GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil gained slightly as Saudi announced an extra 1m b/d cut in June and others followed. * Coronavirus growth slowed in Saudi and UAE...

GlobalSource Partners' Analyst Webinar Series featuring Igal Magendzo and Robert Funk: From protest to pandemic

CHILE · Report · 15 May 2020

Igal Magendzo and Robert Funk discuss the impact of the coronavirus crisis on Chile’s macro and political situation.

April's CPI surprises on the upside

ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 May 2020

April's CPI declined by 0.3% m/m compared to market expectations (and our own) of -0.5%. Inflation y/y declined to -0.6% from zero in March. The main surprise for us came from the housing (rental) item which declined by -0.2% m/m (we had expected -0.7%).Somewhat surprisingly, rental contract rene...

Two Russians regions to merge

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 May 2020

On May 13 it was announced that Arkhangelsk Region and Nenets Autonomous Oblast will merge into one region. Nenets has only 44,000 people. Nenets is effectively governed by Arkhangelsk, anyway, which has 1.1 million inhabitants.Nenets is rich due to oil and gas. The merger will boost Arkhangelsk'...

Managing the fallout from the covid-19 crisis

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 May 2020

After revising its GDP growth target to a more realistic -2 to -3.4%, government is now crafting its economic recovery program in consultation with private sector stakeholders. I have been asked to provide feedback on the draft Philippine Program for Recovery with Equity and Solidarity (PH-PROGRE...

Political crisis “goes one step further”

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 May 2020

The temperature of the political clash between President Jair Bolsonaro and the governors remains quite high. Although Bolsonaro has stated that he is willing to talk to the governors, and the Provisional Measure (MP) that frees public officials from responsibility for any mistakes or omissions i...

COVID in action

CHILE · Report · 14 May 2020

Due to the early social isolation measures, and helped by a bit of panic, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) contracted by 3.5% in the 12 months to March. Moreover, in March the seasonally adjusted non-mining IMACEC declined by 6.1% m/m. March retail sales, the first to capture the e...

A budget amendment bill will double the deficit

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 14 May 2020

The government is preparing to submit a bill to Congress aimed at amending the 2020 budget law. The Ministry of Finance announced that the bill will be submitted in the second half of May and that the new budget would increase the deficit target of from the equivalent of 2.2% of GDP to 4.5% of GD...

The "chicken race" continues

ARGENTINA · Report · 14 May 2020

As might have been expected, in this “chicken race” between the government and bondholders to restructure Argentina’s debt, in which both are trying to obtain the best possible deal, the first official proposal did not reach the needed majorities to reach an agreement. The fact that it was a u...

Ukraine receives IMF loan

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 May 2020

On May 13 the Ukrainian Parliament approved a banking law known as the Anti-Kolomoisky Act. The law forbids failed banks being restored to former shareholders. This specifically relates to Privat Bank which Ihor Kolomoisky used to own. This law was a precondition for receiving an IMF loan. This i...

Bolsonaro’s partial victory in the “war of narratives”

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2020

Amid rumors about the presence of allegedly “devastating content” against President Jair Bolsonaro in the video of the ministerial cabinet meeting on April 22, the three ministers, General Augusto Heleno (Institutional Security Office), General Luiz Eduardo Ramos (Government Secretariat) and Gene...

Rescuing the financial system

INDIA · Report · 13 May 2020 · 1 response

On May 12, the Prime Minister made a speech in which he talked about Rs.20 trillion that will be brought into play (in ways that are as yet unspecified). He struck an optimistic note, suggesting that the worst of the epidemic is behind us, and that we now rebuild. There was a surprising emphasis ...

Perspectives for banking legislation in the Senate

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2020

The voting agenda for the Senate tomorrow, May 14, includes a bill that limits interest rates on credit cards and overdrafts (PL 1166/2020). For next week, there are plans to include analysis of the proposal that increases the CSLL (Social Contribution on Profits) for financial institutions, insu...

“Anti-Kolomoysky” law approved, IMF’s turn to move

UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 May 2020

Parliament approved “Anti-Kolomoysky” law , which prevents return of nationalized Privatbank to its previouse owners. It was a long way to go for Ukrainian authorities. Many concerns about independence of president Zelenskiy. But finally we saw that Zelenskiy is trying to make decisions with his ...

Political tension on the horizon

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 May 2020

The testimonies given today by Ministers Augusto Heleno (Institutional Security Office), Braga Netto (Civil House) and Luiz Eduardo Ramos (Government Secretariat) may be decisive in the inquiry opened at the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to investigate the accusations made by former Minister Sergio...