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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Import substitution runs into difficulties
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Apr 2019

Putin's economic aide Andrei Belousov said that national projects are to use Russian equipment insofar as possible. These projects were announced in May 2018. Belousov ordered the Ministry of Trade and Industry to draw up a list of Russian equipment for these projects and to propose legislative a...

Last year’s deep pessimism seems to have abated
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Apr 2019 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * While China’s first quarter GDP growth came in above expectations, at 6.4 percent year on year, this does not represent the recovery in the underlying economy that many analysts are claiming, not because the growth numbers are fake but simply bec...

China’s private stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 Apr 2019

China has a significant economic “hangover” from the ten-year-old fiscal stimulus in 2009. That stimulus relied primarily on bank loans as a quick injection of capital to rejuvenate economic growth. Since then, policy has shifted through several phases and a variety of financial intermediaries an...

Ukrainian presidential debate will probably not save Poroshenko
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Apr 2019

The two Ukrainian presidential candidates are due to debate at 19:00 local time today. President Poroshenko is hoping he can expose his challenger Zelenskiy as a leightweight. Even if it goes well for Poroshenko it is probably too late as polling day is April 21. One poll showed 72% of people wil...

Healthy profits for Russian hydrocarbons but no coherent strategy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Apr 2019

OPEC + is considering how to handle the market supply balance. Oil prices are reaching USD 70 a barrel. This is good news for Rosneft and other Russian oil companies. Russia has only reduced production by half as much as OPEC asked. OPEC members are considering raising production. Too abrupt a pr...

GDP growth between 1% and 1.5% in 2019
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Apr 2019

Analyzing the latest data, along with the recent performance of activity and the perspectives for the coming quarters, we have revised our growth projection for 2019 downward. The interval of our new projection is between 1% and 1.5%, with bias towards the lower limit​. At the end of 2018 ther...

Postponement of the Pension Reform in the CCJ
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Apr 2019

The postponement of the Pension Reform vote for the next week reduces the chance of the Lower House concluding the vote before the recess (July 18). According to a timetable drawn up by Arko Advice, if all the minimum procedural deadlines were met, and without any hitch in the political articu...

'Tightening' has made monetary conditions looser
HUNGARY · Forecast · 17 Apr 2019 · 1 response

On March 26, the MNB carried out a small policy tightening, for the first time since December 2011. However, what was done fell short of the market’s expectations, and so it led to a moderately weaker forint and, consequently, to somewhat looser monetary conditions. This was because the MNB combi...

​IMPORTANT NOTE: Istanbul elections are not yet concluded
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Apr 2019

Ekrem Imamoglu was certified by the provincial election council as mayor of Istanbul. This is a positive development, but it doesn’t mean the appeals process is over. AKP is pursuing a multi-pronged strategy. First, the verdict by the provincial city council will be challenged at High Election Co...

German investment in Russia highest since 2008
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Apr 2019

German investment in Russia reached over EUR 3 billion in 2018. This was the highest figure since 2008. However, in those 10 years the number of German businesses in Russia declined from 6 000 to 4 500. The 2018 investment figure was EUR 3.2 billion: a twofold increase on the 2017 figure.Germany ...

St Petersburg wins instead of Kazan in High Speed Rail plan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Apr 2019

President Putin has signed off on a plan to improve High Speed Rail (HSR) between Moscow and St Petersburg. The plan for the HSR from Moscow to Nizhny Novgorod and then to Kazan has been aborted. Putin wants to upgrade HSR between Moscow and St Petersburg which is his native city. Lack of resourc...

Indonesia: Quick Count Result
INDONESIA · In Brief · 17 Apr 2019

Indonesian Presidential Election has been done in Indonesia today, April 17, 2019 peacefully. There were no reports of conflicts during the election done throughout the islands of Indonesia. As predicted by majority of polling companies, President Jokowi won the election based on the quick count ...

Cyril Ramaphosa’s ideal cabinet – a complicated crossroad
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Apr 2019

For almost all analysts, the working assumption is that the May 8, 2019 elections will bring the ANC alliance back to power, albeit with a reduced majority. In our previous reports (March 28, April 5 and April 11), we have analyzed the various forces at play and the implications of different elec...

​Albayrak meets Trump to resolve S-400 crisis
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Apr 2019 · 1 response

I can anticipate that many among our audience would also like to hear about Istanbul elections, but there is nothing I can add to my analysis articulated in the last Weekly Tracker.AKP has lodged an extraordinary challenge to the election results, kicking the ball to High Election Board’s court.T...

Higher than expected inflation drives BCRA to announces new monetary measures
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 16 Apr 2019

Today, during the IPOM presentations and shortly after March CPI was published by the INDEC (with a higher than expected monthly inflation rate of 4.7%m/m and an annual rate of 54.7%y/y), the BCRA announced new measures regarding the FX band and banking regulation, in an effort to control inflati...

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