GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

A skimmable summary of key developments, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil rallied on further indications of a pending extension to OPEC+ cuts. * PMIs began to recover across the region in May. * Coronavirus infections fell by -5% w/w in th...

Ugly, yet unsurprising macro data out for April

HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Jun 2020

Industrial output fell 36.7% yoy, retail sales by 10% yoy, guest nights in domestic hotels by 97% yoy in April. It has been broadly expected that macro data for April - the only month spent fully under the local maximum of Covid-19 lockdown rules - would look brutally poor, and yes, exactly that ...

COVID-19 changes the political scenario

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 05 Jun 2020

COVID-19 has changed the political scenario, in the runup to the July 5th elections. One of the most prestigious polling firms has projected a technical tie in the preferences for Luis Abinader (PRM & allies) and Gonzalo Castillo (PLD & allies), with 39% for Abinader (down 4% from January) and 37...

Capital flows and Hong Kong’s future

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 05 Jun 2020

Hong Kong’s role as a financial center is likely to be diminished due to the incursion of mainland security forces into the city and the introduction of a new national security law. Any efforts to halt the demonstrations involving these forces would likely increase the uncertainty regarding the p...

US bill tries to block Russian pipeline

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jun 2020

On June 4 US Senators introduced legislation intended to prevent Russia for completing Nord Stream 2. This is an undersea gas pipeline to Germany. If functional it would double Russia's gas exports to Germany.Senator Cruz and Senator Shaheen are among the 5 sponsors of the bill. Cruz is a Republi...

Hungary webinar featuring Istvan Racz - The post-coronavirus puzzle: Which finger to bite - growth or financial equilibrium?

HUNGARY · Report · 05 Jun 2020

Hungary webinar featuring Istvan Racz - The post-coronavirus puzzle: Which finger to bite - growth or financial equilibrium? Istvan Racz discusses the impact of the coronavirus crisis on Hungary’s macro and political situation.

New PM in Belarus

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jun 2020

On June 4 the president appointed Raman Golovchenko as prime minister. Golovchenko is a 46-year-old former diplomat. He was head of the State Military Industrial Committee. Golovchenko's former role could be an indication of why he has been promoted. Lukashenka said he appointed him to ensure dis...

Divergences mark the debate on the extension of the coronavoucher

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Jun 2020

The discussion on the extension emergency aid is growing in Brasília (DF). Of the three installments released by the government in the amount of R$ 600 for informal workers, one more is yet to be paid. In the face of pressure to extend the aid, President Jair Bolsonaro said the government should ...

President of Belarus dismisses cabinet

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jun 2020

On June 3 President Alexander Lukashenka dismissed his government. A presidential election is scheduled for August 9. Lukashenka 's bold gambit might be linked to the election. The current incumbent is expected to be re-elected for the sixth time. A fair election is unimaginable. Lukashenka, 65, ...

South Africa’s debt dynamics, Covid-19 and the way forward

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Jun 2020

South Africa’s debt had already reached worrying levels long before the Covid-19 pandemic reached the country’s shores. The debt-to-GDP ratio increased from 26.5% in 2008 to 62% in 2019 - exceeding the IMF’s suggested 55% debt-to-GDP ratio. The high and rising debt levels have meant that increasi...

Russia declares state of emergency over oil spill

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jun 2020

On June 2 Putin declared a state of emergency because 20 000 tonnes of oil were leaked into a river north of the Arctic Circle. This occurred at a power plant close to Norilsk Siberia, on May 29. The president was irate because he was only informed of the incident two days later.The plant is owne...

New IMF program to be approved on June 9

UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Jun 2020

The IMF Board is expected to approve new program for Ukraine on June 9th, according to the IMF Board Schedule. Despite the IMF announced about staff-level agreement on May 21st it took two weeks to submit Ukraine’s file to the Board. Discussions over the conditionality of the new program – that w...

Poor print, but the CBRT may ignore it

TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2020

Consumer prices rose by 1.36%, m/m, in May (May 2019: 0.95%), which was notably higher than consensus, yet somewhat closer to our forecast. The 12-month CPI rate thus rose visibly to 11.4% from 10.9% in April. Domestic-PPI inflation was better behaved, which came in at 1.5%, m/m, in May (May 2019...

Putin plans referendum for July 1

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jun 2020

On June 2 Putin said that a referendum on constitutional reform will be held on July 1. This was originally scheduled for April but had to but had to be postponed owing to coronavirus. The reforms proposed would allow the president to serve a further two terms. This would allow him to remain in o...

Slight drop in the temperature of the political crisis

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jun 2020

The decision by the Federal Supreme Court (STF) Minister, Celso de Mello, to archive the request from opposition parties to seize the cell phone of the President of the Republic, Jair Bolsonaro, and his son, City Councilor Carlos Bolsonaro (Republicanos-RJ), represents an important step towards m...