GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

In this call, Lucas de Aragao discussed the political environment in the aftermath of Sergio Moro's resignation, including President Bolsonaro's positioning and support, and the prospects for Brazil's reform agenda.

Russia's vast size shows difficulties containting COVID-19 infections

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 May 2020

On April 30 Russia's prime minister announced he has coronavirus. Mikhail Mishustin's duties are temporarily being carried out by deputy prime minister Andrei Belousov. Putin has never before appointed someone to do another's duty due to the incumbent's illness.Over 114 000 people have been diagn...

In a nod to the bases, Bolsonaro polarizes regarding the Supreme Court

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Apr 2020

Alongside the positive signs made yesterday towards the Federal Supreme Court (STF) with the indications of André Mendonça for the Ministry of Justice and Public Security and José Levi for the Advocacy General of the Union (AGU) – names with good relations in the STF – President Jair Bolsonaro st...

Can South Africa weather the COVID-19 storm?

SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 30 Apr 2020

Summary and Assumptions • Emerging Markets: As the COVID19-induced global economic chaos intensifies, there has been an even greater shift of capital from emerging markets to countries considered safer as investors are becoming more risk averse. This, together with the steep contraction in eco...

Inflation Report: Another day in the dialogue of the deaf

TURKEY · Report · 30 Apr 2020

The CBRT has released the year's second Inflation Report today, according to which the Bank cut its year-end inflation forecast from 8.2% to 7.4%, while keeping the 2021 forecast unchanged at 5.4%. The revision is due to downward pressure from lower commodity prices and weak domestic demand condi...

Russia encourages Iran to stand firm against the USA

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Apr 2020

On April 29 Moscow said that Iran should not cave in to American provocations. Russia asked Tehran to be cautious and restrained. The United States was slammed for ''aggressive rhetoric''. Iran and the US have argued over the incident on April 15 in which 11 Iranian patrol boats came close to a U...

Ukraine seeks to bring Russia to the International Criminal Court

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Apr 2020

On April 21 Ukraine's prosecutor-general launched an investigation into Russian actions in Crimea, Luhansk and Donbass. Kyiv alleges that Russia has committed crimes against humanity in these regions. These are persecution, illegal conscription, show trials, shelling of civilians, kidnapping, inh...

STF blocks Bolsonaro appointee to Federal Police

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Apr 2020

The decision of the Minister of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), Alexandre de Moraes, to suspend the appointment of Alexandre Ramagem to the top position at the Federal Police´s (PF) represents a setback for President Jair Bolsonaro, who had chosen him to replace Maurício Valeixo. In a prelim...

Ramadan in the midst of pandemic

INDONESIA · Report · 29 Apr 2020

The fourth week of April 2020 was the start of the month of Ramadan, the fasting month for the people of the Islamic religion. Under normal circumstances, this is the peak of the business cycle for most companies in Indonesia. Two to three months prior to Ramadan, imports usually surge in order f...

China virus check – week ending April 27

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 29 Apr 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) A slight decline in coal use in the power industry and a slight decrease in iron ore blast furnace operating rates. 2) Traffic congestion is up significantly but expressway traffic dipped. 3) A big jump in underground metro...

Bolsonaro selects new Justice Minister and Federal Police General Director

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Apr 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro appointed André Mendonça, who until now was the Attorney General of the Union (AGU), as Sergio Moro’s replacement in the Ministry of Justice and Public Security. His appointment is a compromise. Mendonça has good relations with the ministers of the Federal Supreme Court ...

Bracing for shrinkage of up to 4%

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Apr 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic is still developing in El Salvador, with negative economic effects arriving on the heels of the government’s tough measures to cope with it. The virus arrived relatively late, with the first positive case recorded on March 18th. That was almost two weeks after the first case...

Oil forecast 2020-2021: near total collapse

VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Apr 2020

Even compared to the current terrible state of Venezuela’s oil industry, we forecast that output and exports will plunge further this year and the next. In our 2020–2021 central scenario, oil output falls throughout this year, reaching 250,000 barrels per day in December 2020 (from 907,000 in Dec...

Russian incomes fall sharply

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Apr 2020

Russian incomes fell by 0.2% in Q1 of 2020. The fall started before the coronavirus quarantine. The decline is partly due to the collapse in the price of the hydrocarbons and the concomitant reduction in the value of the RUB. Incomes are likely to continue to decline in Q2. The small income gains...

No policy change, no surprise at today's Monetary Council meeting

HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Apr 2020

The monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council did not bring about any policy change. Indeed, no one expected any, as the existing unusual circumstances pushed the previous meeting, the one on April 7, forward into the position of the month's real rate-setting session, and a large numbe...