GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Parliament has just voted in a revised spending plan 2020. The main changes to new budget are: Revenues’ target cut by 10.9% or UAH 119.7 billion;COVID-19 Fund was created – UAH 64.7 billion or 1.5% of GDP;Initial spending (net of COVID-19 Fund) increased moderately by 1.5%;Revised deficit up to ...

Deep Recession in the World and Brazil

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Apr 2020

In the past week the diagnosis has become consolidated that the world is headed toward a deeper recession than that in 2008-2009, and this will be the same path of the Brazilian economy. Despite the irresponsible attitude of President Bolsonaro, Health Minister Mandetta and the state governors ar...

Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 13.4.20

ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Apr 2020

With Israel maintaining a nearly completely shut down, the number of unemployment (or forced non-pay vacation) represents 25% of the workforce. Plans are underway to gradually open up the shutdown following the Passover holidays on April 19th. The number of new Covid-19 infections has declined in...

No end in sight to the distress

TURKEY · Report · 12 Apr 2020 · 2 responses

As Turkey’s caseload reached around 52K by Saturday, which may be a significant undercount, we have begun to question the administration’s capacity to suppress the epidemic in a timely manner. Short of an unanticipated decision of an open-ended national curfew, the outbreak is unlikely to peak be...

Kazakh ruling family's UK property declared legal

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Apr 2020

A London court has ruled in favor of the Kazakh leader's family on April 8. The Nazarbayev family has over GBP 100 million worth of property in the United Kingdom. Nursultan Nazarbayev has the title 'Leader if the Nation' in Kazakhstan - he retired as president in 2019. The National Crime Agency ...

Russian State buys majority of Sberbank

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Apr 2020

On April 10 the Russian State purchased a majority stake in Sberbank which is the biggest of all banks in Russia. The State bought it from the Russian Central Bank. The deal cost USD 28.5 billion. The price is based on the average share price of Sberbank in March 2020. Almost all the shares have ...

Gulf weekly: OPEC+ forges 10m b/d deal, Qatar & Abu Dhabi issue $17bn

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Apr 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * OPEC+ agrees to 2-years of historic cuts but market is not yet impressed. * Qatar issued $10bn in bonds and Abu Dhabi issued $7bn. Dub...

Covid-19 will boost inflation in Q2

VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Apr 2020

After a brief spell of disinflation earlier this year, we now expect inflation to speed up in the second quarter, owing in part to Covid-19 and related factors. Month-on-month inflation will exceed 50 percent starting in May. The government has begun to ramp up public spending. We think it’ll ...

GlobalSource Partners' Analyst Webinar Series: Turkey - The Shock, the Context, the Response and the Outlook

TURKEY · Report · 10 Apr 2020

Live from Istanbul, Murat Ucer addresses the prospects for Turkey's economy going forward, the country's fiscal and monetary response to the coronavirus, and the fx flow and balance of payments issues the country is currently facing.

The “real” China stimulus plan

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Apr 2020

In a key meeting of the Politburo on March 28, China proposed a series of stimulus measures. However, these measures will account for about half the size of the 2009 stimulus as a percentage of GDP. In addition, some, such as SME loans, will be slowed due to bureaucratic delays. We believe a seco...

Bolsonarismo’s new narrative

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Apr 2020

The use of hydroxychloroquine in people infected with coronavirus is the new bet of President Jair Bolsonaro to try to take back the initiative in the political debate. According to the president, doctors have been using the medicine for almost two months in Brazil. Yet, although there are promis...

Russian Government predicts prolonged recession

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2020

On April 6 RBK published a summary of the Kremlin's two stress testes that it has developed to estimate the financial robustness of 646 firms which the government considers strategically important. The rosier of the two scenarios says that the quarantine will last into June 2020 and Urals oil wil...

South Africa extends COVID-19 lockdown while the economy is feeling the effects of the pandemic

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Apr 2020

Midnight today will mark the second week of South Africa’s COVID-19 lockdown, implemented by President Ramaphosa hoping to "flatten the infection curve" of the virus. The lockdown was scheduled to end on April 16. However, due to the nature of the virus, there had been speculation that the lockdo...

Turkish Macroeconomics in the Time of Corona The Shock, the Context, the Response and the Outlook

TURKEY · Presentation · 09 Apr 2020

In this presentation, Murat Ucer discusses Turkey's state of activity and balance of payments issues amid the coronavirus epidemic. He evaluates the country's fiscal and monetary response, including lower rates and the expansion of the monetary base, and concludes that a more comprehensive fiscal...

China virus check – week ending April 4

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Apr 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Rising coal use in the power industry and iron ore blast furnace operating rates. 2) Traffic congestion grows – a good sign for the return of economic activity. 3) Metro rail traffic is rising in all four cities we track. 4) Expre...