GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On May 5 a Russian housing think tank said that house prices are due to fall by up to 30% by the end of 2021. The Institute of Urban Economics made that prediction. This a fairly reliable organization. It is an NGO advising stakeholders in urban development processes. The government provides subs...

Tense climate between Bolsonaro and the press

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 May 2020

The atmosphere between President Jair Bolsonaro and the press became more tense today. During a conversation with journalists near the Alvorada Palace, in Brasília (DF), Bolsonaro denied that he is interfering politically in the Federal Police (PF) and became irritated when asked if he had reques...

US Navy patrols near Russian Arctic

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 May 2020

On May 4 an American and a British warship sailed into the Barents Sea. This is near the Russian Arctic. The ships stayed in international waters. NATO has not patrolled here for over 30 years. The US Navy said it needs to practice operating in this environment. Russia aware of the growing import...

Russia and COVID-19: confusing words – perplexing actions

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 May 2020

Given that in the second half of April the number of new daily COVID-19 cases in Russia fluctuated around 5K people, many officials and experts hoped that this number could come down going forward, thus bringing some hope that the lockdown measures could be gradually eased in mid-May. However, in...

The government's macro forecast is much closer to reality now

HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 May 2020

The government has delivered an annual update to its convergence program, the report which is due to be handed in to the EU Commission by end-April of each year. At first glance, it seems that the macro forecast included in the document is much closer to the realities of the ongoing Covid-19 cris...

Stability is the target

CHINA · Forecast · 05 May 2020

GDP fell -6.8% y/y after the Chinese economy was hit hard by the coronavirus in Q1. Since the virus in China has been almost contained since March, economic activities have been gradually rebounding, and there have been clear signs of recovery. Industrial output was down -1.1% y/y, up 12.4 pps fr...

China virus check - week ending May 3

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 05 May 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Steady decline in coal use in the power industry. 2) Traffic congestion dipping but expressway traffic showing gains. 3) Underground metro rail traffic relatively unchanged. 4) Steady increase in most aspects of Baidu searches. 5)...

The increase in domestic issuance is expected to be absorbed without much difficulty

ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 May 2020

We expect bond issuance to average 9bn per month in 2H20In May, tradeable domestic bond issuance will reach 10.5bn ILS, double the pace of the previous months. We think this sharp increase is also due to expectations of a large fiscal deficit this year as well as huge redemptions in May of 11.7bn...

Bolsonaro appoints Federal Police Director amid political tension

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 May 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro appointed Ronaldo Alexandre de Souza as the new director-general of the Federal Police (PF). Rolando was chosen five days after the Minister of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Alexandre de Moraes, suspended the appointment of the head of the Brazilian Intelligence Agency...

Politics: The cost of concentrating presidential control

MEXICO · Report · 04 May 2020

The debate over President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s handling of Covid-19 remains a topic of intense discussion amid growing doubts as to the official version of the pandemic’s progression, the degree to which the health system is coping amid the crisis, and the legal maneuvers the government ...

Economics: No one at the wheel as the economy skids

MEXICO · Report · 04 May 2020

Economic news during April continued to confirm the accelerating weakening trend apparent since last year and also offered some very initial indications of how the Covid-19 epidemic will increasingly squeeze the economy. For starters, the March report from Antad showed the country’s retailers exp...

Order restored: Manufacturing PMI is now in line with the Eurozone and the CEE/Turkey

HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 May 2020 · 1 response

The extreme historic low of 29.1 reported for the manufacturing PMI for March was way out of line with any of the Euro Area, Poland, Czechia and the Turkey at that time. The Euro Area PMI was still at 44.5 and the other countries reported similar values (Poland 42.4, Czechia 41.3, Turkey 48.1). T...

Tensions rise in the political crisis

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 May 2020

Former Minister Sérgio Moro testified to the Federal Police on Saturday, May 2. Possible leaks could shake the political world. The bill that provides aid to states and municipalities will begin to be analyzed in the Lower House. On Monday, May 4, representatives vote on the “war budget” constitu...

Costa Rica: The Finance Minister released new fiscal deficit estimates

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 04 May 2020

The April 30 press conference of Minister of Finance Rodrigo Chaves only confirmed what we anticipated in our March and April reports about the seriousness of the fiscal consequences from COVID-19, mounted on long-term fiscal fragility and a lack of willingness to adopt the required measures on t...

New number 2 in Kazakhstan

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 May 2020

On May 4 the Kazakh Senate elected a new chairman. Maulen Ashimbaev was elected. He was previously head of the presidential administration. The Chairman of the Senate becomes president if the sitting president dies, resigns or is removed from office. Ashimbaev was elected the same day that he was...