GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The Bank of Israel estimates that economic activity at present is 31% below the pre-Covid-19 level. The number of employed has contracted by 40%. This estimate of low level of activity was following a partial opening of the closure. The Bank of Israel is forecasting inflation of -0.5% in the next...

The wolf took off the sheep’s skin

VENEZUELA · In Brief · 26 Apr 2020

Easing the food industry’s operations and its distribution channels would be the way to go in order to mitigate the impact that Covid-19 contention measures and gasoline shortages have on local supplies. Instead, the government is reinstating price controls and de facto expropriating inventories ...

Russian mercenaries accused of chemical attack in Libya

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Apr 2020

On April 24 Libya accused Wagner Russian mercenaries of carrying out a chemical attack. The Government of National Accord (GNA) is the UN recognized government in Libya. The GNA said that Wagner Russian mercenaries carried out the attack to assist Khalifa Haftar who leads the Libyan National Acco...

The biggest crisis of the Bolsonaro government so far

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Apr 2020

The resignation of Sergio Moro from the Ministry of Justice and Public Security – a consequence of the dismissal of the director-general of the Federal Police (PF), Maurício Valeixo – represents a major loss for the Jair Bolsonaro government. Added to the symbolism of his departure, especially gi...

Russian Central Bank cuts interest rates

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Apr 2020

On April 24 the Russian Central Bank (CBR) cut interest rates to a level not seen since 2012. This is just as we predicted. CBR said the economy might diminish by 6% in 2020. The move was almost universally anticipated. The key rate was previously 6% and is now 5.5%. This is CBR's first response ...

EU to lend EUR 1.2 billion to Ukraine

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Apr 2020

On April 22 the EU announced that it would give a EUR 1.2 billion soft loan to Ukraine to deal coronavirus. This is because Ukraine is an EU enlargement country i.e., it has the long-term goal of joining the EU. The first installment is said to be imminent. The second installment will depend on U...

The consequences of Moro’s resignation

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Apr 2020 · 1 response

The exit of the Minister of Justice and Public Security, Sergio Moro, from the Bolsonaro administration on the heels of the dismissal of the general-director of the Federal Police, Maurício Valeixo, has the potential to provoke profound changes. It is important to note that Moro’s exit, as the mo...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil plummets, Trump-Iran tensions return, Bahrain cuts spending

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Apr 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * The latest crash in oil prices, which saw Brent touch $16, weighed on Gulf markets. * Trump and Iran exchanged threats about destroy...

Hungary sold EUR 2bn of 6 and 12-year bonds yesterday

HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Apr 2020

Well, it did not take too much time for the government to adjust its 2020 financing plan to the new situation and to start the implementation of the amended financing plan right away.The amended government budget, which raised the deficit target for this year from 1% to 2.7% of GDP, has identifie...

President Duterte extends ECQ in key regions

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 24 Apr 2020

President Rodrigo Duterte today announced the extension until May 15 of Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) in key parts of Luzon island deemed “high-risk”, including the three top contributors to GDP, Metro Manila (36%), Calabarzon (17%) and Central Luzon (9.8%). He also decided to transition se...

GlobalSource Partners' Analyst Webinar Series: Russia's response to the crisis: a mix of easing and tightening

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Apr 2020

In the webinar, Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Alexander Kudrin provided insight into Russia's ability to weather the dual impact of the coronavirus lockdown and the oil crisis on its economy and external accounts

Last french fries factory in Russia shut temporarily

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Apr 2020

On April 24 the only French fries factory in Russia closed for the time being. Belaya Dacha Factory opened in 2018 in Lipestk. 100 000 tons of French fries were produced there in 2019. Fast food joints no longer had to import fries. Fast food restaurants have stopped operating.Belaya Dacha has 20...

Dispute over the direction of the economy

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2020

The announcement of the Pró-Brasil program – public investment measures to increase job creation and economic growth with a focus on infrastructure – evinced a dispute in the Jair Bolsonaro government over the direction of the economy in the post-pandemic period. Practically at the same time that...

The NBU slashes prime rate down to 8%, anticipates better CAD amid COVID-19 crisis

UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Apr 2020

The NBU Board slashed prime rate by 200 basis points down to 8% today. Low inflation (+2.3% y/y in March), no dramatic impact of COVID-19 crisis on external accounts so far, stabilized hryvnia and falling prices for hydrocarbons are behind this decision. That strong a cut was not expected, to be ...

Government intensifies political articulation

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2020

Negotiations are underway with the aim of easing relations between the Planalto Palace and the National Congress. Alongside the military wing’s actions to mend the relationship between Jair Bolsonaro and Rodrigo Maia, the president of the Republic will also meet with the Mayor of Salvador, ACM Ne...