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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

More aggressive bond purchases likely
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Jun 2020 · 1 response

Recent indicators point to further improvement in activity, but the level remains about 10% below that of pre-Covid. May's low CPI (-1.6% y/y) underlines mostly the sharp downward demand shock due to the crisis. Low inflation will strengthen the doves on the MPC (although a rate cut is not our ba...

Essential CIS Politics: June 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 22 Jun 2020

* Russia’s economy has been battered but rising energy prices and a new OPEC+ deal have given cause for hope. * The Russian government stimulus is modest but the economy is reopening as the country faces a constitutional reform referendum in July. * Ukraine has been buoyed by a...

The Deputy Governor sees more aggressive monetary policy only if the crisis worsens
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Jun 2020

Deputy Governor Abir last week said that the Bank’s high foreign exchange reserves are what enable aggressive monetary actions in the bond and FX market, and that they are a strategic asset for the Israeli economy. In addition, if the crisis worsens, the Bank has the ability to increase the exist...

No country for old analysts
TURKEY · Report · 21 Jun 2020 · 1 response

As we were finishing our final draft in the early morning hours in Istanbul, Egyptian President Sisi ordered his Armed Forces to prepare to intervene in Libya. While such a move could trigger clashes between Egypt and Turkey, we assign fairly low odds to a significant incident. Heads up, neverthe...

More aggressive bond purchases likely
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Jun 2020

Highlights of Weekly Israel Wrap Up May's CPI surprised on the downside, reaching -1.6% y/y. Inflation declined by 0.3% m/m compared to expectations of +0.1%. Apparel prices declined sharply, reaching -10.5% y/y from -3.8% in April. Core inflation (exc. energy and fresh produce) declined by -0.5%...

Kyrgzyzstan declares state was uninvolved in massive money laundering
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jun 2020

On June 18 the Kyrgyz Parliament voted that their government had no part in a massive money laundering scheme. USD 932 million were laundered and spirited abroad. A commission looked into the issue. A businessman was murdered in connection with money laundering.The commission said that foreign en...

The state of emergency was extended and the phase 3 of the reopening was postponed
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 20 Jun 2020

Last week, President Medina asked Congress to extend the state of emergency until June 30. Despite opposition from the main opposition parties, Congress approved it as some Congress members of the opposition broke party lines and joined the PLD on short-lived objectives. The PRM and the FP (oppos...

On the defensive, the government shows a willingness to dialogue
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Jun 2020

Despite the news from the main media outlets trying to connect Fabrício Queiroz, former aide to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Republicanos-RJ) from the time Flávio was a state deputy in Rio de Janeiro (RJ), with President Jair Bolsonaro, for now there are no facts to prove this relationship. However,...

Budget amendment bill more than double the government deficit
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 19 Jun 2020

As announced several weeks ago, President Medina sent a bill to Congress that amends the 2020 budget law. The new budget: a) reduces revenues estimates by 10.3% or 0.7% of GDP. The reduction is less than expected because it includes extraordinary revenues not considered in the previous budget for...

US sells naval boats to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jun 2020

On June 17 the United States approved the sale of 16 Mark VI patrol boats to Ukraine. The package is worth USD 600 million and includes sensors, radar, guns for the boats and communications equipment. This is the first defense sale to Ukraine in several months. The Trump administration is keen to...

The economy is hit but withstands the pandemic pressure
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Jun 2020

Rosstat released preliminary estimates of major economic indicators in May and 5m20 and most of them don’t look too bad given the current circumstances. A few days ago, GKEM Analytica already mentioned that even though manufacturing contracted in May, this contraction was as deep as in most Europ...

​GULF WEEKLY: WTO backs Qatar, Sabic deal restructured, oil rises on compliance
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Jun 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil rises on signs of improving OPEC+ compliance. * Coronavirus cases grew very rapidly in Saudi for a second week, but improved elsewhere. * Bahraini holdings of US Trea...

Corporates in Hong Kong
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 Jun 2020

China is proposing changes to the Basic Law that will fundamentally alter Hong Kong. Although the proposals for the new security law have not been outlined in detail, they are likely to include further close monitoring of behavior in general, increased intervention in the legal system by Beijing,...

China webinar featuring Michael Pettis - Without a target, what will impel growth?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Jun 2020

China webinar featuring Michael Pettis - Without a target, what will impel growth?​ Michael Pettis discusses the impact of the coronavirus on China's official growth targeting and its real economy.

Russia lifts ban on Telegram
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jun 2020

On June 18 Moscow announced that its 2 year ban on messaging service Telegram is over. The attempt to block it mostly failed. This might explain the decision. Roskomnadzor (the state communications regulator) said that the decision was because the owner Pavel Durov is now willing to co-operate on...

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