GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On April 2 Russia legally limited the amount of grain that can be exported. This will apply to wheat, maize, barley, rye and a mixture of them called meslin. Only 7 million tonnes of the foregoing can be exported. The export limits exclude Kazakhstan and Belarus since they are in a customs union ...

In search of bold action

TURKEY · Report · 05 Apr 2020 · 2 responses

As the number of patients rose to ca 24K as of Saturday, President Erdogan was compelled to instate an intercity travel ban for 30 major cities and mandatory facemasks in public. Yet, he shied away from a nationwide curfew. While the new public health measures may be useful in slowing down the ep...

Recession looming

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Apr 2020

The coronavirus is indeed spreading much faster than analysts can update GDP growth forecasts. Our last update was only a month ago, before the World Health Organization declared a pandemic. That number, a 50bp downgrade to 5.7%, lower than other analysts’ forecasts at the time, is clearly now ov...

New details of a fiscal action plan were revealed this morning

HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Apr 2020

Following weeks of growing public expectation, the government this morning went further to reveal its fiscal action plan in response the Covid-19 crisis, and also promised to announce many more details over the coming week.In total, government speakers are talking about the fiscal intervention to...

Foreigners selling Russian federal bonds

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Apr 2020

On April 2 data from the Russian Exchange showed foreigners were dumping Russian federal bonds (OFZs). Over USD 3.5 billion worth were sold in March. This is the biggest sell off of any month ever. It is more than twice the sell off of June 2018 caused by US sanctions. This is due to the fear eng...

Polls show wear on Bolsonaro

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Apr 2020

Two polls released today, April 3, show wear on President Jair Bolsonaro amid the coronavirus crisis. According to Datafolha, Bolsonaro’s performance is rated as “bad/very bad” by 39% of respondents. The president’s approval rating is at 33%. According to XP/Ipespe, the president’s negative ratin...

Gulf weekly: Bahrain repays, Qatar looks to issue and oil bounces

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Apr 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil rebounded on hopes of a new OPEC+ deal after a Trump-MBS call. * Coronavirus cases doubled in the Gulf but the growth rate halve...

Russia’s response to the virus update: a mix of reasonable macroeconomic policy and somewhat chaotic measures to support the economy

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Apr 2020

As Russian financial markets bounced back and the ruble strengthened, there is still a great deal of uncertainty about how the situation may evolve in Russia. Even though oil prices have jumped, they may easily go down if the situation deteriorates globally. In trying to address these issues the ...

Ukraine struggles with coronavirus

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Apr 2020

On April 3 Ukraine announced that coronavirus cases rose 138 in one day. The total is now 942. Only 4400 tests have been carried out in a country of 40 million. Therefore the true coronavirus figure is perhaps much higher. On April 3 a new regulation forbade people from going outside without a ma...

All is relatively dull on the inflation front

TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2020 · 1 response

CPI inflation came in at 0.57%, m/m, in March broadly in line with expectations (0.5%), with the 12-month CPI rate hence easing to 11.9% from 12.4% in February. Domestic-PPI inflation came in at 0.87% in the month, which also lowered the 12-month rate to 8.5%, from 9.3% in the previous month (Gra...

GlobalSource Partners' Analyst Webinar Series: Mexico - Economic and governability crises knock on the door

MEXICO · Report · 02 Apr 2020

Live from Mexico City, Mauricio Gonzalez and Guillermo Valdes discuss their forecasts for the country's economy, Pemex’s finances, and the prospects for governability in the current time of global crisis and uncertainty.

Bolsonaro wants Provisional Measure approved before emergency aid law

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Apr 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro said he will send a provisional measure (MP) to the National Congress and will await its approval before sanctioning the emergency aid of R$ 600 for informal workers. Although Bolsonaro signed the bill approved by Congress yesterday, the measure is not in force because th...

Russian oil price rock bottom as Rosneft leaves Venezuela

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Apr 2020

On April 2 Russian Urals oil fetched USD 18 per barrel. This is the lowest price for several years. Brent crude is selling at up to USD 36 per barrel. Oil exports from Russia are barely making a profit. Rosneft spend USD 5 to produce and refine a barrel of oil. However, tax, export duty and trans...

South Africa has limited firepower to mitigate significant economic fallout from COVID-19

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 02 Apr 2020

On top of the public health crisis that is likely to take place in South Africa from the growing COVID-19 threat, the economic fallout is going to be momentous. Even as he announced the 21-day country lockdown, President Ramaphosa acknowledged that the economy was going to suffer because of conta...

Covid-19 in Venezuela: New challenges, old policies

VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Apr 2020

Governments and parliaments across the world scramble to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic supporting consumption and easing bank lending. Initiatives and their timing are country-specific, but the overarching goal is to mitigate human suffering and protect the economy in order to allo...