GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The Philippines today raised US$2.35 billion from international capital markets, priced at T+180 for a $1-billion 10y bond and 2.95% for a $1.35-billion 25y bond, the “lowest ever coupon” for both maturities per the National Treasurer. The borrowings come on top of some $1.8 billion secured recen...

Prestige for Paulo Guedes

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Apr 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro on April 27 made important gestures of affirmation toward the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes. In his traditional conversation with journalists near the Alvorada Palace, Bolsonaro was accompanied by Guedes and Ministers Tarcisio Freitas (Infrastructure), Tereza Cristina...

From person-to-person distancing to person-to market contacts: the journey to recovery

PANAMA · Report · 27 Apr 2020

The economic performance of Panama in 2020 may be slightly less optimistic than the projections of the multilaterals and rating agencies suggest (on average -2.0%), according to our estimates. The financing of a 6% NFPS deficit is almost complete, with a small gap to fill this year. We project a ...

The Centrao and Bolsonaro

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Apr 2020

The exit of Minister Sérgio Moro will continue to create ripples in Brasília. His resignation may affect votes in Congress such as the constitutional amendment proposal on the “war budget” and the pandemic aid package for states and municipalities. Requests for the creation of a Parliamentary Inq...

Politics: Covid and the breakdown of federalism

MEXICO · Report · 27 Apr 2020

The Covid-19 epidemic has emerged as the latest battle line pitting numerous state governors and municipal governments against President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, one that is likely to have lasting political implications in addition to potentially magnifying the human tragedy posed by the pand...

Russia 4th in arms spending

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2020

On April 27 the Peace Research Institute declared that Russia is now the 4th biggest spender on arms. In 2019 Russia spent USD 65 billion on arms. This is up from USD 61.4 billion in 2018. This is 3.9% of GDP which is almost the highest in Europe. Nearby NATO countries have increased defense spen...

Focusing on “six stabilities,” while struggling to grow

CHINA · Report · 27 Apr 2020

The Chinese economy was hit hard by the coronavirus in Q1, and GDP fell -6.8% y/y. Because the virus is almost contained in China, economic activities have since March been gradually picking up, and there were clear signs of recovery. Industrial output was down -1.1% y/y, up 12.4 pps from January...

Russia in Brief: Pandemic affected the economy in 1Q20, but not yet much

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2020

Rosstat reported that retail sales were strongly up in March (by 5.6% y-o-y) which lifted the 1Q20 y-o-y growth to 4.3%. Growth accelerated both in the food and non-food segments which in 1Q20 were up by 3.6% and 5.0% y-o-y. Clearly such an acceleration was largely driven by preemptive purchases ...

Russia’s macro policy: A peculiar mix of lower rates and FX interventions

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Apr 2020

As the markets expected, the CBR cut its key policy rate by 50 bps on April 24, hinted at more rate cuts of around 100 bps, and announced that monetary policy is becoming more accommodative. This is undoubtedly a strong positive message for the OFZ market, which had rallied a lot in anticipation ...

Heading to the Abyss, at High Speed

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Apr 2020 · 1 response

The Bolsonaro administration had been trying to follow a liberal program aimed at restoring the country to steady growth. It was making very slow progress toward the reforms necessary for fiscal consolidation when the COVID-19 pandemic hit, dooming the country to a recession and destroying the pr...

Economics: Worse than anything in many decades and without a goverment strategy

MEXICO · Report · 27 Apr 2020

With the 2020 international economic outlook made much worse by what the IMF has termed the "Great Lockdown" and the deepening of the oil market depression, we at GEA adjusted our 2020 macroeconomic forecasts from those we released March 27. Some financial institutions and analysts are forecasti...

Economic activity has declined by 31%

ISRAEL · Report · 27 Apr 2020

The BoI estimates that economic activity at present is 31% below that of pre-Covid-19. Moody's lowered Israel's rating outlook to stable from positive (at A1). The Bank of Israel appears satisfied with present market conditions and liquidity. In politics, Israel has a unity government, which is l...

Russia banning grain exports

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2020 · 1 response

On April 26 Russia announced that it is making most grain exports to most countries illegal until July 1 when the situation will be reviewed. The ban applies to rye, corn, barley and meslin which is an amalgam of wheat and rye. Eurasian Economic Union countries are exempted from the ban: Kazakhst...

Georgian economic stimulus

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2020

On April 24 Georgia announced a stimulus package of USD 1.1 billion. That does not seem much but the country has 4 000 000 people and the average annual wage is about USD 3 000. The economy is anticipated to shrink 4% in 2020.Prime Minister Georgi Gakharia said 10% of the stimulus package will go...

A race against time

TURKEY · Report · 26 Apr 2020

Turkey’s daily corona cases declined to under 3K for the first time in April on Saturday, which gives support to President Erdogan’s plans to lift many of the restrictions of movement on industry and people. Yet, there are strong reasons to believe that official data doesn’t capture whole reality...