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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: Ineffective strategies to rescue Pemex
MEXICO · Report · 20 May 2019

Since international ratings agencies began downgrading Pemex debt late last year, the government has appeared to be flaying about in its efforts to placate critics, piling errors on top of contradictions and leaving the oil company even more vulnerable and devoid of prospects for improving condit...

Politics: Implications of the new labor reform
MEXICO · Report · 20 May 2019

The Mexican Congress passed a broad reform of the country’s labor laws a month ago, perhaps the most significant institutional change introduced in the less than six months the administration of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has been in office. The reform undoubtedly brings positive chang...

A tragic week for the government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 May 2019 · 1 response

This is a crucial week for the government in the Lower House, with nine provisional measures on the agenda that risk expiring if they are not voted upon, including the regulatory framework for sanitation (PM 868/18) and the reorganization of the Executive branch (PM 870/19). The government releas...

COSTA RICA: Unemployment with stability
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 20 May 2019

In Costa Rica, President Carlos Alvarado stated in his first “state of the country” address on May 2nd that the country had been on the brink of a fiscal crisis in H2 2018, but that timely decisions by the executive branch and Congress -- in particular, passage of a fiscal reform law -- had put C...

Russian GDP growth down to 0.55 in Q1
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 May 2019

Figures released on May 17 show Russia's economic growth reveals only 0.5% yoy growth in the first quarter of 2019. This is worse than the Ministry of Economic Development's anticipated 0.8%. By contrast Bloomberg said a survey of economists had predicted 1.2% growth.This is a dramatic slowdown f...

Essential CIS Politics: May 2019
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 20 May 2019

* A very mixed month for Russia with short-term good news on oil prices and other sectors of the economy. National projects and economic growth continue to move at a snail’s pace. * The situation in Venezuela and Libya is very uncertain for Russia with Russia gambling heavily on its favored l...

Prime minister Groysman resigns
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 May 2019

Volodymyr Zelenskiy during his inauguration speech was very harsh and critical on the work of the Cabinet of Volodymyr Groysman. It did not take long for Groysman to make a decision. He has just announced his intention to resign. He will be acting Prime minister till new Cabinet is appointed. But...

Rate stability expected today on global risks, soft inflation and strong shekel
ISRAEL · Report · 20 May 2019

Highlights: GDP growth reached 5.2% saar in Q1 2019. * Excluding import taxes, GDP growth was 3.7%, following 3.0% in Q4 2018. * PC growth reached 7.6%, exports: 6.2% and investments: 10%. Inflation surprised on the downside in April (0.3%), slowing to 1.3% y/y (from 1.4% in March)...

Zelenskiy announced parliament dismissal
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 May 2019

Volodymyr Zelenskiy during his innauguration speach announced itention to dismiss the parliament. He also mentioned that MPs will have two months to do good things for the country meaning that he expects new parliamentary elections in July.

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner runs for vice-president
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 20 May 2019

In a very professionally produced video, with a strong emotional language, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) confirmed this Saturday that she would run in August in the primary election for president with Alberto Fernandez, the former Chief of Cabinet during Nestor Kirchner’s mandate. The surp...

​The re-election machinery is underway
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 19 May 2019

The re-election machinery is underway Although, as has been discussed in recent reports and briefs, a formal proposal to amend the Constitution allowing President Medina to opt for a third term has not been sent to Congress, the political machinery that promotes re-election is in full swing. Many...

Geopolitical risks rise further
TURKEY · Report · 19 May 2019

US-Iran tensions, the exploration controversy in waters surrounding the divided island Cyprus and new attacks on rebel positions in Syria’s Idlib Province compound Turkey’s political woes. We consider only Idlib a serious problem for national security and for AKP’s chances of taking Istanbul back...

Public applauds crackdown on the political class
PERU · Report · 17 May 2019

All four Peruvian ex-presidents since 2001, a Lima ex-mayor and several regional governors are being investigated in relation to contributions from Brazilian construction firms. Prosecutors have secured information from such firms under arrangements providing immunity to their officials in return...

Poll results: Reelection is highly unpopular but Medina remains popular
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 17 May 2019

At the beginning of May, the results of the first two well-known political surveys were published: Mark Penn and Gallup-Hoy. The most outstanding are the following: 1) An amendment of the Constitution to allow President Medina to run for a third term is rejected by a solid majority (60% -70%). 2)...

South Africa’s list of MPs causes some disgruntlement while the nation awaits the appointment of President Ramaphosa’s new cabinet
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 May 2019

Now that the general elections have come and gone, the focus in South Africa has shifted back to the African National Congress (ANC) and the integrity of its members, particularly those that will be representing the party in parliament. President Cyril Ramaphosa has based his two campaigns – the ...

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