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Some polls start to show Macri losing the presidential election
ARGENTINA · Report · 16 Apr 2019

In our recent report “Struggling with Stagflation” we pointed out that the current administration is facing the difficult political challenge of overcoming a severe recession, with little time for the economy to bounce before the elections - or put differently, with only a short time for the vote...

Understanding Zelenskiy
UKRAINE · Report · 16 Apr 2019 · 1 response

Recent polls show that comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy is very likely to beat President Petro Poroshenko in the second round of voting on April 21st, and by an impressive margin. Evidently only a miracle can save incumbent from defeat. So Zelenskiy will probably become Ukraine’s sixth president. Is ...

Without a governing coalition, the agenda is compromised and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Apr 2019

​Jair Bolsonaro will meet with ministers and Petrobras representatives to discuss the company’s pricing policy. On Tuesday, April 16, the Lower House CCJ may vote on report by Representative Marcelo Freitas (PSL-MG) on the Pension Reform proposal. Members of the Centrão were pressuring for a vote...

Monetary Policy: Smooth sailing ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Apr 2019

Despite the general acknowledgment that the recent inflation elevation is all due to passing shocks, the question has arisen: Will these shocks be incorporated into inflation expectations? Shocks that are absorbed into expectations become inflation expressions, but for this outcome the economic r...

Economics: Squaring the circle of Policy Guidelines
MEXICO · Report · 15 Apr 2019

The General Economic Policy Preliminary Guidelines for 2020 that the Ministry of Finance released at the beginning of April contain what we regard as generally realistic macroeconomic framework projections both for the remainder of 2019 and full-year 2020. The ministry lowered its estimate of ave...

Politics: Morena's challenges to the Judiciary
MEXICO · Report · 15 Apr 2019

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his party have been publicly critical of the judicial branch, even long before coming to power, including a series of public skirmishes over the salaries member of the judiciary are paid. Last week the government may have opened up another front in its as...

Finally, government has a budget
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 Apr 2019

Hours after we wrote our last brief, reports say that the President has finally ratified the 2019 General Appropriations Act. He did what many thought was the appropriate thing to do, i.e., vetoed items that were not part of government's priorities. The vetoed programs/projects, reportedly public...

Shekel appreciation likely to postpone tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 15 Apr 2019

The shekel has appreciated by 4.8% YTD (against the basket), supportive of rate stability. Israeli institutions sold nearly 3bn USD in January-February, reversing their previous buying trend. Shekel appreciation and a rather dovish BoI Governor are likely to keep rates unchanged this year. Implic...

Still no budget for 2019
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 Apr 2019

The suspense continues. After much wrangling in congress that resulted in the Senate transmitting the enrolled bill with “strong reservations” to Malacanang only in late March, the proposed 2019 budget remains unsigned to date. At this point, the choices before President Rodrigo Duterte are to: (...

At the shores of Rubicon
TURKEY · Report · 14 Apr 2019

It will take a week or two to find out who the victor is in Istanbul’s hotly-contested and contentious mayoral race, as AKP devised a convoluted appeals scheme. At the end, it comes down to what President Erdogan truly wants and how much independence the supreme electoral body, the High Election ...

Russian Government plan to increase non-fuel exports
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Apr 2019

Finance Minister Siluanov visited the Samsung Electronics Plant in Kaluga Region on April 12. His mission was to assess how the national project for the development of exports is progressing. This plan excludes hydrocarbons since Russia has no difficulty selling those. He was there with bureaucra...

Struggling with stagflation
ARGENTINA · Report · 12 Apr 2019

Macri´s political outlook into the October elections continues to face the challenge of overcoming adverse economic indicators. This is taking place despite the financial support of the IMF, whose USD 10.8bn tranche reached the BCRA reserves this week. The combination of very high inflation and a...

The financialization of the Chinese economy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Apr 2019

The U.S. financial crisis was caused by the excessive “financialization” of the economy. Loans flowing to the residential property market were expanded into derivative products on Wall Street, sold to investors as securities, and funded primarily through short-term sources. The result was a matur...

Overthrow of Sudanese President is bad news for Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Apr 2019

On April 11 the Sudanese Army ousted President Omar Bashir. This military coup is unwelcome news in Moscow because Russia had a good relationship with Bashir. Bashir was one of the few Arab leaders never to have withdrawn recognition from the Assad Government in Syria. He even visited Syria last ...

Navigating amid icebergs
PERU · Forecast · 11 Apr 2019

We expect more modest growth in Q1, after a robust Q4 2018. Nor does Q2 look very promising, especially should the blockade of the road impeding Las Bambas mega copper mine operations persist. Las Bambas represents 20% of Peruvian copper production, and its paralysis could affect 1% of monthly GD...

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