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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

‘Steinmeier formula’ officially accepted: first reaction is furious
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Oct 2019

On October 1, President Zelenskiy at a press-briefing informed that the ‘Steinmeier formula’ for making peace in the east was officially accepted. The formula presumes special status for occupied territories of Eastern Donbas. The special status should be granted through a change of the Constitut...

Excellent fiscal data, yet further BOP deterioration reported for H1 2019
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Oct 2019

Both the ESA2010 (accrual terms) general government balance and sectorial financial data for Q2 have been released today. Following indications by partial figures, which were available earlier, that the fiscal balance must have improved quite a lot, this new set of comprehensive data marks a 1.3%...

The usefulness of the rule
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Oct 2019

The 2011 fiscal rule gave the central government’s fiscal policy a much-needed countercyclical orientation, as it focuses on differentiating structural from temporary revenues and spending. A critical anchor for policy discussions, it makes a committee of external advisors (the CCRF) responsible ...

The ANC special National Executive Committee meeting concludes ‒ without decisions on SA’s economic woes
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 01 Oct 2019

Over the past weekend, the African National Congress (ANC) held its National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting, deliberating over Finance Minister’s recently released recovery plan (which has caused divisions in the party), with discussions about the ailing economy at the top of the agenda. Indee...

​Political chaos
PERU · In Brief · 30 Sep 2019

This afternoon President Martín Vizcarra announced the dissolution of Congress.The immediate cause behind the president’s decision lies in his interpretation of today´s events in Congress. After the Constitution Committee decided to reject his proposal for early general elections last Friday, the...

SAUDI: Fitch downgrades, S&P affirms, GDP growth slows
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Sep 2019

Fitch downgraded Saudi Arabia to A today, S&P affirmed it at A- on Friday. Moody’s has a review scheduled for 25th October. Even if Moody’s also downgrades, this is unlikely to delay an expected $10-20bn issuance in Q4, as the low global yield environment more than offsets the impact on pricing o...

Senate expected to vote on the Pension Reform in the first round and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Sep 2019

The Senate votes on the first round of Pension Reform on Tuesday, October 1. According to Min. Paulo Guedes, a Tax Reform proposal should be sent to Congress this week. In the STF, expectations continue to surround the court’s decision on plea bargain deals. Congress analyzes presidential vetoes ...

US imposes sanctions on Putin confidante
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Sep 2019

On September 30 the United States introduced sanctions on the Internet Research Agency (IRA). The IRA is based in St Petersburg, Russia and is accused by the US of being a troll farm that interfered in the 2016 presidential election. Washington believes that a confidante of Putin named Yevgeny Pr...

Economics: The economy continues to skirt recession
MEXICO · Report · 30 Sep 2019

Economic news pointed largely in the same direction in September as it has for most of the year: downward. So much so that the threat of a recession continues to loom, although a chance remains that the Mexican economy can avert a technical one if it can skirt it before next year. The same can...

NEP: Some quick reactions
TURKEY · Report · 30 Sep 2019

Well, I am not sure about six, but there are at least two “impossible things” to take note of in today’s New Economy Program (NEP), presented by Minister Berat Albayrak.

The Labor market
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Sep 2019

In our weekly report of September 16th (“The Industry’s Poor Performance and Hope in Consumption”), we showed that industry will continue bearing the brunt of the global slowdown, and that recovery of domestic activity will be increasingly dependent on household consumption, which has been expand...

Politics: Education counter-reform has arrived
MEXICO · Report · 30 Sep 2019

Last week Congress approved an administration proposal to roll back the essential aspects of the 2013 reform that were designed to free the public education system of decades of corporatist political rule in which the teachers' union had come to exert control over most of the system. The core ele...

What’s going on in the Chinese balance of payments?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 30 Sep 2019 · 5 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: * For the first half of 2019 “Errors and omissions”, in the balance of payment data, are higher than they have ever been in China: USD 131 billion. This is equal to nearly two-thirds of the recorded trade surplus, and is nearly 50 percent higher than...

El SALVADOR: Improvement likely in 2020
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Sep 2019

El Salvador has this year been suffering the combined effects of the political campaign that put President Nayib Bukele in office starting June 1, 2019, and from adverse international economic conditions, with worsening perspectives for 2020. Uncertainty and poor expectations for consumers and in...

Danylyuk has resigned
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Sep 2019

On Friday, Sept 27, Alex Danylyuk, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security Council wrote on his Facebook page that he confirms his resignation. Press-secretary of Volodymyr Zelenskiy wrote on her page that Danylyuk has submitted a request for resignation before President departed to the US. Toda...

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