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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Recession—the beginning or the end?
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Sep 2020

What we have seen in the past few months clearly shows that Covid-19 has not only hit people's health, but also their welfare. Particularly in Indonesia, where the informal economy is large, the implementation of restrictions on mobility in various areas was a big blow to people's income. The aff...

Evergrande and stress in China’s property market
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Sep 2020

China’s property market has long been the weak link in the economy. It is the bubble that supports growth – including local consumption, fixed asset investment, and local government fiscal revenue. Although property sales remain healthy, the developers themselves are increasingly under financial ...

Politics: 4T and Morena electoral prospects for 2021
MEXICO · Report · 28 Sep 2020

The terrible impact of the economic and health crises, an administration that has proven itself ineffective in almost every aspect of governing, and the negative trend in popularity of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (see last week’s Political Outlook) are factors that are complicating the ...

​Takeaways from the Fiscal Risks Statement
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Sep 2020

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) published recently its annual Fiscal Risks Statement (FSR)[1]. This year’s report covers the impact of the covid19 pandemic on government’s fiscal health over the medium-term. Below are our key takeaways of fiscal risks to keep watch of over th...

Armenian opposition leader arrested as the country clashes with Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Sep 2020

On September 26 Armenia and Azerbaijan exchanged fire across the ceasefire in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh Region. The Azeris used many drones. Turkey has offered vocal support even more strident than usual. Both sides acknowledged sustaining deaths. On September 26 Gagik Tsarukyan was given two...

More political, lesser market tension
TURKEY · Report · 27 Sep 2020

The politics section of this Weekly devotes little space to foreign affairs, as it became almost certain that the EU would slap very light sanctions on Turkey, while other matters of foreign policy have a long fuse. At home though, a new crackdown on pro-Kurdish rights party HDP is liable to a...

Russia war games
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Sep 2020

On September 21 military exercises began in southern Russia. The exercises are called Caucasus 2020. China is participating along with Belarus, Iran, Myanmar and Kazakhstan. India had been due to take part but withdrew citing coronavirus. It is suspected that the ulterior reason was India's borde...

Implausible but most welcome: Moody's improved its Baa3 outlook from Stable to Positive yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Sep 2020

What is so surprising about this announcement is not so much the fact that Moody's has finally decided to move Hungary upward on its scale, towards the BBB/Stable ratings maintained both by Fitch Ratings and S&P. It is much more the timing of the decision, the fact that Moody's made this step exa...

More resources for Pronampe
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Sep 2020

The government will inject more resources into the National Support Program for Micro and Small Enterprises (Pronampe). The announcement was made by Senators Renan Calheiros (MDB-AL) and Kátia Abreu (PP-TO) after a meeting with the Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes. The announcement made ...

Yandex shares soar
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2020

On September 23 Yandex shares leapt 13% to their highest level after Yandex signed a deal with Tinkoff for USD 5.5 billion. The previous day they had jumped 11%. The shares have since fallen back considerably but they are still substantially above where they were on September 22. Yandex is likely...

FinCEN leak lifts the lid on Ukrainian corruption
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2020

The files showed that Barclays Bank transferred money for Ukrainian billionaire Rinat Akhmetov. This was despite filing Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) about it. Akhmetov is now the main bankroller of the Servant of the People - the party of Zelensky. Over USD 2 billion was transacted for for ...

​GULF WEEKLY: Qatar affirmed, Kuwait downgraded, Oman may issue, Libya partly restarts
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Sep 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Libya reopened some oil fields and export terminals, but less than a third of its capacity. * The US asserted UN sanctions had snapped back on Iran, while the UN Sec Gen s...

Mexico webinar featuring Mauricio Gonzalez and Guillermo Valdes – Budget 2021 and the macro and political outlook for Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 25 Sep 2020

Mauricio Gonzalez and Guillermo Valdes discuss the economic prospects for Mexico in light of the 2021 Budget, as well as the public’s appraisal of the recent performance of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s government.

Moscow reintroduces coronavirus restrictions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2020

On September 25 Moscow City asked people to work from home where possible from September 28. People over 65 are asked to stay inside as much as possible. The city is responding to 1,000 + cases of coronavirus being confirmed on September 24. This is the worst since June. The number of people admi...

Russia's coronavirus vaccine licensed in 23 countries
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Sep 2020

On September 24 Russia's sovereign wealth fund said that Avifair will be on the market in 23 countries. It is already sold in 6, and a further 17 countries have licensed it. Avifavir is made by ChemRar. It is on sale in Ukraine, Turkmenistan, Bolivia, Kazakhstan and other countries. It is not ava...

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