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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

No rest for the weary
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jul 2020

The politics section starts with our suspicions that Ministry of Health may be underreporting COVID-19 cases, which, of course, is only a suspicion, but if true, it has very significant and negative repercussions for the economy, and public trust more broadly. Beyond COVID-19, we have articula...

President of Belarus has coronavirus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jul 2020

On July 29 Alexander Lukashenka announced that he has coronavirus. He insists that he has a mild case. He is currently running for his sixth term as president. Lukashenka at first dismissed coronavirus as a psychosis. He refused to allow any mitigation measures to be taken. The president is 66 an...

SAUDI: Deficit rises to $29bn in Q2 but underlying fiscal performance looks okay
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Jul 2020 · 2 responses

​Aramco drew on its cash reserves to pay a large dividend, so oil revenue fell by less than exports. Spending continued to fall as ongoing consolidation exceeded stimulus measures, including cuts in social benefits and the military. Even so, the deficit tripled q/q to $29.1bn. Part of the reason ...

Guedes conditions income tax exemptions upon the creation of new taxes
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jul 2020

After a meeting today at the Planalto Palace, Economy Minister Paulo Guedes indicated that an expansion of the range of people exempt from Income Tax (IR) will only be possible after the creation of a new tax to expand the government´s revenue base. The expansion of the tax base designed by the ...

Strong supply-side performance, weak demand side
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 29 Jul 2020

Special points to highlight in this issue: * Since April I have been suggesting that China’s GDP growth rate in 2020 would probably be around 2-3 percent, well above most other estimates. As I expected, second quarter growth was stronger than most other analysts predicted, and I think we wi...

Growth forecast at 1.8% this year
CHINA · Forecast · 29 Jul 2020

GDP turned in a remarkable performance amid global pandemic, rising 3.2% y/y in Q2. Industrial output was up 4.8% y/y in June, and up 0.4 pps from May, though the growth rate has still not reached its pre-pandemic level, and was down 1.1 pps from Q4 2019. Investment, mostly driven by state invest...

Afghanistan after America: Consequences for Russia and Central Asia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 29 Jul 2020

The US is leaving Afghanistan after battling for 19 largely fruitless years. What next? American withdrawal is largely the only certainty here. U.S. President Trump is determined to pull out and has never wavered on this. Almost no one criticizes him for his intention to bring all the troops home...

The rate of unemployment is worrying, and the government is preparing measures
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jul 2020

Data released today by the Ministry of the Economy, through the General Registry of Employed and Unemployed Workers (Caged), points out that the economy lost 1.19 million formal jobs in the first half of 2020. According to Bruno Bianco, Special Secretary for Social Security and Labor at the Mini...

Chile: Cabinet Shuffle
CHILE · In Brief · 28 Jul 2020

President Sebastián Piñera announced a major cabinet shuffle today, replacing six ministers, the most important of which was the Minister of the Interior. Gonzalo Blumel, who has been seen by the hard right as too soft on the protests and, more recently, as unable to push through the government’s...

South Africa aims to revive the economy via investment in Strategic Integrated Infrastructure Projects
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 28 Jul 2020

Just over a month ago, on June 23, we wrote a report on the inaugural Sustainable Infrastructure Development Symposium of South Africa (SIDSSA) – another instrument in President Cyril Ramaphosa’s drive aimed at boosting South Africa’s infrastructure investment and its economy. What had emerged du...

China virus check – week ending July 27
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Jul 2020

​Our latest data for economic activity in China showed mixed data for the most recent period. Coal use for electricity fell, which could signal weakness in the industrial sector, which has been the prime generator of economic growth under Beijing’s stimulus measures. Commercial property sales als...

Russian Government backed mortgages raise property sales
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jul 2020

Data published by RBK on July 27 revealed that a program to support mortgages has helped the property market recover just two months after the end of general lockdown. Mortgage lending was up by 28% in June Y o Y. USD 36 billion was lent to buyers in June 2020. The Joint Credit Bureau collated th...

Ukrainian bank claims it was used for money laundering
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jul 2020

On July 21 PrivatBank stated that its erstwhile owners used it to launder USD 800 million into the United States. The bank filed a complaint in Delaware against Ihor Kolomoisky and Hennadiy Boholyubov. The men allegedly used a group of American companies known as Optima. PrivtaBank filed a suit a...

A let down
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Jul 2020

Amidst criticisms that the government’s lockdown response, the world’s strictest and longest, has flattened the economy but not covid-19, many tuned in to President Rodrigo Duterte’s fifth State of the Nation Address (SONA) to hear his roadmap for recovery. Sadly, the speech was not attuned to th...

The MDB and DEM leave the Centrão
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jul 2020

Today, the MDB and DEM parties announced their departure from the Centrão, a group made up of the PL, PP, PSD, SD, PROS, PTB and Avante. The Centrão is the largest group of parties in the Lower House and is led by Deputy Arthur Lira (PP-AL), considered an informal leader of the Jair Bolsonaro gov...

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