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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

After Abqaiq: A quick recovery and reasons to de-escalate
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Sep 2019

Aramco says it’s restored Khurais output and about half of Abqaiq, with a full return to normal in two weeks. The oil market seems to believe Aramco, which we think can restore output before fully repairing the damage because the facilities had previously been operating below capacity. Aside from...

​Erdogan issues ultimatum to USA
TURKEY · In Brief · 18 Sep 2019

Coming out of the Astana Summit, which appeared not to yield a break-through on Idlib, Erdogan roared out an ultimatum to USA. He gave USA two weeks to sign under an agreement to erect a safe zone in North-East Syria, where he wants to resettle two million refugees. To cut a long story short, I w...

The former head of Ukrainian National Bank claims she fears assassination
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Sep 2019

The woman who nationalized PrivatBank has had her house in Kyiv burnt down in an arson attack on September 18. The woman is named Valeria Gontareva and she said she believes her house burning down was revenge for the bank's nationalization. Although we note the issue has been heavily politicized ...

Is lending to bankrupt countries really a good idea?
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Sep 2019

There are a number of Middle Eastern states that would struggle to access international bond markets without the backing of the wealthy Gulf states. We analyze how this politics of support is unfolding across the region and examine differing oil price scenarios out to 2030 using our measure of de...

Coalition formation will be challenging
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Sep 2019

According to unofficial partial results of the elections held yesterday, Likud and Blue-White won 32 seats each, the Joint List 12, Shas and Yisrael Beytenu 9 each, UTJ 8, Yamina 7, Labor-Gesher 6 and the Democratic Union 5. According to 91% of the votes, Netanyahu fails to secure the ruling majo...

Continuing stress in the automobile industry
INDIA · Report · 17 Sep 2019

We revisit the comparison we made in our report of August 15, 2019, between the stress of 2008 and 2018 as seen in three components of the automobile industry – HCV's (heavy commercial vehicles), passenger cars and two-wheelers. In all three cases, we work with seasonally adjusted levels, and exp...

Russia investing national welfare fund
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Sep 2019

On September 12 Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced that a decision had been made about the National Welfare Fund (NWF). The NWF is expected to be USD 28.2 billion in 2020. The NWF will be invested in domestic projects such as oil and gas infrastructure. The Gazprom cluster at Ust Luga, Nov...

It’s all about the trade war
CHILE · Report · 17 Sep 2019 · 1 response

The economy continues to cool. The Central Bank has revised its projections for 2019 GDP growth downward for the third consecutive time. The forecast range has fallen from 3.25%-4.25% in December 2018 to 2.25%-2.75% with a downward bias in September 2019 (the Central Bank stretches its forecast r...

2019–2022 outlook: new government, stabilization, and recovery
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 17 Sep 2019

We forecast Venezuela’s GDP, oil output and exports, inflation, and external accounts through 2022 assuming that an internationally brokered deal will lead to an interim government and new elections in 2020 and that the opposition will win and be able to govern starting in 2021. In our foreca...

The clock is ticking
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Sep 2019 · 1 response

Low inflation rates of 0.14% (cumulative) and 0.33% (y/y), together with lower-than-expected tax collections as of September, and a large contraction in non-oil import growth, which fell from 16.6% to 2.2% as of July, speak of economic stagnation. The consumer confidence index also fell, to 36.2 ...

BOP: from negative to positive
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Sep 2019

The latest balance of payments (BOP) accounts, which record residents’ transactions with non-residents for the first half of 2019, reveal quite a reversal: from net outflows of $3.3 billion in 1H18 to net inflows of $4.8 billion 1H19. The data show that this large difference, totaling $8 billion,...

President Ramaphosa remains focused on his investment drive to revive SA’s economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 16 Sep 2019

Towards the end of August 2019, President Ramaphosa attended the seventh Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD VII) in Japan. The aim of the summit is to expand partnership between Japan and African states. However, the President of South Africa (SA) used this meeting as an...

Difficult but necessary tax reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Sep 2019

President Jair Bolsonaro returns to the presidency after medical leave. In the Senate, Tasso Jereissati makes changes to the Pension Reform text and presents his report on plenary amendments. In the economy, we highlight the Central Bank meeting to set the benchmark interest rate. The government ...

Economics: Stable finance vs. bullish growth
MEXICO · Report · 16 Sep 2019

The minister of finance deemed the administration of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s 2020 budget assumptions and proposals “conservative”, but many analysts, specialists and ratings agencies beg to differ, deeming them “optimistic”. Conscious of the extent to which whatever credibility it...

Politics: Words, deeds and budgets
MEXICO · Report · 16 Sep 2019

If a government wants to assure that it will deliver on the promises it has made, it has to come up with budgets that are in keeping with such commitments to the public. But when we look at the federal government’s revenue and spending budgets for 2020, there appear to be a series of disconnects ...

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