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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Eskom disappoints the nation as it implements unexpected load shedding, while the nation waits to learn about its future
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Oct 2019

During his opening address at the Financial Times Africa Summit in London earlier in the week, President Ramaphosa declared that the government would soon give a deliberation on how the ailing power utility’s (Eskom) debt would be dealt with. As such, Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan sp...

The long overdue IRP approved by the Cabinet to be released on October 18 - but will it create certainty in the energy sector?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Oct 2019

Electricity in South Africa (SA) is exclusively provided by the state-owned Eskom, supplying close to 95% of the electricity in the country – which is about 45% of Africa’s total electricity generation. Moreover, SA’s power generation is predominantly dominated by coal as well as nuclear energy (...

Election results will raise political pressure on Fidesz
HUNGARY · Forecast · 17 Oct 2019

In the local government elections on October 13, Fidesz reached an unexpectedly poor result, losing control over Budapest and around half of major cities, while doing very well in rural areas. This will not change the power structure at the national level, as Fidesz continues to have an impressiv...

Constitutional Court scraps the 2018 tax reform, but gives the Government a way out
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 16 Oct 2019

The Constitutional Court scrapped the 2018 Financing Law in its entirety, as far as we know a first in an already long and well-known history of Colombian tax reforms. The Court’s ruling, the result of a 6-3 vote, considered the bill approved by the Senate was not given adequate publicity prior t...

Russia needs more investment
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Oct 2019

October 11 the Finance Minister Anton Siluanov spoke at the Financial University in Moscow. He said more investment is required. Companies have over USD 466 billion in bank accounts. Businesses do not have confidence in the state which is why they do not invest. Siluanov considers growth of 3% as...

Winds of War shift quickly
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Oct 2019

Singer-actor, former heavy weight boxing champ, ex-convict and philosopher Mike Tyson once remarked “Everybody has a game plan going into the ring. After the first punch to the nose, you scrap it and do the best you can”. This is certainly the fate facing Turkey. Nothing has gone according to the...

Low inflation is supportive of lower rates
ISRAEL · Report · 15 Oct 2019

September's CPI came in according to consensus (-0.2% m/m and 0.3% y/y). There were no major surprises in the various CPI items. Housing (rental) prices (24.5% of the basket) moderated to 1.8% y/y from 2.2% in August. This is significant but this item often fluctuates greatly on a monthly level a...

China: Notes from Washington/Trade War
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Oct 2019

I just returned from a three-day trip to Washington DC meeting local corporates, the Mansfield Foundation, CSIS, the State Department, and officials at the White House. Overall, the tone in Washington is decidedly negative. There is a growing consensus that China is rising, the trade war is hurti...

Putin in Saudi Arabia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Oct 2019

On October 14 President Putin flew to Saudi Arabia. This is his first visit to the kingdom since 2006. Russia's energy minister Alexander Novak and the head of the sovereign wealth fund accompanied the president. Putin met with 300 business leaders from both countries. Various agreements were sig...

Brazilian politics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Oct 2019

Continued repercussions of the disagreements between Bolsonaro and the PSL. The Senate votes on the distribution of resources from the Transfer of Rights among states and municipalities. As for pension reform, the deadline for discussion before the second round, scheduled for the 22nd, ends this ...

Economics: Potential impact of strong minimum wage hikes
MEXICO · Report · 14 Oct 2019

At a time when the economy seems to be heading for a further slow down, the Government appears focused on trying to significantly expand minimum wages, which has seen their buying power eroded over the years by as much as 70%. Despite concerns as to how such increases might impact labor market co...

Economic activity: Still no signs of acceleration
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Oct 2019

Absent of any fiscal impulse (on the contrary, the ongoing fiscal consolidation is having a contractionary effect); and global growth still decelerating; and uncertainties (domestic and international) inhibiting investments, the only source of aggregate demand impulse is expansion of household co...

Politics: Rule of law increasingly in doubt
MEXICO · Report · 14 Oct 2019

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador recently held a new round of meetings with most of the main business chambers, councils and confederations clearly aimed at giving the impression that, in AMLO’s words, relations between his government and the private sector “could not be better.” But the he...

Government Capitulates and Eliminates Decree 883
ECUADOR · In Brief · 13 Oct 2019

After 12 days of violent confrontations, riots and several casualties, president Moreno held a negotiation meeting with CONAIE (Confederation of Indian Nationalities) in order to seek a solution to --what was already evident --an almost insoluble problem. The meeting counted with the mediation of...

Gulf weekly: Turkey invades Syria, Aramco IPO on track
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Oct 2019

​The political focus briefly shifted away from tensions with Iran as Turkey invaded Syria to combat Kurds and create a zone to resettle (mainly Arab) Syrian refugees. The Gulf states largely condemned the assault, in rare agreement with Iran. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s president is attempting mediatio...

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