GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The presidents of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, Caixa Econômica Federal, Pedro Guimarães, and BNDES, Gustavo Montezano, announced a series of measures to help small and medium-sized companies, in addition to people economically affected by the coronavirus. The creation of an emergency...

Ukraine declares state of emergency

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Mar 2020

On 24 March Ukraine declared a state of emergency over coronavirus. 218 people have been diagnosed with the disease which is a rise of 62 in one day. Only 5 people have died thus far. After Kyiv it is Chernivtsi Region that is the hardest hit. Quarantine has been prolonged until April 14. On Marc...

Covid-19 positives reached 528 as the economy paralyze

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 27 Mar 2020

This morning, the Ministry of Public Health reported that the total number of positive cases for Covid-19 is 528, 93 more than yesterday (March 25) and 189 more than the previous day. 20 people have died from Covid-19 related conditions, twice as many as yesterday, and three have recovered. The i...

Coping with the coronavirus threat

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Mar 2020

In Guatemala, President Alejandro Giammattei, who took office on January 14th, is facing what will likely be the toughest challenge of his term. The coronavirus pandemic has already reached Guatemala, and the short-term outlook for the country is changing dramatically. Until February, we expect...

Covid-19 and India

INDIA · Report · 27 Mar 2020

In this report, we focus on how India is different from the trajectory of Covid 19 as seen in (say) the US. We start on this problem in the context of a weak economy and financial system. There is low state capacity, including in the field of public health. The data shows 24,254 persons tested...

Gulf weekly: S&P downgrades Kuwait and Oman, and virus lockdowns intensify

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Mar 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil remained very weak, but a grand US-Saudi-Russia deal is unlikely to happen. * Coronavirus cases more than tripled in Saudi and U...

GlobalSource Partners' Analyst Webinar Series: GCC - Navigating Gulf uncertainty amidst the oil crash and corona crisis

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Mar 2020

Justin Alexander provides an update on the GCC countries amid the oil and coronavirus crises, with a focus on the collapse of the OPEC+ deal, fiscal scenarios, and the impact on each of the GCC countries individually. Longer-term trends are worrisome for Saudi, and Oman and Bahrain are likely to ...

Cabinet suggests 5% of GDP deficit amid fierce fight between “no default” and “let’s default” camps

UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Mar 2020

The Cabinet has submitted an amended budget to the parliament, Oleksiy Honcharenko, an MP from European Solidarity of Petro Poroshenko, wrote on his Facebook page yesterday. New deficit was outlined at the level of UAH 202 billion or near 4.7% of GDP. Funds within the budget will be re-distribute...

China seed store check – March 27

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Mar 2020

Here’s an update on a local check of villages that are blocking, partially closing, or keeping open access to their towns for seed shipments. This is an indication of how much economic activity is returning to normal, and whether there will be a delay in spring planting.

Could China’s banks handle a large stimulus package?

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Mar 2020

The current debate is about how China can engineer a V-shaped recovery when (and if) the virus abates. What shape will a stimulus take and what will the impact be on China’s long-term economic trajectory? I have argued that the state has been disciplined about avoiding a large-scale stimulus meas...

The Panamanian government successfully funded the budget needs for the health and social expenditures required to battle the virus

PANAMA · Report · 27 Mar 2020

In the absence of monetary stimuli in a dollarized economy, the Ministry of Economics and Finance is giving the final touches to the pre-funding package of public sector expenditures for additional subsidies to poor families (cash and in-kind transfers). The MEF successfully floated US$ 2.5 billi...

Russian banks lending

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Mar 2020

Sberbank and VTB announced on March 26 that they are lending money to small businesses to pay salaries. In some cases these will be zero % interest. First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov helped persuade the banks to do so. The loans will be issued on March 30 and last for up to 6 months.

Forecasting in a time of radical uncertainty (3)

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Mar 2020

What we know so far: Significant uncertainty exists as the virus continues to spread at immense cost to human lives. Infections continue to rise, health systems are struggling to cope and necessary lockdowns have been imposed in many developed and developing countries to slow the virus’s transmis...

S&P downgrades Kuwait and Oman, affirms rest of GCC

GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 26 Mar 2020

In the first coordinated set of rating actions since the onset of the twin crises of coronavirus and the oil crash, Standard & Poor’s downgraded Kuwait to AA- and Oman to BB- (Negative outlook) and also lowered Bahrain’s outlook to Stable (from positive) but affirmed its B+ rating, the lowest in ...

Bolsonaro “embraces” the defense of the economy, and Congress articulates its agenda

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Mar 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro continues to send signals to his electoral base. Today, March 26, he signed a decree that makes religious activities of any nature part of the list of essential activities amid the coronavirus crisis. The presidential decree also includes lottery houses, which also perfor...