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South African 2019 Elections Vote Counting Continues: Gains , Pains and the Rule of Numbers
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 10 May 2019

With over 70% of South Africa's 23000 voting stations counted and tallied, gradually a picture is emerging, much in line with expectations, and with some variations. At the national level, the ANC is leading with a 57% voter support, DA at around 22% and the EFF at circa 10%. Curiously, all the p...

Internal growth is strengthening
CHINA · Forecast · 09 May 2019

The Chinese economy began showing a recovery pattern in Q1. GDP rose 6.4% y/y, though it was flat on Q4 2018. Industrial output was up 6.5% y/y, and up 0.8 pps from Q4. In March in particular, GDP rose 8.5% y/y, and up 1.4 pps from Q4 -- a powerful rebound, and its fastest growth rate since Augus...

Inflation rose further, core inflation down on a base effect in April
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 May 2019

Well, the analyst consensus proved to be a bit too pessimistic, whereas we were a bit too optimistic about April's CPI-inflation data, as it turned out this morning. However, the crucial point is that essentially everyone was right to expect rising inflation for the month.Specifically, the headli...

Monetary Board cuts policy rates
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 May 2019

With 1Q19 GDP falling below the low end of government’s growth target, the Monetary Board decided today to cut its set of policy rates by 25bp, setting the overnight reverse repurchase rate at 4.5%. The decision is based on a more benign inflation outlook, with the BSP forecasting inflation to av...

5.6% growth not unexpected (by us)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 May 2019

As we had feared, GDP growth fell to 5.6% in 1Q19, below even the low end of government’s downscaled 6-7% target for the year and much lower than the 6.1% median analyst forecast. Officials were quick to point the finger at the delayed passage of government’s 2019 budget, which capped the growth ...

South Africa 2019 Elections: Voting Done yesterday, Today is all about Counting and the Game of Numbers
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 09 May 2019

South Africa's 6th democratic national elections went relatively smoothly yesterday. Months and months of tense, vigorous and emotional electioneering ended yesterday with 24.75 million eligible voters registered, 9.2 million eligible voters who did not register, 48 political parties battled for ...

Financial stress – feedback loops
INDIA · Report · 08 May 2019

Ordinarily, economic systems find equilibrium. There is a shock, the problem heals as gaps between supply and demand are closed, and the system finds a new equilibrium. However, when positive feedback loops are present, such benign outcomes may not arise. A system can rapidly move away from th...

Analysts expect CPI-inflation yet higher in April
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 May 2019

The April CPI-inflation data is due at 9am BUD time tomorrow. Analysts polled by Portfolio.hu expect the headline rate at 4% yoy, rising further from the 3.7% yoy measured for March.We feel this forecast is a little bit exaggerated in the negative direction. We expect +4.5% mom for fuel prices, o...

Morgan Stanley pulling out of Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 May 2019

Morgan Stanley has announced that it is withdrawing from Russia due to sanctions. It has been in Russia since 1994. Its banking, brokerage and depositary licenses will be handed over. These business units will then be liquidated. This will be completed in the first quarter of 2020. Morgan Stanley...

De-dollarization in Russia is making little progress
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 May 2019

At the start of May the Bank of Russia published a report on the currencies used in international trade by Russia. It demonstrated that commerce between Russia and China is using EUR as well as USD and RMB. There was a 23.5% increase in the use of EUR to pay for Russian goods sold to China in the...

April inflation lower at 3%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 07 May 2019 · 1 response

Inflation continued to decelerate to 3% in April, slower than the 3.3% print in March 2018 and below the 3.1% expected by analysts. Although the headline rate fell, month-on-month inflation increased to 0.3% from nil in March, traced mainly to oil-related fuel and transport costs. In comparison, ...

The BOP deteriorated in early 2019
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 May 2019

On April 30, the Monetary Council's communiqué specifically said on the balance of payments: 'In February 2019, the current account balance improved, to which both the stable services balance and the renewed rise of the goods balance contributed.'This, somewhat loosely worded, brief statement was...

​Istanbul elections- Take 2
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 May 2019 · 2 responses

High Election Council (HEC) annulled Istanbul mayoral vote by a 7-4 decision, opening the way for re-election on 23 June. Only mayor’s office will be on the ballot, with borough and Istanbul municipal assembly results now finally certified. Mayor-elect (CHP) Ekrem Imamoglu was “defrocked” at once...

SA’s 2019 elections on May 8: Major political parties polished off their final rallies
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 May 2019

South Africa’s top three contending political parties, the African National Congress (ANC), the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the Democratic Alliance (DA) held their final rallies over the past weekend, with the hope of securing more support so as to be crowned as the nation’s governing par...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 May 2019 · 1 response

Following years of fiscal irresponsibility, leading to stagnant economic growth, an adjustment of the public accounts is a necessary condition for the country’s social stability. Faced with the challenge of defending unpopular measures, Bolsonaro has failed and at the same time precociously fritt...

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