch of several new and highly popular films, including some that had been...

Political scenario slightly clearer
ECUADOR · In Brief · 31 Aug 2020

We expected a large dispersion in the political scenario, and that is what we got with 20 political parties registering their candidates for president and vice-president. Our first feeling is that the group representing Rafael Correa - regardless of whether Correa is enabled as a candidate or not...

Meeting with allies should confirm a new rate of emergency aid of R$ 300
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Aug 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro has a meeting with leaders of the governing coalition in Congress tomorrow, September 1, to deal with the extension of emergency aid program until the end of the year. The new value of each payment is expected to be R$ 300. So far, the government has paid five installment...

Politics: The Lozoya case devolves into a media circus
MEXICO · Report · 31 Aug 2020

At the end of July, when it became clear that former Pemex CEO Emilio Lozoya was willing to collaborate with the authorities to avoid his own prosecution, we asked in these pages if this marked the beginning of a serious effort to prosecute those involved in the vast web of corruption at the stat...

Mr. Matolcsy has made the forint slightly weaker today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 31 Aug 2020

The forint has weakened by 2-3 units, i.e. less than 1%, in EURHUF terms, on MNB governor Matolcsy writing in an article (on Növekedés.hu, essentially his own personal website) the following: "The temptation is high to give up the proven recipe of "Equilibrium and growth". An abundance of financi...

An opposition splinter looming nigh
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Aug 2020

Opposition groups seem to be on the verge of splitting up over disagreements on how to bring about regime change. The G4, coalition of four large parties aligned with Guaidó, will not take part in the elections. Juan Guaidó wants to hold a referendum so that Venezuelans can voice their opposi...

Balance of Payments: the trend is deficit in 2020
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Aug 2020

At the end of 2020, Brazil will have a small surplus in the current account, partly due to the increase of the quantity exported of basic products (exports to China have been expanding), and partly due to the performance of global exports, which by all recent evidence will decline near the most o...

GUATEMALA: Heading toward recession
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Aug 2020

Five months after the first COVID-19 case in Guatemala, the situation has escalated into a full-blown health, economic and social problem. As of August 27th, the number of recognized coronavirus cases had reached 71,000, and the number of deaths had already surpassed 2,600. As in the rest of th...

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