GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

As several influential media sources, such as last week the FT, Bloomberg, The Economist, accused Russia of significantly under-reporting the country’s death toll and suggested that the actual number of the virus-related lethal cases should have been higher by around 70%, the Russian authorities ...

Brazilian Politics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 May 2020

Continued repercussions about the video of the April 22 cabinet meeting released by STF Minister Celso de Mello. Bolsonaro sanctions emergency aid for states and municipalities. The Lower House may vote a provisional measure that reduces salaries and working hours. Congress installs a working ...

The long end of the curve appears well anchored on BoI purchases

ISRAEL · Report · 25 May 2020

The economy continues to return gradually to full activity. - Credit card purchases increased by 80% from April 19th to May 18th. - Purchases in mid-May are still down 12% YTD. - Output of electricity in the first two weeks of May is down 9.9% y/y compare to -12.8% in April. April's data re...

Economics: Deep contraction after an inertia of stagnation

MEXICO · Report · 25 May 2020

It is of fundamental importance to consider the differences that separate the current crisis from that of 2009 in terms of their consequences for income levels and, specifically, the percentage of the population that will be pushed into poverty as a result of this immediate experience. Unlike...

Politics: Generalized decline and confrontation

MEXICO · Report · 25 May 2020

The government continues to apply austerity measures instead of any minimally credible plan for mitigating the economic crisis, much less preparing conditions for an eventual recovery. There is no solution in sight for mounting public finance problems, and the president’s insistence that he will ...

A Risk Not Yet on the Market’s Radar Screens

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 May 2020 · 3 responses

Because of the deep recession, some policymakers have proposed that the increase in public spending should not be restricted to the authorization obtained from the approval of the “wartime budget”. This is not the stance of Economic Minister Guedes, but this cannot be said about the influential v...

The long end of the curve appears well anchored on BoI purchases

ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 May 2020

Highlights of the weekly macro Wrap Up 26.5.20 The economy continues to return gradually to full activity Credit card purchases increased by 80% from April 19th to May 18th. Purchases in mid-May are still down 12% YTD. Output of electricity in the first two weeks of May is down 9.9% y/y compare t...

Russian RUB hit 10-week high, with demand for bonds up

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 May 2020

On May 21 RUB reached its highest level in 10 weeks. The RUB touched 70 to the USD. This is 12% higher than the doldrums of March.The feel good factor is returning. People are willing to take a few risks again. Oil prices have risen a little. EU countries are relaxing lockdown. Demand for oil is ...

Moving toward pre-pandemic levels

CHINA · Report · 25 May 2020

China began its annual “two sessions” on May 21st. Although for the first time the government did not set an annual growth target -- possibly due to so much COVID-19 uncertainty ahead -- we expect the implicit growth target is 1.8% for now, given the projected deficit and inflation numbers. Th...

Putin authorized postal and internet voting

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 May 2020

On May 23 Putin signed a law allowing voting by mail and interent. He is keen to hold a referendum to amend the constitution so that he can serve two more terms as president. The referendum was schedule for April 22 but had to be delayed sine die. The postal voting law has already passed Parliame...

Fighting COVID by polarizing voters?

TURKEY · Report · 24 May 2020 · 1 response

Turkey is achieving steady but slow progress against the COVID-19 infestation. The virus is not under control, but a ceasefire seems to have been established, so much so that most of the social restrictions and shelter-at-home periods will be ended by end-June. Medical authorities anticipate clus...

Russia sticking to fiscal discipline

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 May 2020

On May 21 Finance Minister Siluanov stated that he will not relax the fiscal rule. The rule states that oil revenues over USD 42 p b are put into the National Welfare Fund (NWF). When oil prices are below USD 42 p b the NWF makes up the shortfall in the budget. Many have urged the government to a...

Bolsonaro Administration

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 May 2020

The video does not strengthen impeachment. The release of the April 22 cabinet meeting is not the oft-discussed “silver bullet” for Pres. Jair Bolsonaro, though it could lead to inconvenient consequences. For now, the accusations leveled by former Minister of Justice Sergio Moro of crimes comm...

Excerpts from the cabinet meeting video released so far reinforce Bolsonaro’s narrative

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 May 2020

The Minister of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Celso de Mello, released practically the entire video of the ministerial cabinet meeting that took place on April 22, pointed out by former minister Sergio Moro as proof that President Jair Bolsonaro tried to intervene politically in the Federal P...

GULF WEEKLY: Abu Dhabi issues at much lower yields, lockdowns intensify for Eid

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 May 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Coronavirus growth decelerated regionally but worries about spread due to the Eid al-Fitr holiday led to an intensification of lockdo...