GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Mikheil Saakashvili will be appointed Vice-Prime Minister coordinating reforms, according to his Facebook page. Recall Saakashvili entered Ukrainian politics after the Revolution of Dignity in 2014. Ex-president Petro Poroshenko named him ‘an old friend’ and in 2015 appointed Saakashvili governor...

GCC fiscal deficit could reach $250bn in 2020 with a 16% drop in non-oil output

GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 22 Apr 2020 · 1 response

Recent forecasts of the impact of COVID-19 have looked optimistic. We have built a model to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on the GCC states in different scenarios. In our baseline, we assume a 23% drop in non-oil output for 6 months and an oil price of $30 on average in 2020-21. In this scenari...

Russia: Pandemic update

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 Apr 2020

Economy taking a hitRosstat reported that industrial output was up by a mere 0.3% y-o-y in March, which brought the 1Q20 y-o-y growth figure to just 1.5%. Seasonally adjusted March figure was 1.3% down m-o-m. Mining y-o-y was flat in 1Q20 and down by 1.3% in March, while manufacturing growth in M...

South Africa’s bold R500 billion Covid-19 relief package announced on Day 25 of the nationwide lockdown

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Apr 2020

In a previous report we highlighted the fact that, although South African government coffers are in a precarious state, the government still had to find ways to mobilize funds for tackling the Covid-19 pandemic’s catastrophic health, social and economic impact. The government has found a way to d...

Essential CIS Politics: April 2020

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 22 Apr 2020

▪ Coronavirus has hit all countries in the region. The oil exporting ones are suffering most heavily, with several percentage points likely to be wiped off GDP. ▪ Belarus is carrying on as though Covid-19 is no threat despite admitting to some cases. ▪ The end of the OPEC+ oil deal caused econo...

Mamma Mia!

TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Apr 2020 · 1 response

The Monetary Policy Committee has cut the policy rate (weekly repo) by another 100 bps today to 8.75% (simple), which is more than our, as well as the consensus forecasts of around 50 bps reduction (see chart). To be honest, we stopped being surprised by our central bank’s actions to a great exte...

Russian oil company Tatneft may have to delay dividend payout

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Apr 2020

Tatneft has dropped its plan to buy out shareholders. On April 22 the board of Tatneft advised cancelling its planned payout of fourth quarter dividend that was due in June. The company is desperate to keep money in its accounts so it can get through this downturn. Tatneft is the 5th biggest oil ...

USA sends ambassador to Belarus

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Apr 2020

On April 20 Trump nominated the first US ambassador to Belarus in 12 years. There has been a thaw in US-Belarussian relations. Julie Fisher is being sent to Minsk. Ms. Fisher is a career diplomat, not a political appointee. She has served in other former USSR countries and speaks fluent Russian. ...

China Q1 revenue

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Apr 2020

The Chinese Ministry of Finance Tuesday afternoon issued its budget and revenue report for Q1 2020. The headline numbers showed a year-on-year decline of 14.3%. But items jumped out that are worth flagging, some of which are difficult to understand.

China virus check – week ending April 21

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Apr 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Rising coal use in the power industry and a slight increase iron ore blast furnace operating rates. 2) A slight rise in the growth of traffic congestion. 3) Expressway traffic up 10%. 4) Metro rail traffic is down slightly. 5) Sh...

Will President Rodrigo Duterte lift the Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) on April 30?

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Apr 2020

With just a little over a week to go, the debate in policy circles has turned fiercer. It is not difficult to detect the bias within government for another extension, especially after resigned socio-economic planning secretary Ernesto Pernia revealed that his was a “dissonant voice” in the Dutert...

Finally, a unity government in Israel + dovish MPC protocol

ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Apr 2020

Prime Minister Netanyahu and Blue & White party leader Gantz have signed an agreement to form a unity government. Under the agreement, Netanyahu and Gantz will rotate the premiership. Netanyahu will serve as prime minister for eighteen months and Gantz for eighteen months after him. The original ...

Is Turkey deferring S-400 activation?

TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Apr 2020 · 1 response

In penning this Market Brief I’m torn between accuracy and timeliness.I opted out for timeliness, hoping the report by Reuters that Turkey will defer the activation ofS-400 anti-missile systems “to a future date” will not be refuted by the Erdogan administration. Traditionally, the Palace is extr...

Bolsonaro’s dual strategy

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Apr 2020

After the negative repercussions of his participation in a protest with supporters that supported a military intervention and the closing of the Federal Supreme Court and Congress, President Jair Bolsonaro, when leaving the official residence at the Alvorada Palace, stated that Congress and the S...

Bolsonaro: The risks of radicalizing the narrative

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Apr 2020

Despite the Tuesday, April 21, holiday, this will be a busy week. The Lower House may vote on urgency for the bill that institutes compulsory loans for companies with assets greater than R$ 1 billion. Congress may also vote on the provisional measure that reduces salaries and working hours, as we...