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Politics: AMLO campaigns, Morena struggles
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jun 2020 · 1 response

With a drastic worsening of economic, political, public health and social conditions potentially jeopardizing his party’s chances next year, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador unofficially began campaigning, with visits to the states beginning June 1, many months before candidates for public o...

The Consensus and the IMF Projections: Which Is Most Realistic?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jun 2020

Last week the IMF published new projections for growth in 2020 and 2021, with marked reductions, conflicting with the “optimism” indicated by the appreciation of stock prices in the United States, Europe and Brazil. According to the fundamentals, the prices of shares reflect the present value of ...

Economics: Indicators confirm worsening in key economic sectors
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jun 2020

Economic news published in June confirmed expectations of a rapidly deteriorating economic situation. Although the Mexican economy had already been suffering negative results for several months, beginning in the second half of March that downtrend was aggravated by the Covid-19 effect, with readi...

The pandemic hit the real economy and the fiscal situation harder than anticipated. Banks face a year of living dangerously…while the PRD Party (in power) criticizes Cortizo.
PANAMA · Report · 29 Jun 2020

The government's estimate of a GDP contraction of 3.3 percent for 2020 (projected in March by the MEF) seems optimistic now, because the economy is in a virtual shutdown of more than fifty percent of real activity, with no date in sight for further re-openings. Unemployment may double by the end ...

Growth in private consumption stalls
ISRAEL · Report · 29 Jun 2020

The number of new Covid-19 infections has accelerated recently, and some restrictions are likely to be imposed. Private consumption growth stalled in the last week and is still 12% below the beginning of the year. A slow economic recovery supports steady Bank of Israel bond purchases geared towar...

Russia brings forward delivery of air defense system to India
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jun 2020

On June 26 Kommersant reported that Russia is going to deliver S-400 air defense systems to India this year. They were supposed to be delivered in 2021. An S-400 system protects airspace. Border clashes between India and China led to Delhi requesting the S-400 system be delivered ahead of schedul...

A pregnant pause
TURKEY · Report · 28 Jun 2020

Turkish politics is a rich vein of gold that keeps political analysts entertained and well-paid. At the eve of July, a time when centralized high school and college entrance exams are finally out of the way, which means families with children will head South for a well-deserved vacation, the caul...

Growth in private consumption stalls
ISRAEL · In Brief · 28 Jun 2020

Highlights of the Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 29.6.20Recent data points to a slow recovery as PC growth remains weak:Credit card purchases in the week ending June 22th reflected stability, and are still down 12% compared to the beginning of the year.Google mobility data shows mobility to work is ...

New CNE in a rush
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 27 Jun 2020 · 1 response

The new National Electoral Council (CNE) rushes to change the rules in time for the December 2020 legislative elections following orders from the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ.) The plan is to reform 12 articles of the Elections Law in order to ensure PSUV’s control over the National Assembly ...

Restarting economic activity
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Jun 2020 · 1 response

We noted in our last brief that: (a) the surprise 50bp monetary policy rate cut reflects authorities’ increased worries about weaker economic growth; (b) multilateral agencies’ updated forecasts this month for 2020 GDP growth, i.e., -1.9% for the World Bank, -3.8% for the ADB and -3.6% for the IM...

Russian mercenaries seize Libyan oil field
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Jun 2020

On June 25 Russian and other mercenaries took over an oil field in the south Libya. The Libyan Government announced the Al Sharaa field's seizure. It belongs to the National Oil Corporation (NOC) which is Libyan. The oil field produces 315 000 barrels a day. That is a third of the country's outpu...

New tensions amid the armistice
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jun 2020

This week, President Jair Bolsonaro managed to advance in the armistice between the powers. In addition to signaling dialogue with the presidents of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Dias Toffoli, the House of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, and the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre, the victory achieved by the def...

​GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain reserves collapse, Oman downgraded, Qatar affirmed, Hajj curtailed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Jun 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Bahrain belatedly published 3 months of FX reserves, which hit a record low in April. * Moody’s downgraded Oman to Ba3 (Negative) despite expectations of GCC support. * F...

Capital flight and Hong Kong fund management
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 26 Jun 2020

One of the concerns about the National Security Law is its impact on China’s role as an international financial center. The legal structure for financial transactions will not be directly affected. However, any significant contravention of global norms for individual protestors may face oppositio...

Russia voting on constitutional reform
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jun 2020

On June 25 Russia began voting in a referendum on constitutional amendments. Polls are open till July 1. The week long referendum is intended to facilitate social distancing but also to boost turnout. Some people are allowed to vote online. The amendments would allow Putin to serve another two te...

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