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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The new government’s priorities are to raise domestic demand and real wages; lowering inflation isn’t an immediate concern
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 17 Dec 2019

Since ex-president Mauricio Macri lost his party’s presidential primary in August, inflation has accelerated, recession has deepened, fears of debt default have obscured the financial scenario and the IMF program has been put on hold. GDP has contracted 2.5% in 2019, and real wages have fallen 10...

Chile’s awakening
CHILE · Report · 17 Dec 2019 · 1 response

The economic effects of the protests that began on October 18th have been devastating. The social situation in Chile makes any projection highly uncertain. The Imacec in October was as unfavorable as it was surprising. Considering that the demonstrations affected only 12 days of the month, ou...

Russian tech company proactive in asserting rights
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Dec 2019

Rambler, a Russian internet company, is standing up against US rivals. On December 12 police searched the offices of Nginx which is a major web server. Rambler said that Nginx was guilty of stealing intellectual property. Igor Syosev co-founded Nginx but used to work for Rambler. Rambler alleges ...

Two 2020 pivot points
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Dec 2019

As 2019 comes to a draw, short-term regime changes look distant. The opposition is in disarray; Maduro has the upper hand. We see three political scenarios for 2020–2021. They pivot on assumptions as to how two key events will play out next year: the appointment of a new National Electoral Co...

Manila’s water problems (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Dec 2019

The fortunes of Metro Manila’s water concessionaires have taken a turn for the worse since they drew the President’s ire two weeks ago. First, in an attempt to defuse his anger, the water firms announced that they are waiving the combined P10.8 billion (about $212 million) awarded to them by the ...

Politics: AMLO's approval sees real slippage
MEXICO · Report · 16 Dec 2019

Since he rode a wave of deep popular discontent with politics as usual, conspicuous corruption, deepening social inequality and a sluggish economy to victory in 2018, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has enjoyed a level of popularity unprecedented in recent history. That support has remained...

Economics: Tourism adds to its economic impact
MEXICO · Report · 16 Dec 2019

At a time when Mexico can do with additional sources of foreign currency inflows, the latest tourism data offers some encouraging news, although it is hard to get that impression at first glance. During the first ten months of 2019 the number of international visitors slipped 1.5% below levels o...

The rise of Rodrigo Maia and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Dec 2019

The week begins with the threat of a truckers’ strike. This is the final week of legislative activity for the year: after the vote on the 2020 Budget, scheduled for Tuesday, Congress enters its end-of-year recess, with activity resuming on February 2. The Lower House will try to conclude the vote...

Despite the low CPI print, we do not expect a rate cut
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Dec 2019

Although inflation in November surprised on the downside, reaching -0.4% m/m and 0.3% y/y, a rate cut is far from certain. The CA surplus is likely to surpass 4% GDP this year and improve further in 2020. Israeli savings institutions sold FX of 1.2bn USD (net) in October and 5bn YTD, supporting s...

China’s schizophrenic stimulus policy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 Dec 2019

Recent negative economic data is forcing Beijing to devise creative responses. The responses show a political compromise between the “spenders” (the National Development and Reform Commission, the local provincial governments, and the State Council) against the “savers,” which would include the P...

Despite low CPI print, a rate cut is far from certain
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Dec 2019

November's CPI surprises on the low side Inflation in November reached -0.4% m/m (0.3% y/y), lower than our forecast of -0.3% m/m and market expectations of -0.2% to -0.3%. Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) remained stable at 0.5% y/y similar to last month, but clearly t...

​Gulf weekly: Aramco hits $2trn, Saudi budget unveiled & Qatar dispute thaws
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Dec 2019

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Aramco nominally achieved MBS’s magical $2trn valuation on its second day trading. * The Saudi 2020 budget envisages the deficit rising to 6.4% of ...

Russia cuts key rate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2019

On December 13 the Russian Central Bank announced that the key rate would be reduced to 6.25%. There have been five cuts in a row. The Governor of the Bank Elvira Nabiullina said that she might not cut the rate next time because there is a limit to how low it is wise to go. The RUB rose by 1% whe...

Future trends, past scribblings
TURKEY · Report · 13 Dec 2019

In this last full report of the year, we have opted for a novel format of sorts. The politics author, being the visionary of the Global Source Partners Turkey team, looks ahead and identifies 11 trends that will change the face of Turkey in the next 11 years. The econ author being the boring, cha...

Russia in Africa: strategic steps
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2019

The Russian Government and Russian state companies are becoming ever more eager to expand their presence in Africa. Arms deals, energy contracts, political expertise and military assistance are all sought by several African countries. What does Russia have to offer these African states? Russia...

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