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Pension Reform progress and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 May 2019

Governors will be in Brasilia this week discussing, among other points, the fate of the states and municipalities in the Pension Reform proposal. The special congressional committee charged with analyzing the proposal will begin to function this week. In the economy, we highlight the Central Bank...

Huawei rumored to be getting contract with Russian telecom firm
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 May 2019

Chinese technology giant Huawei might be awarded a contract worth USD 384 million. This would involve providing equipment for telecommunications firm MTS. MTS needs this contract because the Yarovaya Law requires telecoms companies to gather data. Surprisingly this news did not come at the Belt a...

Economics: What to expect from Labor Reform
MEXICO · Report · 06 May 2019

The Senate passed the administration’s labor reform proposal this past week, and the changes to the country’s labor laws and the conciliation and arbitration system are significant, but doubts abound as to whether efforts aimed at eliminating past forms of abuse of workers’ rights might open the ...

Politics: AMLO’s poor legislative record
MEXICO · Report · 06 May 2019

The recently concluded ordinary session of Congress, the first full one on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's watch, serves as a good barometer of the legislative effectiveness and political capacity of the new governing coalition. Given that the Morena-led coalition has effectively built a ...

China’s risky insurance investments
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 06 May 2019

China’s insurance industry has significantly increased its asset base faster than general growth of the economy. However, this growth has come with a cost: an increase in risky investments, and a willingness to increase its investments to support the state goals of infrastructure investment and p...

GDP growth expected to reach a robust 5% saar in Q1 2019
ISRAEL · Report · 06 May 2019

Economic data released last week supports our assessment of robust growth in Q1 2019, likely to reach 5% saar. Exports of both merchandise and services were up sharply in Q1, employment growth was strong and new vehicle purchases surged before higher taxation. Robust growth strengthens our view t...

Caution over the contradictory signs from the labor market
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 May 2019

During the entire phase of the weak cyclical recovery, job creation has been disappointing. However, the data from the Continuous PNAD announced last week presented a ray of hope: if employment growth is maintained until de end of the year at the pace of the first quarter, the unemployment rate w...

Severgroup buys supermarket chain in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 May 2019

Severgroup purchased 41.9% of the supermarket chain Lenta. Lenta has reported this to the London Stock Exchange. Severgroup is expected to make a binding offer to minority shareholders. Some of these shareholders wanted a rival bid from Magnit to be given more serious consideration. Magnit is ano...

Cortizo wins by a small margin. Roux challenges the result. PRD is the strongest party in the Legislative Assembly.
PANAMA · In Brief · 06 May 2019

Laurentino “Nito” Cortizo won the Presidential election tonight by a slight margin, so small that the Cambio Democratico Party of Romulo Roux is challenging the results thus prolonging the official recognition of the results. Cortizo’s Partido Revolucionario Democrático, PRD (social-democratic un...

The crisis accelerates
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 May 2019

The April 30 events took everyone by surprise by bringing into the open negotiations underway with members of Maduro's entourage. Soon after Juan Guaidó and Leopoldo López, suddenly freed from house arrest by his Bolivarian Intelligence Service (SEBIN) custodians, appeared at La Carlota Military ...

Istanbul rerun is much more likely now
TURKEY · Report · 05 May 2019

Despite a near-consensus local view on High Election Council (HEC) ruling to annul Istanbul elections, we steadfastly stood by our scenario of President Erdogan conceding it to mayor-elect Mr. Ekrem Imamoglu (CHP), primarily in the absence of his personal involvement in the bitter media battle be...

No rating action, no new report from Moody's yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 May 2019

A certain part, though probably not the majority, of the market may be disappointed by the fact that Moody's did not take any action on their Baa3/Stable sovereign rating for Hungary at their pre-announced revision date yesterday. Moreover, Moody's did not even pick up the issue, missing the oppo...

South Africa’s general elections five days away – here are the latest pollsters results
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 03 May 2019

The South African economy has had difficulty recovering from its lackluster growth for a decade, and leadership (governance) and policies have played a significant role in this. The direction the economy will take from here largely depends on the outcome of the general elections that are less tha...

Duque, the Freshman
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 May 2019

The corruption scandals surrounding Ruta del Sol II have created all sorts of problems for the unrelated fourth generation (4G) program. The most important was the realization that, when nullifying a contract due to a concessionaire’s proven corruption, the rules applicable to companies providing...

Clothing, transportation drive inflation lower
TURKEY · Report · 03 May 2019

In April, consumer prices rose by 1.7%, m/m, notably lower than the market consensus of around 2.3% (and our forecast of just over 2%), taking the 12-month CPI inflation down to 19.5% from 19.7% in March. But domestic-PPI inflation showed a strong monthly increase of 3%, on the back of a weaker l...

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