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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Shekel appreciation will support lower inflation and stable rates
ISRAEL · Report · 29 Jul 2019

Highlights: The shekel appreciated by 0.8% last week (against the basket). * We think the shekel has strengthened in part due to the divergence of monetary policies, with the BoI still projecting a tightening bias while most other central banks are reducing rates. * The shekel ha...

Vizcarra finishes his National Day speech with a bombshell
PERU · In Brief · 28 Jul 2019

A few hours ago, president Martin Vizcarra delivered the customary July 28thspeech before Congress where as usual he enumerated his government´s achievements during the last 12 months. However, towards the end of his presentation the President explained that the Executive Branch proposals for a p...

Sweet dreams are made of this
TURKEY · Forecast · 28 Jul 2019

Fed’s dovish pivot, ‘constructive ambiguity’ around the S-400 tensions between Turkey and the US, and last but certainly not least, the usual market complacency gave Turkish assets a fairly unexpected boost lately. Since our last quarterly report (of May 10, 2019), Turkey’s risk premium (CDS) has...

Mail.ru and Sberbank start a joint venture
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jul 2019

On July 25 it was announced that Sberbank and Mail.ru are setting up a joint venture. The agreement is due to be signed in the fall. It will then need to be approved by regulators so there is a small chance that this JV will not go ahead. It will be a platform for online to offline services in tr...

Moscow government strong-arming local elections
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 27 Jul 2019

Protests have returned – albeit modestly – to Moscow’s streets during the last two weeks. They have not attracted much international attention because of their relatively low numbers (a couple of thousand attended on July 14). However, as the authorities failed to control protesters, on July 22 a...

Remarks from the conference call - Duterte defined: His SONA and his legacy
PHILIPPINES · Report · 26 Jul 2019

GlobalSource Partners hosted a conference call on July 24, 2019, featuring Philippine Country Analyst Romeo Bernardo. This report is a transcript of his remarks on the call, which shed light on the dynamics of the economy and provided perspective on the country's macro and political prospects. Th...

Warning from the MNB: FX swaps can move both ways
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Jul 2019

The lack of any tightening measure and a further little change in the statement's language towards a more relaxed mode at Tuesday's (July 23) rate-setting meeting, combined with the ECB's softening tone yesterday, have pushed the forint to slightly weaker levels, to EURHUF 326.5 and USDHUF 293.2 ...

Russian tax authority setting up database
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jul 2019

On July 24 it was announced that the Russian Parliament is seeking to create a database of all people in Russia. The database will reveal family connections. It is to be launched in 2022 and completed in 2025. The ostensible ground for doing this is that it will facilitate tax collection. However...

Tension between Russia and South Korea
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Jul 2019

South Korea accused Russian warplanes of violating its airspace on July 24. The South Korean Air Force claimed to have fired warning shots at the Russian jets. Moscow vehemently denied any such incident took place. The Russian Air Force was certainly conducting a joint exercise with the Chinese i...

South Africa’s economy – still struggling to take off
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 25 Jul 2019

* South Africa’s growth: President Ramaphosa’s number one priority is to stimulate the South African economy, an economy that has been in the doldrums, growing by less than 2% in the past five years. This is especially important as some of the country’s main socio-economic scourges have either...

​CBRT opens up easing round with 425 pips
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Jul 2019

As our economics guru Dr Murat Ucer is in transit, his acolyte Atilla Yesilada is reporting on CBRT MPC decision. It may have surprised the participants in sundry polls which anticipated 200-250 basis point rate cut, but didn’t surprise us (we penciled in 300-350, with an upside bias), when CBRT ...

OMAN: Fiscal silence ends with lower deficit and a likely issuance
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 25 Jul 2019

After months of disconcerting silence on fiscal data, Oman has announced a surprising improvement in its deficit, Fitch has affirmed its rating and the Sultanate has seized the opportunity to promptly appoint bankers for a new bond issuance. We doubt the fiscal outturn for the rest of 2019 will b...

Xi promises more openness
CHINA · Report · 24 Jul 2019

GDP rose 6.2% y/y in Q2, down 0.2 pps from Q1. Industrial output rose 5.6% y/y, down 0.9 pps, but notably, was up 6.3% y/y in June, obviously higher than in April and May. We judge the unusually high June growth to be a seasonal phenomenon, and unsustainable. Fixed asset investment was up 5.5%...

​Hotel Transition at Crossroads
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jul 2019 · 1 response

Our muses permitting, in a few days, the Global Source Partners Turkey team will issue its flagship Quarterly Report. By its very design the Quarterly is concise and forward-looking. The humble Politics Author felt the need to explain his view of the coming 12 monthsin detail to make sure nothing...

Lower inflation and incipient recovery improves economic prospects
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 23 Jul 2019

Monthly inflation fell from 4.7% in March to 2.7% in June. Early indicators, based on online prices, suggest that monthly inflation may end July at close to 2%. And economic activity indicators, though still in negative territory compared with 2018, show improvements with respect to Q1 2019. This...

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