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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Amazon ordeal and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2019

​The Amazon remains on the political agenda. President Jair Bolsonaro takes part in a meeting in Colombia with countries of the Amazon Region. Thursday is the deadline for Bolsonaro to sanction the bill on Abuse of Authority. The Senate CCJ votes the Pension Reform report. Senate may vote tran...

China and Russia proximity and regional pre-eminence via the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2019

Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has promoted the creation of a series of regional international intergovernmental organizations to keep as many former Soviet Republics as possible close to Moscow. The CIS, the Eurasian Economic Union or the CSTO are among the best known examples of thi...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Sep 2019

The “Bolsonaro style” of governing has been clearly revealed to the world by the fires that are multiplying in the Amazon: he started by confronting and accusing his critics of responsibility, but when faced by threats of commercial retaliation he did what he should have done from the outset, ord...

Colombian guerrillas add pressure to critical Venezuela talks
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 02 Sep 2019

The resurgence of the Colombian guerrilla announced on Thursday 29 August by two of its former leaders, Iván Márquez and Jesús Santrich, is raising tensions in Venezuela as well as Colombia. Márquez and Santrich lead a group of Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents who, in numb...

Consumer saves the quarter, relatively speaking
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Sep 2019

The Turkish economy contracted by 1.5%, y/y, in the second quarter of the year (1.4%, WDA), which was less steep than both the consensus and our forecast had it. As a corollary, quarterly (or sequential) growth, at 1.2%, was also markedly better than our forecast (Graph 1). The key driver of our ...

Widodo seems serious about moving the capital
INDONESIA · Report · 02 Sep 2019

The issue of moving the capital city out of Java has been alive for more than half a century, since Indonesia’s first president, Ir. Soekarno, promoted an idea of moving the capital to Palangkaraya, the capital of Central Kalimantan province on Borneo. So when President Joko Widodo raised the sam...

GDP in the Second Quarter of 2019
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Sep 2019

GDP grew by 0.4% (annualized rate of 1.8%) in the second quarter, reversing the contraction of 0.1% in the first quarter. The rise was higher than indicated by the behavior of the IBC-Br, and greater than the median projections reported by Bloomberg. The intensity and composition of this growth d...

Uribe vs. the Supreme Court, FARC 2.0 & growth
COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Sep 2019

At the Supreme Court a case against ex-president Álvaro Uribe for witness tampering is filled with intrigue, secret tapes, betrayal and revanche. To add insult to injury, the Supreme Court was found to have wiretapped Uribe. This is likely to be a political trial, in which whatever the Supreme Co...

BoI shifts to a more dovish forward guidance
ISRAEL · Report · 02 Sep 2019

Rates remained on hold last week, but with the MPC shifting to a more dovish forward guidance. We still do not expect further monetary loosening as long as growth remains fairly robust. The main private consumption indicators are pointing to steady household demand in early Q319. Mortgage demand...

Russia invites Iran to use Crimean port facilities
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Sep 2019

On September 2 Moscow announced that it is inviting Iran to use ports in the disputed Crimean Peninsula. Iran is an OPEC member but this has not helped much in maintaining access to oil markets. Iranian crude oil exports have fallen by 80% due to US sanctions. However, oil product exports have no...

OMAN: ​Fiscal deep dive 2: Governance vacuum threatens fiscal reforms
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 01 Sep 2019 · 1 response

With the exception of VAT, most of the easy fiscal adjustment has already happened. Further significant and painful reforms are unlikely to be implemented due to the current absence of strong leadership. Alternatives to reform are limited, asset sales are unsustainable and regional support has be...

Gulf weekly: Rouhani-Trump could meet, Abu Dhabi may issue and Aramco looks to Tokyo
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Sep 2019

It was another busy week politically in the region, with a further uptick in tensions in Lebanon and Yemen (not to mention Palestine, in the run-up to Israeli elections and the Kushner peace plan), but also unexpected openness to a possible US-Iran detente (we're skeptics). At a time when regiona...

The month of Syria
TURKEY · Report · 01 Sep 2019

Ankara is in trouble in Syria once again. This time it is different, because Erdogan can get along neither with Putin, nor the US (ex-Trump). Bad-case scenarios such as sanctions, clashes with Kurds and Assad’s Army in Idlib dominate our crystal ball. At home, Erdogan is feeling the pressure f...

Tax break for Russian LNG company
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Sep 2019

On August 30 it was announced that Novatek (Russia's second biggest LNG extractor) has been granted a USD 597 million tax break. This is to incentivize building a part in the Arctic nar Gydan. Putin supports this effort. He sees the Arctic as the key region for economic growth. This port will als...

The National Treasury proposes selling Eskom’s coal powered plants to reduce debt
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 30 Aug 2019

The Finance Minister, Tito Mboweni, has in the past remained quite vocal about the fiscal stress the country’s State-Owned Entities (SOEs) have placed on the economy, especially Eskom. The embattled power utility has not only been struggling to keep lights on, but has also been unable to meet its...

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