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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation views
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Sep 2019

Government yesterday released inflation data for August showing the headline rate dropping from 2.4% in July to 1.7%, largely due to base effects as well as lower fuel and electricity prices.The latest inflation print is in line with our forecast and we reiterate here what we said in our outlook ...

MNB governor calls for looser fiscal policy, pleased with the current policy line of the MNB
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Sep 2019

MNB governor Matolcsy spoke yesterday at the annual conference of the Hungarian Society of Economics. In his usual visionary style, he enlisted a large number of negative international phenomena from Brexit and East-West trade war to the weak German economy, Italy's problems, North-South conflict...

The current account deficit widens further in Q2 2019
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Sep 2019

Earlier this week, the South African economy escaped a technical recession in the second quarter of 2019 when the real GDP growth numbers showed an increase of 3.1% q/q. However, today, the South African Reserve Bank released the current account of the balance of payments data, indicating yet an...

Prime rate cut by 0.5 ppt down to 16.5%; Premier demands cheaper loans
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Sep 2019

The NBU keeps easing course. The NBU Board approved one more policy rate cut by 0.5 ppt down to 16.5%. Slowing inflation, strong hryvnia, finalized election cycle with encouraging appointments to the Cabinet leave no reason to keep prime rate elevated. Still many experts were disappointed with mo...

Russia sells arms to India worth USD 14.5 billion
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Sep 2019

Russia is selling arms of all sorts to India. The total has cost USD 14.5 billion in 2018 and 2019 combined. Frigates, light arms and an S-400 missile defense system are all part of the order. India sent a delegation to the economic forum in Vladivostok. It was led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi...

Political uncertainty hampers growth
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 05 Sep 2019

Economic activity growth declined in Q2. GDP expansion reached 3.7%, compared with Q2 2018, and notably below the 5.7% observed in Q1. The result for H1 was growth of 4.7%. There is a broad consensus that political uncertainty has been the main cause for this slowdown. In July IMAE growth rebound...

Private companies might be allowed to operate in the Russian Arctic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Sep 2019

On September 4 the Russian Government announced that it may permit private companies to work in the Arctic providing services to oil and gas companies. The oil and gas sector in the Arctic is still all state sector. The announcement was made at an economic forum held in Vladivostok on Russia's Pa...

Russian court orders seizure of stake in Vostochny Bank
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Sep 2019

Private equity company Baring Vostok's stake in Vostochny Bank has been seized by court order. 334 billion shares controlled by Baring Vostok have been taken. The Arbitration Court of Amur Region gave the order. The court's rationale was that Baring Vostok must be prevented from selling the share...

Economics: Signs of an Economy Stalling
MEXICO · Report · 03 Sep 2019

At the beginning of the month some observers were slightly relieved to hear that the preliminary reading of second quarter GDP showed some growth on a seasonally adjusted basis compared both to the first quarter of 2019 and the April through June period of 2018. But at month’s end Inegi released ...

Over the hump?
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 03 Sep 2019

Domestic economic growth has slowed, and external clouds are gathering. Can GDP growth rebound to above 6%? The next 18 months will depend upon greater accommodation from fiscal and monetary policies, as well as more clarity in government reform efforts to counter the many downside risks. An...

From Macri’s failed political strategy to Fernández’s wishful economic thinking
ARGENTINA · Report · 03 Sep 2019

Since he lost the August 12th primary, President Mauricio Macri’s policies have changed drastically: he’s been forced to implement measures suggested by his victorious challenger, Alberto Fernández, who is now on track to win the Oct. 27th general election to become the country’s next president. ...

All set now for a substantial rate cut
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Sep 2019 · 1 response

Consumer price inflation came in at 0.86%, m/m, in August, which was notably lower than the consensus and our forecast of 1.3%. As a result, 12-month rate declined more than expected to 15% from 16.6% in July. Likewise, producer prices fell in the month by 0.6%, taking the 12-month rate sharply l...

The South African economy bounces back, narrowly avoids another H1 technical recession in just two years
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 03 Sep 2019

Similar to the past year, the country once again waited to find out if South Africa’s economy was in a technical recession in the first half of the year, which would have made it the second consecutive one. The past year’s results had indeed indicated that the country had experienced a technical ...

Politics: What the next Congress may bring
MEXICO · Report · 02 Sep 2019

With President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Party together with its allies wielding a qualified majority in the Chamber of Deputies and just shy of one in the Senate as the new session of Congress gets underway, their legislative agenda becomes de facto that of the entire Congress. And judging b...

Reintroduction of capital controls
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 02 Sep 2019 · 2 responses

The debt rescheduling announcements of last week, as might have been expected, did little to calm markets anxiety and, on the contrary, acted as a coordination signal to spur capital flight, forcing the BCRA to continue selling reserves to keep the dollar value in check.Also, bank withdrawals of ...

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