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Another tiny MNB step in the tightening direction
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Apr 2019

Following a 10 bps increase in the O/N deposit rate from March 27, the MNB carried out its second small step on its road towards monetary tightening yesterday. This was a HUF10bn reduction of the outstanding stock of FX swaps, to HUF1979bn, from April 3 as the value date.As well known to the read...

Conference Call: Turkey's political trajectory after the elections: Is it the elections or the S-400’s?
TURKEY · Presentation · 02 Apr 2019

A conference call by Atilla Yesilada on Turkey's political trajectory after the elections: Is it the elections or the S-400’s? How will the outcome of the municipal elections in Turkey determine the country’s monetary policy and path of the currency going forward? Will the political crisis invol...

​What now?
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Apr 2019 · 1 response

Assuming Istanbul stays in CHP hands, I now declare CHP-IYIP alliance the victor of the local elections.This declaration is not about my perception of the result, but how I think the rank and file of AKP would read it.As I have said several times before, Turkish politics is about cronyism and pat...

JEP-XIT
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Apr 2019

President Iván Duque’s objection to six articles of the Special Peace Jurisdiction (JEP) Act has created a Brexit moment for Colombia. Duque had two alternatives: first, even if he disliked the peace agreement, he could have accepted it, and have tried to impose the rule of law. This would have “...

GUATEMALA: All eyes on a crowded field
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 01 Apr 2019

Guatemala. Elections and expectations for the new presidency will be the main focus in Guatemala this year.The first round of voting, which could include as many as 24 candidates, is set for June 16th. If no candidate wins 50% of the vote, plus 1 vote more, there’ll a runoff on August 11th. The n...

Monetary Policy: Serenity Signal
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Apr 2019

For some time now, the Central Bank has been warning of the risks of frustration of the reforms needed for fiscal consolidation and deterioration of the external scenario. Last week, the tension between the executive and legislative branches raised doubts about the magnitude of the pension reform...

Economics: March economic data pointing south
MEXICO · Report · 01 Apr 2019

During the third month of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s time in office the economic news remained mixed, but overall, disappointing and negative numbers predominated, including leading indicators. The coincident index and readings of consumption and investment all pointed to a slowing o...

Politics: Limits to AMLO’s vast public support
MEXICO · Report · 01 Apr 2019

Three months into his administration, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has further grown his approval ratings (up 7pp since December, to 64%) even as those disapproving climbed from a fifth to a fourth of voters. People remain generally optimistic about the government, although slightly less...

Pension reform back on track and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Apr 2019

Bolsonaro returns from his trip to Israel on April 3. Also on April 3, Paulo Guedes speaks at public hearing in the Lower House CCJ. In the Senate, bill that annuls the presidential decree removing visa requirements for tourists from Australia, Canada, USA and Japan may be voted upon, along with ...

Zelenskiy wins first round of Ukrainian presidential election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2019

As we predicted Zelenskiy came top in the first round. What surprised everyone is how he outperformed the polls and won 30%. Sitting President Poroshenko came second with a distant 16%. Yulia Tymoshenko came third. Poroshenko's foes said he would rig the poll. There is scant evidence of this. Por...

​Indonesia: On the run-up to the presidential election
INDONESIA · Report · 01 Apr 2019

In the month of March, everyone in the country was stung by election fever - not only intellectuals or the middle class, but also people at the grass-roots level. In fact, one candidate used a strategy effectively implemented by President Donald Trump, which is “the firehose of the falsehood” str...

Rate hike likely at the end of May
ISRAEL · Report · 01 Apr 2019

Most economic indicators point to some acceleration of growth in Q1 2019, to 3.5%-4% saar. This is above Israel's growth potential, estimated at 2.7% by the Bank of Israel. Inflation is expected to accelerate to 1.6% y/y in April (from the current 1.2%), making a rate hike on May 28 increasingly ...

​Everyone is a winner, but some more so than others
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Apr 2019

At 07:00 am Istanbul time, High Election Council (HEC) kept mum about who won Istanbul, as both candidates claimed victory by the tiniest of margins.Social media is aflame with rumors of skirmishes within HEC, with at least one of the judges injured.Yet, I shall not play the forensics poll analys...

Welcome to the jungle
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2019

It is 2:00 Monday, Istanbul time, or 2 hours after Mr. Yildirimdeclared victory in Istanbul, even though according to the unofficial tally of Anatolian Agencyroughly 110K of votes had remained to be counted, with Yildirim only ahead by 4,441. Then, CHP candidate Imamoglu and chairman Kilicdaroglu...

​Istanbul at razor’s edge, Erdogan downcast
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2019

At 22:48 Turkey time, with 96% of the votes counted, Yildirim’s lead in Istanbul shrank to 60K votes, as the few opposition TV channels began to complain about irregularities.In some of the less pro-AKP channels, impartial experts still predict Yildirim winning by 30K votes or so, and being so fa...

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