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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Medina’s re-election push loses steam
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 02 May 2019

President Danilo Medina’s re-election prospects took a dramatic turn for the worse in April, dimming so significantly that his candidacy now looks unlikely to regain momentum. Unless he does the improbable (by seeking a constitutional reform against all odds, thereby risking his PLD party’s unity...

The President ups the game in “stamping out corruption"
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 02 May 2019

​After being elected as the new leader of South Africa’s governing party ANC (December 21, 2017) and being sworn in as the fifth democratic President of the nation (February 15, 2018), Cyril Ramaphosa pledged to fight corruption and support economic revival. Indeed, this has been his aim since th...

Trump visit and Bahceli outburst
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 May 2019

Turkish politics is getting more complicated by the minute, which is reducing visibility and raising risk premiums. To say the last thing first, regardless of the High Election Council(HEC) ruling on Istanbul elections, I expect this state of affairs to continue through summer months. Apropos Ist...

Oil and gas prices set for possible volatility
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 May 2019

At the Belt and Road Forum it was announced that 30% of Novatek's Arctic LNG will go to Total, a CNPC subsidiary and CNOCC. These three companies will get 10% apiece. Total's share was known before the forum. Novatek's Arctic LNG will therefore be mostly Russian owned. Saudi Aramco had hoped to b...

​Indonesia: Waiting for the final count
INDONESIA · Report · 01 May 2019

Immediately after the people cast their votes on April 17, 2019, there was a short period of uncertainty, after one presidential candidate claimed his victory several times in the race for the presidency. Acting as a real statesman, President Jokowi gave a short speech, in which in general he wel...

Industrial output rebounds
CHINA · Report · 30 Apr 2019

The Chinese economy began to rebound in Q1, with GDP up 6.4% y/y, flat on Q4 2018. Industrial output was up 6.5% y/y, up 0.8 pps from Q4. Then in March, GDP rose a powerful 8.5% y/y, up 1.4 pps from Q4, to its fastest growth rate since August 2014. Investment, up 6.3% y/y, showed no clear tre...

The MNB will start to buy corporate bonds in July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Apr 2019

Pretty much as we predicted yesterday (and others slightly earlier), the Monetary Council left all MNB interest rates untouched today, in addition to saying nothing new about the prospective use of FX swaps to tighten liquidity. Moreover, they made absolutely no mentioning of any need to tighten ...

CBRT: Evasive, unconvincing
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Apr 2019 · 1 response

The CBRT released the year's second Inflation Report today. The 2019 year-end CPI-inflation forecast was kept at 14.6% (midpoint of 12.1%-17.1% band), so was the 2020 year-end forecast -- at 8.2% (midpoint of 5.1%-11.3% band). As usual, the Bank sees inflation slowing to the official target of 5%...

Russian companies raising wages
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Apr 2019

Korn Ferry has shown that most Russian firms plan to increase wages in 2019. The working population is falling therefore employers are obliged to bid for workers. Topline inflation is currently 5.2% and wages hikes are forecast to average 4.5%.In the tech sector labor is a seller's market not a b...

Economics: April data confirms a slowing trend
MEXICO · Report · 29 Apr 2019

With the coincident index accelerating its downtrend of the past nine months and the leading indicator also slipping lower, numerous multilateral international institutions and analysts have continued to scale back their estimates of Mexican GDP growth, as have domestic authorities including Banc...

Politics: Missteps and looming crises
MEXICO · Report · 29 Apr 2019

As President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is faced by the usual dynamics of any new administration – confronted with a situation considerably more complicated than the new head of state and other incoming officials had anticipated, the commission by new officials of numerous unforced errors, and s...

Pension reform calculations and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Apr 2019

A week of reduced legislative activity due to the Wednesday holiday (Labor Day). Labor unions organize demonstrations throughout the country against Pension Reform. President Bolsonaro may sign provisional measures to stimulate economy. A reduction of the import tax for capital goods may be annou...

Arko poll reflects improved Executive-Legislative relationship
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Apr 2019 · 1 response

The relationship between the Executive and Legislative branches has improved. This is the conclusion drawn from an Arko Advice poll conducted among 109 federal representatives on April 23-25. Positive evaluations of the government increased from 28.43% to 38.53% in April, while negative evaluati...

Government tries to stabilize the exchange rate as expectations worsen
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 29 Apr 2019 · 1 response

During the first quarter of 2019, the Argentine economy performed worse than expected by the government, by the IMF and by most private forecasters. Inflation was much higher than anticipated. The exchange rate, in pesos per dollar, began depreciating rapidly in March towards the upper limit o...

The Real: Excessive fluctuation? Excessive depreciation?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Apr 2019 · 1 response

Last week there was a particular strengthening of the dollar against other currencies. The dollar appreciation combined with the domestic risk due to the fiscal and political uncertainties hastened the depreciation of the Brazilian real, which exceeded the level of R$4.00/US$, prompting clamor fo...

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