GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Finance Minister Tito Mboweni yesterday placed on the table the country’s 2020 Supplementary Budget, which is described as a bridge to the 2020 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement that is to be presented in October 2020, as is the norm. The previous budget, Budget 2020, was presented almost exact...

Pressure increases for the extension of the R$ 600 aid

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jun 2020

After the president of the House of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ), defended the extension of emergency aid in the amount of R$ 600 for two more months, and the emergence of the movement “Basic Income That We Want”, which unites 163 civil society movements, today it was the turn of the MDB, thro...

Revising down 2020 oil forecast following new U.S. sanctions

VENEZUELA · In Brief · 24 Jun 2020

We revise down our oil forecasts for 2020 owing to new sanctions announced by the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on June 18 and the chilling effect we expect them to have. Our forecast now has output averaging 465,000 barrels per day in 2020, compared with our previous 20...

Bank of Russia cuts key interest rate

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jun 2020

On June 19 the Bank of Russia (CBR) reduced the key interest rate 100 basis points to 4.5%. This is the lowest in decades and had been widely anticipated. The Governor of CBR repeatedly told the media earlier in June that a cut of this size was likely. She said that deflationary factors have been...

Weintraub exit continues to generate controversy

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jun 2020

The departure from Brazil last Saturday of former Minister of Education Abraham Weintraub continues to cause controversy. Weintraub´s sudden trip to the United States, where he plans to work as director of the World Bank, caused surprised last week – to take office, there are still bureaucratic i...

Former President of Kyrgyzstan jailed

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jun 2020

On June 23 former President Atambaev was given 11 years in jail for releasing a mob boss during his term of office. The court ruled that Atambaev had a corrupt motive in pardoning the gangster. All of Atambaev's family property is being confiscated. Several of his former cabinet ministers were al...

The MNB unexpectedly cut the base rate and the effective sterilisation rate

HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Jun 2020

Economists often fail to foresee policy events even for short term. They are normally much better at explaining the rationale of unforeseen policy steps... in hindsight. Somehow we feel to share this fate this time, at least as regards the first part of the foregoing statement.Against our - and a...

South Africa’s Infrastructure Symposium: An ambitious plan to boost investment and reignite growth

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Jun 2020

Today, President Ramaphosa presided over the country’s inaugural Sustainable Infrastructure Development Symposium of South Africa (SIDSSA), a meeting that was promised at the beginning of the year by the Presidency as a culmination of intense stakeholder consultative processes aimed at mobilizing...

Russia to raise tax on the rich

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jun 2020

On June 23 Putin announced that tax on those earning over USD 73 000 a year will rise. Incomes over USD 73 000 will be taxed at 15%. The system will take effect from January 1 2021. Until now the country had a 13% flat income tax. Rumors of this have been circulating for a few days. Higher taxes ...

The incommensurable cost of COVID-19

CHILE · Report · 23 Jun 2020

COVID-19 caused a historic drop in the March Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC). The 12-month variation was -14.1%, below the consensus projection of -11%. April’s IMACEC is the worst in the history of the series. Retail sales took a historic hit in April, while the drop in industrial pr...

China virus check - week ending June 22

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 23 Jun 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows a general improvement in trends: 1) Coal consumption in the power industry flattened out while operations for iron ore blast furnaces were unchanged. 2) Traffic congestion was surprisingly weak. This could signal intra-city problems relati...

The Ecuadorian economy opens to yellow light from red

ECUADOR · Report · 23 Jun 2020 · 2 responses

Ecuador started its lockdown in mid-March when the situation of Covid-19 in Guayaquil was catastrophic. Most cities have been closed for more than 70 days and some for more than 80 days – which has helped to control the pandemic but has taken a large toll on the economy. Official information s...

OMAN: Surprise surplus in Jan-Apr, but don’t get too excited yet

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Jun 2020

Official statistics show a fiscal surplus of 1.5% of GDP in Jan-Apr 2020. However, this is misleading given one-off transfers and temporary spending cuts. The underlying fiscal balance is more likely a deficit of at least 6% of GDP. Even so, there are encouraging signs of spending cuts in some ar...

PGR identifies transfers to finance anti-democratic demonstrations; Flávio Bolsonaro tries to minimize wear

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jun 2020

Federal deputies Guiga Peixoto (PSL-SP), Aline Sleutjes (PSL-PR), General Girão (PSL-RN) and Bia Kicis (PSL-DF) used funds from the parliamentary quota to finance anti-democratic acts. The transfers, totaling R$30 thousand, were identified by the Prosecutor-General´s Office (PGR). The funds were ...

Politics: Complicated path to an effective opposition bloc

MEXICO · Report · 22 Jun 2020

For all practical effects the opening salvo in the electoral competition that will conclude with voters going to the polls on June 6, 2021, has already been fired as President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has launched a strategy to reposition his image and policies. He has spent the last two weeks...