GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Ukraine is going through something quite unusual: its economy remains an island of stability, in the midst of the global COVID-19 storm. Most likely the big blow is still ahead. However, right now the balance of trade is improving, on the back of strong demand for food exports, the currency is st...

Beijing abandons a 2020 GDP growth target

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 May 2020 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Li Keqiang announced that Beijing would not set a GDP growth target for 2020. • If this represents a real change in economic policy-making going forward, this would be a good sign that Beijing is ready to let go of a development policy that condemns ...

Moral hazard and the mysterious “keepwell” agreements

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 May 2020

The two dominant themes of Chinese economic policy over the past several years have been the growing use of private capital for state ends, and more recently, a reluctance to engage in a large-scale “Chinese QE.” Concerns about excess state debt have been imprinted on Xi Jinping by economic head ...

South Africa webinar featuring Iraj Abedian: Socio-economic preconditions and the Covid-19 crisis

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 May 2020

Iraj Abedian examines South Africa’s ability to cope with the coronavirus crisis based on its current macro and fiscal situation.

Peru launch webinar featuring Alfredo Thorne: Peru macro outlook at the time of the coronavirus

PERU · Report · 22 May 2020

Alfredo Thorne discusses the choices facing the government, which is at a crossroads between fighting the virus and reviving the economy in the face of the pandemic.

Russian national projects stalling

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 May 2020 · 1 response

On May 21 the Secretary of the National Security Council said that corruption is hampering the national projects. Procurement rules are not being adhered to. Work is sometimes badly executed or incomplete and account are falsified. Volga District is especially bad and USD 105 million would have b...

Progress in Bolsonaro’s relationship with state governors

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 May 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro’s video conference with state governors was an important institutional advance amid the health and economic crisis resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. Bolsonaro and the governors momentarily set aside the differences to sign two important agreements: 1. The...

Industry contracts in April amid the lockdown, but with now surprises

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 May 2020

According to Rosstat Industrial output contracted in April by 6.6% y-o-y and 9.2% m-o-m, which can be treated as a relatively good outcome compared to many other countries. In March, for instance, the industry in the EU and Euro area posted double-digit dive both in y-o-y and m-o-m. Note that in ...

US pulls out of Open Skies accusing Russia of breaches

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 May 2020

On May 21 the United States said that it would pull out of the Open Skies treaty because Russia is breaking it. There are 35 signatories of the treaty. The US will leave in November 2020. The treaty was signed in 2002. It permits signatories to fly surveillance flights over each others' land. The...

50 bps – that’s the new interest rate cut by the South Africa Reserve Bank

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 May 2020

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has once again announced that it is cutting the benchmark interest rate following today’s conclusion of its Monetary Policy Committee’s scheduled May meeting. The repo rate is being cut by 50 basis points following the 200 bps cuts implemented from end-March ...

Belarusian president disqualifies opponent

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 May 2020

On May 19 the leader of Belarus' main opposition party has been barred from standing in the presidential election scheduled for August 9 2020. Mikalay Statkevich has been forbidden to run for election because of a previous conviction. He served a jail term for organizing riots. 10 of the 55 who t...

Another 50 bps down, more to come

TURKEY · Report · 21 May 2020

At today’s rate-setting meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee reduced the policy rate (weekly-repo) by another 50 bps to 8.25% (simple), bringing the cumulative cuts since Turkey’s first official COVID case (March 11th) to 250 bps --and to 1575 bps since the easing cycle began in July.

OFZ: Going below 6%

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 21 May 2020

Last Friday the yield of the longest OFZ dropped below 6% for the first time ever. Strong demand from both domestic and international investors not only pushed the curve down but also allowed the Finance Ministry to set a new single day placement record this Wednesday — R169 bln. Market participa...

US and Russia row over Venezuela

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 May 2020

On May 19 the US blocked a UN resolution condemning the use of mercenaries in Venezuela. Russia said there was a conspiracy to overthrow President Maduro who is pro-Russian. Maduro said the plot was conceived in Washington DC and his army defeated a seaborne invasion. People have been arrested in...

Russia Q1 data in shows severe GDP fall

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 May 2020

On May 19 Vedomosti newspaper published statistics on Q1 for Russia. There was 1.6% y o y growth. The economy shrank 28% in April. Analysts reckon that most of this is due to quarantine and a third is due to the oil price crash to USD 18 p b. It is estimated that there will be a GDP 16% drop in Q...