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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Public applauds crackdown on the political class
PERU · Report · 17 May 2019

All four Peruvian ex-presidents since 2001, a Lima ex-mayor and several regional governors are being investigated in relation to contributions from Brazilian construction firms. Prosecutors have secured information from such firms under arrangements providing immunity to their officials in return...

Poll results: Reelection is highly unpopular but Medina remains popular
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 17 May 2019

At the beginning of May, the results of the first two well-known political surveys were published: Mark Penn and Gallup-Hoy. The most outstanding are the following: 1) An amendment of the Constitution to allow President Medina to run for a third term is rejected by a solid majority (60% -70%). 2)...

South Africa’s list of MPs causes some disgruntlement while the nation awaits the appointment of President Ramaphosa’s new cabinet
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 May 2019

Now that the general elections have come and gone, the focus in South Africa has shifted back to the African National Congress (ANC) and the integrity of its members, particularly those that will be representing the party in parliament. President Cyril Ramaphosa has based his two campaigns – the ...

The depression after the recession
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 May 2019

The dating of economic cycles in Brazil is carried out by the Committee for Dating Economic Cycles (CODACE), which has pinned down the start and finish of all cycles since 1980. It is customary to measure the magnitude of recessions by the distance between the peak and valley in the phase of fall...

To raise or not to raise the VAT?
ECUADOR · Report · 16 May 2019

Against all odds, Alianza Pais captured the presidency of the National Assembly with 78 votes – 40 from Alianza Pais, 18 from CREO and the remaining from Integracion Nacional in exchange for two vice-presidencies and at least two commissions that are under negotiation as of this writing. Cesar...

US-Iran tensions lead to good oil and currency news for Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 May 2019

The United States accused Iran of trying to sink Saudi oil tankers on May 13. Warlike statements from Washington have led to a rise in oil prices and the RUB.The oil tankers were damaged in the Strait of Hormuz in between Iran and the UAE. The US believes that either the Iranians did it or Iran's...

Global bonds allocation in sight
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 16 May 2019

As we noted in our last monthly report, the Ministry of Finance is preparing to issue and allocate global bonds in the international market. The information was provided yesterday by Minister Donald Guerrero, who also indicated that the unusual delay in the placement of the 2019 bonds has been du...

2019 Outlook: Suppose Maduro survives
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 16 May 2019

With the Maduro regime so shaky, to anchor and focus our forecast, we assume regime survival through 2019 and project this year alone. In our next forecast report, we’ll present 2020-2021 forecasts under alternative regime scenarios. The Maduro regime wants to revive private industry and attac...

Deposit reserve requirement ratio cut
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 May 2019

The BSP announced today a staggered reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) on bank deposits as follows: 1ppt effective on May 31, 0.5ppt on June 28, and 0.5 effective July 26. These will bring the RRR for commercial banks, currently at 18%, to 16% by the end of July. A 1ppt cut is estim...

What slowdown? The economy is overheating
HUNGARY · Report · 15 May 2019

GDP growth accelerated to a new high in Q1 2019, in the face of the weak Eurozone economy. This looks like a regional phenomenon typical of Central and Eastern Europe: Poland, Romania and Hungary all reported GDP growth around 5% in the first quarter of this year. A relocation of output from West...

Gates of the unknown open wide
UKRAINE · Report · 15 May 2019

Three weeks have passed since the name of the sixth president of Ukraine was confirmed. But neither key appointments nor the first steps of the new administration have been announced. President-elect Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s advisors are busily making comments, but none of these speakers have offici...

Inflation heads back to 50% m-o-m and more
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 May 2019

We revised down our April inflation estimate to 35 percent from 45 percent in our previous report. The price of the dollar in the parallel market rose by 21 percent, lower than our expected 42 percent, and consumption was weaker than expected for longer than expected. Accumulated inflation for Ja...

Election results (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 May 2019

A reader asked us what are the implications of Monday’s election results which we outlined yesterday. Offhand, we say that they clearly give President Duterte greater control of the legislative agenda moving forward. The hope is that he will use his political capital to more forcefully back up Fi...

ANC announces premier candidates for provinces it will govern
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 14 May 2019

Following its elections win last week, the African National Congress (ANC) party convened a special national executive committee meeting on Monday, May 13, 2019, at which it presented seven of its eight premier candidates for provinces in which it received the majority vote. The premier for one o...

Weak business cycle conditions in the Indian economy
INDIA · In Brief · 14 May 2019

For a few years, there has been a tension between two views of the Indian economy. One view was grounded in the GDP data, and saw high GDP growth rates. Another view was grounded in the firm data, and saw weak performance of firms. Our work on building a `coincident indicator' is a valuable path ...

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