GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

There is no doubt that the impact of the lockdown on the Russian economy in April was strong, and the decision to gradually lift the imposed restrictions is quite understandable – even despite the rather high numbers of infections in Russia. In this regard it is worth reiterating that despite the...

China virus check – week ending May 12

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 May 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) A strong upturn in coal use in the power industry. 2) Strong traffic congestion but expressway traffic down due to comparisons with the week-earlier holiday. 3) Underground metro rail traffic moving up relatively stea...

Russia easing lockdown despite surging cases

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 May 2020

On May 11 Putin said the lockdown would be eased for most people. The president claimed that the lockdown had allowed the health service to get more equipment. It begs the question why Russia was sending the doctors and aid to other countries when Russia has shortages. In Moscow the lockdown has ...

First hearing in the investigation

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 May 2020

Today began the first testimonies of the investigation into the alleged attempt by President Bolsonaro to politically interfere in the Federal Police (PF), following accusations from former Cabinet Minister Sergio Moro. The hearing of Mauricio Valeixo, the previous director of the PF, in Curitib...

Economics: No game plan and scant oil money

MEXICO · Report · 11 May 2020 · 1 response

The Mexican economy’s fragility in the face of the global economic crisis has highlighted several structural deficiencies, including the country’s longstanding petrolization of foreign accounts and public finance dating back to the early eighties. Current account dependence on oil was corrected a...

The temptation to spend and Paulo Guedes’s exposure

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 May 2020

President Bolsonaro may sign into law the bill that provides aid to states and municipalities. Salary increases for civil servants will be vetoed. Ministers Braga Netto (Chief of Staff), Augusto Heleno (Institutional Security) and Luiz Eduardo Ramos (Government Secretariat) will testify to Federa...

Hyperinflation will persist despite price controls

VENEZUELA · Report · 11 May 2020

Consumer prices surged in April owing to a spike in black-market dollar prices, the arrival of Covid-19, the government response to Covid-19, and gasoline shortages. Month-on-month inflation accelerated to 50 percent in April from 23 percent in March. Consumer prices have risen by 263 percent so ...

Politics: Government inaction as violence spirals

MEXICO · Report · 11 May 2020

Intentional homicides continue to reach record highs in Mexico as major drug operations, primarily the Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) and Sinaloa cartels, step up war to control major trafficking routes into the United States. The former of these organizations has opened up another front as its ...

SAUDI: Tripling the VAT is a bold move that will facilitate reforms in other states

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 May 2020 · 1 response

Saudi Arabia has announced new fiscal consolidation totalling $27bn (4% of GDP), including spending cuts, ending a key benefit for public sector employees and tripling the VAT to 15%. These will help significantly with fiscal consolidation, particularly in 2021, but at the cost of further contrac...

Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate and Fiscal and Political Risks

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 May 2020

The cut of 75 basis points at the last COPOM meeting took the SELIC rate to 3%, and the communiqué indicated that another cut of up to 75 basis points at most is in store at the next meeting. The disinflationary pressure caused by the magnitude of the current recession, which in light of the beha...

Moscow, Russia reopening factories

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 May 2020

On May 11 it was confirmed that factories in Moscow can resume work on May 12. Construction sites reopened on May 6. To reduce the risk of infection people must wear masks and gloves while commuting. Economic activity in Russia is one-third lower than it was in March before the lockdown began.

The decline of BoI bond purchases may have contributed to higher yields

ISRAEL · Report · 11 May 2020 · 1 response

The economy is gradually opening up as the number of new infections remains very low. Only one quarter of the fiscal stimulus scheme was executed through April; we expect a fiscal deficit of 9% GDP, below official forecasts. The BoI intervention in the government bond market has been minimal, and...

The decline of BoI bond purchases may have contributed to higher yields

ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 May 2020

Highlights of our Weekly Macro Review to be released: Economic indicators point to a sharp contraction of activity, but the gradual opening up of the shutdown which commenced two weeks ago is expected to support a gradual recovery. The CBS Business Tendency Survey reflects sharp contraction in al...

Dark outlook

VENEZUELA · Report · 10 May 2020

An early countrywide lockdown has doubtless helped keep Covid-19 case counts low. And the health emergency has provided Maduro the opportunity to show a capacity to govern, control, and set the agenda. As in previous crises, which helped Maduro promote regime cohesiveness and deflect blame, this ...

Turkey, the Blade Runner

TURKEY · Report · 10 May 2020

With our deepest apologies, we’ve decided to put off the publication of our quarterly/forecast report until next Sunday in order to monitor the developments of this week, see a few important data releases (e.g., March industrial production, April budget) and most importantly, sharpen our baseline...